THE DISRUPTION OF LONDON

Al Qaeda ("The Secret Organization of Al Qaeda in Europe" -- via their Web site that has been shut down) has purportedly claimed an attack on London's transportation system. 4 coordinated attacks -- 3 on the Underground subway's Circle line and 1 on a double decker bus -- has incapacitated the metropolis during the morning rush hour. The selection of the Circle line was likely due to its centrality to the Underground network (a postmortem network analysis will demonstrate the validity of this).

The entire London transport system has been shut down and citizens have been urged to stay inside their homes (additionally the cell phone system was jammed with calls). There are reports that a significant number of people have been trapped inside subway cars due to the explosions and the shutdown. They are awaiting rescue. As one reporter noted: "It (London) feels like a ghost town."

This is a direct replay of the successful Madrid bombings and follows the pattern of system disruption we see emerging globally (a move to economic sabotage that was anticipated by this analyst). As we know, a single series of attacks on this scale will not harm a city's economics (see Urban Takedowns for more) in a lasting way. A "terrorism tax" that deflates the economic equilibrium of a major urban environment requires a series of attacks over a period of months that changes basic behavior.

Additional thoughts:

• The conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to spillover. These conflicts are not firewalls to the spread of terrorism, rather, they are training grounds for a new type of Blitzkrieg.
• Decentralized open source warfare and terrorism entrepreneurship can routinely defeat bureaucratic nation-state intelligence systems.
• Attacks of this type aren't aimed at the moral defeat of the UK's population. They are an "insult" meant to prompt more global fragmentation (an increase in military activity, isolation, and instability). Think in terms of "effects based" operations, particularly effects that damage the economies of target countries.

Comments

[Jason Lefkowitz]

Now that we've seen two attacks along the same pattern, I've been thinking about what the 9/11 Commission report said about "terrorist entrepreneurs".

Because of its structure, al Qaeda doesn't develop institutional tactics; rather it develops individuals who have their own M.O., which it then supports. So you had Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was the "crash hijacked planes into buildings" guy, and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, who was the "blow up ships" guy. Once you rolled up their operation, you basically put an end to al-Qaeda's use of their signature tactic, as al-Q moved on to invest in other more promising avenues.

So I'm wondering -- do two attacks on mass transit in European capitals mean that we're seeing the emergence of another "terrorist entrepreneur" a la KSM or al-Nashiri? Is "blowing up subways at rush hour" the latest investment of the al-Qaeda venture fund?

[Marshall Astor]

The first thing that came to my mind about the attacks in London was the UK's current love affair with security cameras and panoptic surveillance. Regardless as to whether the extensive network of cameras in London aids in the capture of the individuals involved in the bombing, would this attack be seen as a failure of that network? The other thought I had was that this might be an attack the provided hordes of video data on the movements and actions of the bombers in the hours before the attack, as well as spectacular "action shots" that would become propaganda for both sides in this conflit.

This attack is interesting, also because targets are low profile, targets of opportunity. Where the WTC attacks were against high profile sybolic targets, the London bombings were of mass transit vehicles, echoing as noted above, the Madrid bombings. Perhaps Al Queda does not have the "entrepreneurial strength" to engage major targets in Europe and the US at the moment, so they are operating at a more conservative level, either to conserve/protect resources for future attacks or they do not have the resources to engage in the kind of attacks that they wouild most like to engage in. Another way of looking at this attack is that the global marketplace of terror is now importing the kinds of small scale disruptions and attacks that are being seen in Iraq, which is essentially functioning as a technology incubator for current and future conflicts all over the globe.

Also, I've been able to find a lot of stills of the scenes of the blasts, as well as news stills and other related photos on Flickr. I'd expect by the end of the day there will be a ton of data there.

[DavidS]

"The selection of the Circle line was likely due to its centrality to the Underground network."

What seems to unite the attacks on the tube was the proximity of three mainline stations - Kings Cross, Liverpool Street and Paddington. Only the latter has not been closed by the attack.

[Dimitar Vesselinov]

Polish government building on fire

"Poland's main government building is on fire and is being evacuated, government and fire brigade officials said on Thursday.

"It is not clear if it is the result of the ongoing construction work there or something else," PAP news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Izabela Jaruga-Nowacka as saying."

http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=781544&section=news&src=rss/uk/worldNews

[Watching them, Watching Us]

The Circle Line was not the target

Accordinng to Transport for London

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/tfl/press-centre/metro/article.asp?id=483

"On Thursday at 9.46am, the London Underground was suspended and all stations commenced evacuation following incidents at: Aldgate station heading towards Liverpool Street station on the Hammersmith & City line; "

7 dead

"Russell Square station heading towards Kings Cross station on the Piccadilly line;"

21 dead

"and Edgware Road station heading towards Paddington station on the Hammersmith & City line."

