Can terrorists win a war of attrition? One of the best ways to answer to this question is to compare the relative cost/benefit ratios of the combatants. Currently, this comparison is decidedly against nation-states. For example, the economic cost of 9/11 to the US ($83 billion) was five orders of magnitude higher than the costs of the attack to the terrorists (estimated to be $500,000). As Donald Rumsfeld said, "The cost-benefit ratio is against us! Our cost is billions against the terrorists' cost of millions." Fortunately, many terrorist attacks today do not fit the model of 9/11 given their focus on bloodletting and bodycounts. Unfortunately, that will change as terrorists become global guerrillas and begin to focus on the disruption of systems.
Tip Jar
April 2013
Books To Read
Edward N. Luttwak: The Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire
Joseph Tainter: The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology)
Nick Reding: Methland: The Death and Life of an American Small Town
A chronicle of the impact of globalization on small town America.Misha Glenny: McMafia: A Journey Through the Global Criminal Underworld (Borzoi Books)
This is a detailed backgrounder on the rise of transnational criminal groups in every region of the world. Great read!Dmitry Orlov: Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
Thought provoking analysis of the Soviet Union's collapse and its implications for the US.Benerson Little: The Sea Rover's Practice: Pirate Tactics and Techniques, 16301730
Excellent review and analysis of the tactics and social structure of piracy. Separates fact from fiction.John Arquilla: Our Own Worst Enemy: The Reluctant Transformation of the American Military
Just finished an early review copy (it's available for preorder). Excellent insight into how to revitalize the US military.- Frans P. Osinga: Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd
The "go to" reference on Boyd's thinking. The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual
The US military's approach to Maoist Insurgency.Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
An excellent book on uncertainty. Nassim's premise is that the big events that shape the world aren't predictable. He provides ways to identify them early.Frans Osinga: Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd (Strategy and History Series)
An essential resource on Boyd's theory of warfare.Mike Davis: Buda's Wagon: A Brief History of the Car Bomb
A micro-history of smart lo-tech weapons that use humans for terminal guidance.John Robb: Brave New War
The future of global security. Available today!Robert Young Pelton: Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror
A history of the rise of the modern mercenary industry. The author provides an excellent "feel" for the current personalities and their ambitions.Fred Charles Iklé: Annihilation from Within: The Ultimate Threat to Nations
The impact of rapidly advancing technological progress on security.Steven Johnson: Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software
A great overview of emergent intelligence.Thomas P.M. Barnett: Blueprint for Action : A Future Worth Creating
Can big states survive in rapidly evolving global threat environment?Chet Richards: Neither Shall the Sword: Conflict in the Years Ahead
Chet makes the argument for privatizing large sections of the US military and turning it into a flexible force that can respond effectively to non-state threats.ROBERT BUNKER: Networks, Terrorism and Global Insurgency
Excellent collection of writing by some leading thinkers in 21st Century military theory. Use a corporate account to buy it (it's expensive).Samuel P. Huntington: The CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS AND THE REMAKING OF WORLD ORDER
Excellent overview of why global guerrilla movements are proliferating.Francis Fukuyama: The End of History and the Last Man
Contains the assumption upon which the US is building nations in Iraq and Afghanistan.Moises Naim: Illicit : How Smugglers, Traffickers and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy
This book details the market mechanism underlying the emergence of global terrorism. It demonstrates, with excellent examples, how non-state threats are growing faster than the ability of states to respond to them. A must read.Hakim J Hazim: American Realism Revisited : Lethal Minds & Latent Threats
A great way to gain insight into militant cults. Worth the time.Thomas X. Hammes: The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century
Good discussion of 4th generation warfare (from the perspective of Mao and Ho). Great foundation for further study.Robert Pape: Dying to Win : The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
Martin Van Creveld: The Rise and Decline of the State
A detailed description of the decline of the state.
