JOURNAL: Searching for a Black Swan

The US Homeland Security department's 15 attack scenarios (Download 15-attacks.pdf) are now available.  All of the attacks listed are high casualty events (biological, chemical, radiological).  As we have seen, these large attacks are extremely rare.   

The problems with this list are numerous.  First, events of this type should be categorized as black swans -- unpredictable events.  As the security "big thinker" Bruce Schneier points out in his book "Beyond Fear", defense against black swan scenarios are a waste of limited resources.  The only thing of potential value is the development of a limited generic response and analytical capability.  Second, al Qaeda's objectives for a big attack against the US were met by 9/11.  The US is involved in a regional guerrilla war that has polarized the Islamic world (this was confirmed by the recent al Qaeda strategy document, "Idarat al-Tawahhush").  Finally, al Qaeda's capability to launch a well planned high casualty event in the US has been significantly degraded (the cohesive group size necessary to launch an operation of this type is larger than the survivable level we see today). 

My recommendation:  We need to understand what is working today in Iraq.  As my analysis indicates, it is small attacks against infrastructure and markets that cause substantial economic and social dislocation.  This is a strategy that has been recently ratified by bin Laden. 

Comments

[Osama_been_forgotten]

vis-a-vis your recommendation:
While I agree that those types of attacks have been ratified by bin Laden, I'm not convinced that the *other* terrorists have bought into that. Either that, or they're completely incapable of executing on that (maybe they're too disorganized, or maybe our "War on Terror" has had an effect on their ability to execute). Or, maybe (dons tinfoil hat) they're carrying it out, but it's being covered-up.

The Black Swans though - will be difficult to cover up. It might also be said that $57/bbl. oil is a sign of their success. But it could also be a sign of traders eager to panic. Or it could simply be that the "official story" is true: Demand is outstripping supply. That's easy to prove - and while logical fallacies abound surrounding arguments in favor of the ANWR drilling (it doesn't address the oil-supply problem in any meaningful way), the facts of China's and India's economic growth, and energy demand growth, are indisputable.

Given the Bush administration's utter failure to do anything worthwile regarding stopping illegal nuclear proliferation (didn't secure sites in Iraq, and didn't lean on Pakistan to stop Khan's efforts, which continue even today, with him under "house arrest", and they "blew our wad" in Iraq, so we no longer have any credible military leverage to use against Iran) - I'd expect "Black Swans" to be very difficult to cover up or spin as anything but what they are.

[TDL]

I think that the crux of the entry is that expending all (or most) of our resources on "Black Swans" will not allow domestic law enforcement forces to incorporate the shift in strategy, that the organizations that most want to attack the U.S., have undertaken in Iraq. It is not possible to cover up a "Black Swan"; in this context a "Black Swan" will be an event that is so huge that the government will not have any control over the dissemination of information about the event.

Regards,
TDL

[Doug]

I work for the most hated of DHS agencies, the TSA, and the emphasis lately has been on educating the workforce on the potential for suicide attacks in this country. It's not official policy, but it seems to be everyone's main concern. Thoughts on any terrorist group to carry out those types of attacks here?

[Jason Lefkowitz]

I concur with the analysis that al Qaeda has probably already gotten the black swan it wanted. But does that mean that we are clear of the threat of big, splashy black swan-style attacks?

In a Global Guerrillas-style "violence marketplace", if you are an ambitious young warlord looking to establish your brand -- to make your group the Pepsi to al-Q's Coke -- would not the most dramatic way to do so be to mount another 9/11-style black swan on U.S. soil? To show that Osama bin Laden is not the only Arab leader who can strike the hated infidel where he lives?

So far the only candidate who has emerged who seemed credibly on track to position himself this way -- Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- decided in the end that it was more profitable to become a satellite office of al-Q than to try to establish his own brand. Does this tell us more about al-Zarqawi, or about al-Q's position in the marketplace of violence?

[William Knight]

Doug wrote:
Thoughts on any terrorist group to carry out those types of attacks here?

I think two key features of the 9/11 attack provide a clue for the next most likely kind of terrorist attack in the US. First feature: they leveraged the existing infrastructure in a very efficient way (airline tickets and box-cutters in, guided gasoline missles out). Second feature: dramatic impact (collapsing symbol at heart of US power).

If I had to speculate how these two features would best define the next attack in our existing climate of heightened security, I would predict multiple coordinated Beslan-type attacks on our schools, in a variety of cities as well as small towns around the nation. The efficient leverage factor here would be the domestic acquistion of assault rifles and ammunition (much simpler than trying to acquire, smuggle and use exotic things like shoulder-fired missiles). The dramatic impact of attacking kids goes without saying.

The only hope I hold out for this scenario not happening would be the natural reluctance, even for terrorists, to kill children and consequently for the plot to be prematurely exposed. But if it's just a matter of maximal impact for minimal and easiest input, I personally can't see many scenarios that do better than this one currently. I would hope that our DHS planning is looking out for this kind of thing.

[chris]

this looks like a good site but it really needs some pictures. like not a bunch of them but one or two to show people what they look like and show them why they are called black swans. well this site has been usefull but some pictures would be great.

your website looker

chris hawkins