FAILED STATES vs. ROGUE STATES

The key focus of our current strategy is the elimination of rogue states. The benefits include an eradication of state supported terrorism and the capacity to produce WMDs (bio and nuclear). The method we have chosen (in Iraq and Afghanistan) is to force these weak rogue states into failure/collapse. Unfortunately, as we have found, failed states are extremly difficult to reconstitute, particularly given new mechanisms like the bazaar of violence.

The question we should ask is: "is a failed state better than a rogue state?" Given failed states are unlikely to produce WMDs, this answer is yes. However, failed states are decidedly superior to rogue states in their ability to spawn, nurture, and support global guerrillas. This would be akin to a focus on WW2's endgame (Hiroshima) while ignoring everything that went on between 1939 and 1945.

Failed states provide unrestricted training grounds for multiple global guerrilla groups. They offer numerous financial opportunities (for example, half of Afghanistan's GDP is opium -- in contrast to the anti-drug Taliban). Global guerrillas are unbounded by rogue state policies and are free to innovate. Internal violence can accelerate recruitment and the development of tactical innovations. Unrestricted borders allow global guerrillas to infiltrate adjacent states (and given ubiquitous air transportation, everywhere in the world).

Failed states will provide the perfect platforms for the destabilization of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt.

Comments

[Srgtroy]

Great topic. I believe you've completely zeroed in on the present conundrum. Most of the Islamic states in the Middle East are failing. That's part of the reason radical Islam even exists, as a 'popular' answer to the failures of these states. Unfortunately, we have backed the regimes of these countries for a long time due to our own oil requirements, and now it is much harder for us to change course. Nevertheless, we need to adequately prepare for what happens when they all fail, which they ultimately will, and which is exactly what Al Qaeda wants. The future of these states is the crux of the war on terror.