Pakistan is facing a global guerrilla insurgency (modelled on the most effective parts of the Iraqi insurgency). Baloch tribesmen have begun a campaign of systems sabotage in an effort to gain coercive leverage with Pakistan's government. Fresh on the heals of their successful attack on a crucial natural gas complex (more), they have attacked railways, phone systems (cell and landline), and electricial grids across the country (both within and outside their province). 6 attacks occured in the last 24 hours alone. Based on the damage reports, these attacks may be yielding ROIs (returns on investment) of at least 1,000 to 1. If they are able to scale this ROI through the use of network analysis, Pakistan may face major consequences. It is already calling into question international investment in the country (see note below).
More importantly, it might cause a rapid decline in the delivery of basic political goods (core services), which could result in the rapid fragmentation of the country into competing centers of power (primary loyalties). This would entice other autonomous networks to join in the systems sabotage (al Qaeda could play the role of catalyst, if it decides to provide violence capital to guerrilla entrepreneurs within these networks). The net result would be a full scale bazaar powered by open source warfare in the center of Asia.
NOTE: A $4 billion proposed Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline system is now in jeapardy. Much of it would have passed through the province (however, given the national reach of these guerrillas, it wouldn't matter where in the country it was located). Pakistan planned to gain up to $500 m a year in fees from this venture. Delays on this deal alone cost Pakistan ~$42 m a month. If this is resolved in the short term, and the pipeline is put into place, disruption would have a major impact on India's economy.
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