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Thursday, 06 May 2004
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Articles in the Press
On Brave New War
- Purchase Brave New War
- New York Times Op-Ed
...a fast, thought-sparking book.. -- David Brooks - Greenpeace
I read it twice and bought six copies for my friends -- John Passacantando (Exec. Dir. Greenpeace) - G. Gordon Liddy Show (radio)
...this is a seminal book in the truest sense of the term.. way ahead of the curve... go out and buy it right now -- G. Gordon Liddy - City Journal
Robb has written an important book that every policymaker should read -- Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) - Small Wars Journal
Without reservation Brave New War is for professional students of irregular warfare and for any citizen who wants to understand emerging trends and the dark potential of 4GW -- Frank Hoffman - Scripps Howard News Service
A brilliant new book published by terrorism expert John Robb, titled "Brave New War," hit stores last month with virtually no fanfare. It deserves both significant attention and vigorous debate... - Thomas P.M. Barnett - Chet Richards DNI
John has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice... - Washington Times / UPI
Robb correctly finds the antidote to 4GW not in Soviet-style state structures such as the Department of Homeland Security, but in decentralization -- William Lind (the father of 4th generation warfare). - Robert Paterson
Having painted a crystal clear picture of how a war of networks is playing out, he comes to an astonishing conclusion that I hope he fills out in his next book. - The Daily Dish
John Robb of Global Guerrillas has written the most important book of the year, Brave New War. - Daily Dish (The Atlantic) - Simulated Laughter
Well-written. Brave New War reads more like an action novel than a ponderous policy book. - Adam Elkus - FutureJacked
Go buy a copy of this book. Now. If you are low on cash, skip a few lunches and save up the cash. It is worth it. - Michael Flagg - ZenPundit
The second audience is composed of everyone else. Brave New War is simply going to blow them away. - Mark Safranski - Haft of the Spear
There aren’t a lot of books that make me recall a 12-year-old self aching for the next issue of The Invincible Iron Man to hit the shelves. Well done. - Michael Tanji - Ed Cone
His book posits an Army of Davids -- with the traditional nation state in the role of Goliath. - Ed Cone (Ziff Davis) - The Newshoggers
I highly recommend reading and re-reading this work. - Fester - Shloky.com
This is the first real text on next generation warfare designed for the general population and it sets the bar high for following acts. It is smart, it is a short read, and it will change your thinking. - Shlok Vaidya - Politics in the Zeros
I suggest this is something Lefties need to start thinking about now, as that decentralized world is coming. - Bob Morris - Hidden Unities
A thoughtful book that should be read more widely than the latest Tom Friedman whopper, Chalmers Johnson scare tale or Bill Kristol hack fest. - EB
Top Briefs
- 4GW -- Fourth Generation Warfare
- A SHADOW OPEC
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- ALEXANDER THE GREAT AND THE SCYTHIANS
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- CASCADING SYSTEM FAILURE
- CHECHEN ECONOMIC ASSAULT ON RUSSIA
- DESIGN FLAWS: METHODS OF ATTACKING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
- DESTABILIZING TERRORIST NETWORKS
- EFFECTS BASED OPERATIONS
- EMERGENT COMMUNITIES DEDICATED TO WAR
- FEAR MANAGEMENT
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- GLOBAL WARRIORS
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- GUERRILLA ENTREPRENEURS
- HOMEMADE MICROWAVE WEAPONS
- INFRASTRUCTURE MELTDOWNS
- IRAQ: ELECTRICITY DISRUPTION
- LONG TAIL COUNTER-INSURGENCY
- LOYALIST PARAMILITARIES
- MAPPING TERRORIST NETWORKS
- MERCENARIES UNBOUND
- NETWORKED TRIBES
- PARTIAL vs. COMPLETE SYSTEM DISRUPTION
- PIERCING THE CORPORATE VEIL
- PRIMARY LOYALTIES
- SCALE-FREE NETWORKS
- SCENARIO: CHECHEN INDEPENDENCE (I)
- SCENARIO: CHECHEN INDEPENDENCE (II)
- SCENARIO: THE DISRUPTION OF SAUDI ARABIA
- SIZING THE IRAQI INSURGENCY
- STATE FAILURE 101
- STIGMERGIC LEARNING
- TARGET: CORPORATE PSYCHOLOGY
- TARGET: GHAWAR
- TARGET: HALLIBURTON
- TARGET: INVESTMENT
- TARGET: IRAQI OIL PRODUCTION
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