5 dead

The fourth explosion was on a London Bus near Tavistock Square (close to Kings Cross / Russel Square)

(nuknown number of fatalaities - the roof was blown off, so there must be some dead)

[John Robb]

Thanks for the clarification on the lines that were attacked.

[jamie]

the attacks were in and around major network hubs from the North, East and West. As for the bomb on the bus, I think it might have gone off prematurely - or been left there if the original target was aborted. It was a No 30, which passes through central London North to South. This hints that the intended targets might have been Charing Cross Station (which covers entrance to central LOndon from the South) or Victoria (which does the same from the South West).

[Marshall Astor]

Does any one else find it strange with the target rich environment that the UK has provided in the past week that system disruption would be the method of attack, rather than an attempt to attack higher profile, symbolic targets (G8, G8 protesters, F1 race this weekend, various olympic 2012 events). I imagine that the timing is aimed at the G8 summit, but the fact that rail and bus lines were targeted, rather than the summit itself, puzzles me.

Since we can induce from the timing, that the attacks were engineered to get the attention of the G8, and because we know that the G8 and it's First World buddies will respond with "more resolve", this seems like a blatant move to keep the war(s) in the Middle East hot for some time. Like a bully, the worst thing you can do to Al Quaeda and it's international efforts is to ignore it and withdraw from direct conflict with it. Al Quaeda's long term goal is to involve the West in a lengthy destructive struggle that its citizenry does not have the stomach for, leading to a Vietnam style defeat for the US and it's allies, and a reorganisation of power in the Middle East that moves them from the illegitimacy of a stateless terror movement to the legitimacy of a state, with military, economic and politcal interests. Hopefully the G8 and their buddies won't do anything more to further that goal...

[John Robb]

Systems attacks were the primary goal because they offered more leverage, are easier, and can impact millions of people.

A chance to trump the G8 press coverage was a secondary goal. However, since governements always see themselves as the center of the universe, they tend to protect themselves better than everyone else. In this case, they took 1,500 policemen (likely the best ones) from London to protect the conference (that is just the tip of the iceberg, imagine all of the assets dedicated behind the scenes to the G8s protection) This improved the attacks potential of success.

[Mel]

I am so sick and tired of hearing about how bad Alqaeda are, now everyone is quick to judge in these situations but the eastern world has been treated badly for many centuries and organisations like Alqaeda have no other choice but to stand up and be listened to. No one seemed to care when eastern worlds were being mistreated, their people ripped off, abused, assaulted, their women being raped and killed, not to mention the suffering of their children and the opportunities and services they go without. Eastern terrorist organisations have not been listened to in the past so planning military or popular attacks is the only way they are going to achieve this, and I know this is at the disadvantage of civilians but think of northern Ireland no suffering or violence was reported until the Irish Republican Army (IRA) started fighting back. No one remembers Catholics being like black Americans not allowed to vote or educate because they were the minority. Only people remember the IRA killing innocent people but the difference between the IRA and England is that the IRA never killed anyone for their religion and they did their best to not to target women and children although some times this could not be avoided it was still considered as something they wanted to avoid, but the English did, and they didn't do it just in northern Ireland they did it all over the world. Think of the villages and countries England attacked for money, no matter how weak those places where or if the population of those places where mostly women and children they still did it. I know many a women, man and child were shot by English soldiers when there was no fighting occurring, for example my friends sister was shot on her way home from the shop at daylight while she carried a carton of milk, this girl was 8 years old and alone, how could she of been a threat to the English soldiers, so why shoot and kill an innocent girl? These incidents happened on a regular basis and the rest of the world only started finding out about the true suffering in the 1990's, even though the fighting had occurred from 1969. If you ask me the ruthless ones here are the western worlds not the eastern ones, and we all know that the full story has not been broadcast yet but you wait and see the truth will come out. Lets face it alqaeda must be fighting for a very big cause if they are taking on some of the worlds most powerful countries its time people opened their eyes to the corruption and violence that happens in front of them and stops judging terrorist organisations so quickly, lets remember they are terrorists for a reason!!

They will start with the 200-word statement posted on the Islamist website named al-Qal'ah or fortress.

The statement said:

"In the name of God, the merciful, the compassionate, may peace be upon the cheerful one and undaunted fighter, Prophet Muhammad, God's peace be upon him.

Nation of Islam and Arab nation: rejoice for it is time to take revenge against the British Zionist Crusader government in retaliation for the massacres Britain is committing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"The heroic mujahideen have carried out a blessed raid in London.

