IRAQ: ELECTRICITY DISRUPTION

A major failure of Iraq's CPA over the last year was its inability to increase electricity production over pre-war levels. Iraq's electricity production has been stalled between 3,000 and 4,000 megawatts (See the attached chart from the Brooking Institution), well short of the CPA goal of 6,000 megawatts. The reasons for this included:

• Antiquated and dilapidated equipment. Long term underinvestment in infrastructure and two "hot" wars had destroyed much of the electrical infrastructure.
  
• A complex network. The variety of equipment providers (from all over the globe) has made the network diffucult to fix and operate.
  
• Attacks by global guerrillas. Over 100 attacks against power lines (and over 1,200 high voltage towers) have been attacked over the last year. Additionally, attacks on fuel (oil) supplies used by powerplants has shut down production.

How a lack of power has impacted Iraq
While no one attack on power production and delivery in Iraq has been crippling, the aggregate of these small attacks has been. Today, seven of Iraq's 15 provinces get less than 8 hours of power a day. The remaining eight get only 9 to 15 a day. The direct impact of this electricity shortage is difficult to unwind, however, it is clear that it has had a signficant impact on the following areas:

• Economics (and by extension employment). Companies require power for everything from computers to manufacturing machinery. The lack of power has idled companies and prevented an increase in employment. Currently, unemployment stands at 28-45% (see attached chart on employment).
  
• Security. The rise in attacks on power systems (as well as oil systems) has caused the CPA and the Iraqi interim government to allocate nearly 30% of its forces (over 70,000 men) to infrastructure protection. This allocation of forces is at the expense of other security needs (anti-terrorism).
  
• Legitmacy. A critical aspect of legitmacy is the ability of a government to keep vital infrastructure operational. Power disruptions served to undermine the CPAs popularity and will do the same with the interim government.

What this means
The efficacy of global guerrilla strategies is being proven daily in Iraq. This success will result in the following:

• The interim government in Iraq will fail if these attacks continue. If it does, the January election will prove to be very divisive and may be a prelude to civil war.
  
• Iraqi global guerrillas will hone their skills and share them with al Qaeda.
  
• Global guerrillas will use these stategies in Saudi Arabia.

Comments

[Bill Seitz]

I wonder whether there's a more decentralized model of power generation/transmission that would be more economic in such an environment?

[Mary]

Solar would be a lot more decentralized and less susceptable to terrrorists. Here is an article about energy security in the face of terrorist attacks: http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0329/p11s02-coop.html

[Andrew McKillop]

The above URL gives "shock treatment" to my journalistic visit to California + western states, to promote my book
THE FINAL ENERGY CRISIS isbn 0745320929
Pluto Books and Univ of Michigan Press

When the book will appear is another matter - I delivered all manuscripts etc in February 2003 (oh three)

What counts is that world oil demand INCREASES as world oil prices INCREASE

Even 'Oil & Gas Journal' had to admit the figures are pretty clear - my article on the so-called "counterintuitive theory" was their lead article in their number (Vol 107, N°15)talking about The Next Big Thing - Peak Oil

Please get in touch anytime

I live in France, but need a job a real bad and am prepared to travel. It is possible I can operate as a journalist collaborator with Le Reseau Voltaite this winter, but as yet nothing is definite

[prodigalsunn]

Americans are the most dim witted people of which (george w-hat the fuck is going on Bush) is the opitomy. Really I have no clue how you became the worlds only superpower????.

I really feel sorry for your country, at the same time anger and scorn for your government.

firstly who gives america the fucken right to tell the world how to live hey, you fuck-wits had segregation abolished only 50-60 years ago.

how the fuck can you talk about democracy and freedom when your fucken faggot society still implements the death penalty and actually allows familys of victims to watch it, hahahahaha is this a joke someone call zarqawi this is right up his ally.

also your constitution allows everyone to carry a gun please sign me up for this taliban style democracy.

your country is a whore who will suck anyones dick for money and oil, and you need to get your head out of your asses if you think that you speak for democracy and the west.

Also you faggots are the only country to have used atomic weapons not on military but innocent civillian towns, why becuase you are pussies who cant fight there enemies on the ground and don`t give me this fucken bulshit about respect for american life you are plan and simply fucken pussies, oh and when you tried to fight on the ground in vietnam and saw how shit your military was and still is you ran away like the cowards you really are.

where the fuck do you get off telling the world how to act and behave when it`s you fucken counrty that has caused 99% of the worlds trouble after the cold war, buy the way of wich bin ladden and his cronies you know by know are a product of somthing you created so im glad that it has come back to bite you.

america is a fucken joke and belive it or not 90 percent of the worlds population hates you and your fucken country, what because some of the western governments actually sucked bushs dick and followed that retard into war, that the people of that country like you, think again buddy, you and your little bitch israel are the worlds two most hated and isolated countries on the face of the earth, just so you know im not a muslim and i live in the west and im not anti semetic i just hate dievant countries and yours along with israel and saudi arabia are the real axis of evil.

so fuck all you fucken faggots you may be a superpower because of your wealth, wich is due to foriegners who actually bought into you american dream fucken bulshit and inncidently became american slaves for your imperilist agenda, oh wait you listen to the u.n hahahah you cant be imperialist.

Fuck even then you ignored the world and now you have the fucken nerve to actually come crawling back to the united nations when once again your pussy aramy can`t finish the job and ask for help - get fucked ( please note: this is no way a slur on the men and women who have died in the war but when you sign up to learn how to murder the saying applies you live buy the sword you die buy the sword).

Now i laugh because the enemy you have made is not that of a state a group or even and ideology, it is of a religion, what are you going to do, try and convice the people of that religion that they should listen to america istead of alla (who is there god), ha america is doomed just like the great empires that came before it.

[Ole Stromgren]

Two things: First of all... Electrical power is a fairly central thing; see the article in the times today about the ´generator man'.
2. I was in Chile from June 1973 and 12 months on. That, incidentally, was where I had my first 911, watching planes bomb a presidential palace rather than flying into it.
The prelude, perhaps set up by with strong local engagement, (Pinochet and his allies) but probably aided by the United States Government, was a very good example of destabilization. You had strikes slowing down, and finally paralyzing the transport sector. We could see that because the Black Market rate for the dollar dropped as more and more truckers were paid their $5/day to stay off the road.

You also had, in late July, power lines being blown up, causing blackouts in Santiago. These did a good deal to unnerve or encourage the population,(depending on which side they were on) and made them think of what was about to come down.

Probably the same issues are working on peoples mental dynamics in both Afghanistan and Iraq.