JOURNAL: The Controlled Chaos Exit Option

Reuters has published details of a leaked memo from the British Ministry of Defense. The memo indicates that both the US and the UK will draw down troop levels in Iraq over the next year (8,500 to 3,000 for the brits and 140,000 to 74,000 for the US). First, this may not occur. Plans are built all the time. Further, this leak may have been orchestrated as a way to defuse/confuse opposition to the war.

If it is real, it does indicate the US has chosen the controlled chaos option as its exit strategy. This option relies on loyalist paramilitaries for support (See my earlier brief on this for more). Integration of these militias into the defense of Iraq will extend the distribution of the long tail force posture already in place. NOTE: I have already graphed the force postures of both the US coalition (uniformed troops, militias, corporate mercenaries, etc.) and the guerrillas (al Qaeda, Baathists, nationalists, tribals, gangs, etc.) and the result is a long tail. However, in this long tail marketplace, participation is driven by revenge, greed, identity, desperation, and patriotism.

Comments

[D.]

There goes the political wackjobs espousing of the 'flypaper strategy'.

What happened to your other entry on the failure of imagination?

[PeeDee]

The current discussion among reality-based observers of the Iraq conundrum seems to of necessity revolve around the question of 'How can we (the US, the West) now lose least badly?" given that Iraq was always at best a distraction from the GWOT and at worst now a significant contributing factor.

Partition, a la Bosnia, Palestine et al., with coalition forces withdrawn to fortress bases seems to me the only realistic alternative. The very limited military role would then be to keep the oil flowing, make sure internal borders are under the control of the respective states and avert genocide.

I have the suspicion that the Kurds, Sunnis and Shias would all accept autonomy provided they receive a pro-rata share of oil revenue (negative income tax?), administered by someone less corrupt than the US Administration if that is possible. (Perhaps this eventuality was why the US Administration was so concerned with undermining the credibility of the UN oil-for-food program.)

Perhaps in time, once the rule of law is re-established internally, the ethno-states would see the attractions of a federal structure like the EU.

Pipe dream?