"Britain is now burning with fear, terror and panic in its northern, southern, eastern, and western quarters.

"We have repeatedly warned the British Government and people. We have fulfilled our promise and carried out our blessed military raid in Britain after our mujahideen exerted strenuous efforts over a long period of time to ensure the success of the raid.

"We continue to warn the governments of Denmark and Italy and all the Crusader governments that they will be punished in the same way if they do not withdraw their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

"He who warns is excused. God says: "You who believe: If ye will aid (the cause of) Allah, He will aid you, and plant your feet firmly.''

[ted]

None of you seems to notice the most obvious - the symbolism of numbers. Seven bombs detonated on the seventh of july. But why 7-7-7? And to what extent the numerical symbolism overrides other considerations in the timing?

[jf]

first,
solidarity with all suffering beings everywhere.
second...
are these jihadi web-sites credible?
third
is there a professional analysis of the strategic benfits from today's "theatre macabre" for ALL sides of the GWOT. i have yet to see one in my surfing.
Much has been said of al-Q's motives and history, but what of the White House's needs and objectives in continuing an unpopular war(s), and keeping the Brits in cahoots for a little longer? It seems, considering current WH agenda, rather too advantageous: Just as the lights go on for the G8 show, the topic suddenly changes to GW's favorite song. How odd. really.

[daCascadian]

Try this

"...You could say that London has become, for the exponents of radical Islam, the most important city in the Middle East. A framework of lenient asylum laws has allowed the development of the largest and most overt concentration of Islamist political activists since Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Just ask the French, whose exasperation with the indulgent toleration afforded to Algerian Islamic activists led them to dub the city dismissively as “l’antechambre de l’Afghanistan.”

They certainly have a point. Many of Bin Laden’s fatwas were actually first publicized in London. In fact, the United Kingdom in general seems to differ from other European states in the degree to which it became a spiritual and communications hub for the jihad movement. As such, it can furnish the indefatigable researcher a wealth of primary source material on Islamic terrorism.

The refuge the United Kingdom offers Islamist opposition is little short of bizarre. What appears to have happened is that the country’s asylum laws were designed to protect only dissidents and refugees from foreign governments. Victims of other persecutions, such as sectarian or ethnic struggles, fall through the net. The result of this is that, for the Middle Eastern refugee population, a proportion of them can claim asylum specifically on the basis of their Islamist political opinion and activity..."

http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?search=1&articleid=23565

"For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill" - Sun Tzu

[Stuart Berman]

The cameras design is not so much as a deterrent but as a forensics measure for prosecutions. Since London is the 'most watched' city in the world, we'll see if something eventually turns up.

As to strategic goal of the various terrorist strikes, it seems that they are designed to cause enough pain to want the West to withdraw from and firewall off the implicated sources. Given that we are not the barbarians that some claim us to be, this is the last thing we should be willing to consider. We offer freedom and liberty - the last thing these brutes want to allow the people they would control.

[Watching Them, Watching Us]

"The cameras design is not so much as a deterrent but as a forensics measure for prosecutions. Since London is the 'most watched' city in the world, we'll see if something eventually turns up."

Not quite. CCTV "evidence" is only rarely ever used in court, where it might be forenciscally challenged - you can forge the date time stamp on s digital still photo from a CCTV camera on almost any PC, and with video editing software, you can fake an lot more = "reasonable doubt" defence in cases where the suspects will be alleging that they have been framed by the security services.

No doubt there will be a trawl through available CCTV footage, but apart from the stuff already under the control of the investigators i.e. the London Undergound and BUs videos, other CCTV footage is likely to waste a lot of manhours in being tracked down and examined - there is no central registration or licensing of CCTV in London, even though you do need a licence to watch a normal televisoon set, something which is ruthlessly prosecuted.

The CCTV on Buses especially was installed as a deterrent against late night drunken or racist attacks on one man operated bus drivers, and crime deterrence is what people assume the cameras are installed for.

There is a notorious and creepy "Secure Beneath the Watchful Eyes" poster campaign from 2002 which illustrates this:

http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/002285.html#00228
5

http://www.samizdata.net/~pdeh/Big_Brother_is_watching_sml.jpg

We would have been far better off with fewer CCTV cameras, and better undergrouund train and platform customer real time information systems, which could perhaps have saved lives after the first bomb went off.

[enigma_foundry]

Two questions:

1. The London Police have not released the photographs they have of the wanted man. This struck me as just a little odd--if they want to catch him quickly, they should publicize the picture. Until I realized, of course the reason they don't want him caught quickly. So the Brits are rather on their game, aren't they?

2. Any notion of when the tests of the recovered heads will be back from the CDC?