JOURNAL: Is Nigeria the next failed state?

State failure, particular states with large muslim populations, is a catalyst for the growth of non-state terrorism. So, recent reports genocide in Nigeria should be setting off alarm bells throughout the US national security establishment. It isn't. This is particularly worrisome given Nigeria supplies 15% of US oil. For more on what the US should be doing see the post: WEAK, FAILED, AND COLLAPSED STATES. Remember, it is much less expensive to prevent state failure than to resurrect a state that has failed.

Comments

[Mike]

Failed state? Or not very trustworthy supplier? One in the same, that I know you buy into.

> Remember, it is much less expensive to prevent state failure than to resurrect a state that has failed. <

Yes, it is cheaper to exploit resources if we can prevent them from losing all order. Installing a dictator would work - that's a tactic we have used repeatedly over time.

Perhaps the US - all of us - should actually have reduction of consumption on our to-do lists. The US uses 25% of world energy output yet has only 4% of the population. China and India use less but have together almost 50% of world population.

The US produces more GDP $ per capita than other advanced economies - roughly 10 - 13% more depending on country compared (look at most European economies) but uses DOUBLE the energy to do so. That is hugely wasteful. 60% of oil consumption goes to transportation.

So yes, a large part of our consumption is based on personal choices we all make; on the cities we build, on factors we once could have controlled easily (same issue at its core as acting *now* to prevent failed states) way back when but now have enslaved ourselves to a policy of acquiring through any means possible the oil to drive our lifestyle.

Do we really care about terrorism and Iran, for example, or is our foreign policy based too much on having to "save face" and do deals with the Iranians to our own (and Israel's) dismay? Somehow Japan, India, China and others seem willing to enter into commercial contracts; we only seem willing to create failed states and invade. Its not like that's a new tactic, just new for this century.

As McKinley would say, the "problem with Iraq is there are too many damn Iraqi's". He said that about the Phillipines while vowing to make them happy American subjects even if we had to kill half of them. How different are we now?

I'm a card carrying conservative from way back and am quite disgusted with the direction the neoconservative, neo-colonial / neo-imperial leadership of the country has taken. And its not just a Republican vs Democrat difference in opinion - our society is chained to these policies dating back decades.

Perhaps a little off topic but if you are going to talk about Weak and Failed States and what we should do about them at least a discussion on why we are there - and why we are threatening Iran, why we are in Iraq - should be part of that analysis.

[nathan]

Mike--
your right about personal choices being part of this. Foriegn oil is a drug for the west.

About dictators.

Under Clinton Madelene Albright said something like this (she was taking about Guatemala):
"We've got to be against dictators. We’ve got to stop saying ‘yes he’s an evil dictator, but he’s OUR evil dictator.” That really hit home with me emotionally.

Then I read an unrelated blurb by some CIA field agent which went like this:

“Look, the Shah of Iran was a dictator, he subjugated, murdered, tortured his own people. Under him the oil flowed.
The Ayatollah of Iran is a dictator, he subjugates, murders, and tortures his own people. Under him several hundred American citizens were kidnapped and held for over a year. You do the math.” That hit home with me intellectually.

[fushi]

Nigeria is becoming a state,insecurity, anger against the governmet that diverts 95% of the nations wealth,no welfare .
it is like sitting on a time bomb