JOURNAL: The Objective of the London Bombing

The speculation over the intended goals of the London suicide attackers continues to rage. Unfortunately, the bulk of this speculation inserts a larger context into the debate that is irrelevant to the analysis of this specific attack. These contextual references include:

• Moral war. Destroy our way of life.
• Political war. Withdraw troops from the Middle East and central Asia.
• Economic war. Disrupt the UK’s economy.

While the above may have been considerations for the group doing the attacks, they are well beyond the scope of this individual engagement. The real value of the attack is that it:

Reinforces the plausible premise of al Qaeda’s open source war through a demonstration that a successful attack can be made on the US and its key allies.

Remember, the plausible premise of al Qaeda's open source war (a model of warfare were participation is ad hoc, the network is loose/flat, and the innovation is accomplished at the edges) on the West is:

• The US and its allies can be attacked successfully.
• The US and its allies are at war with Islam.
• New groups can gain favor with al Qaeda through successful operations.

The attack was successful in that it demonstrated that despite expensive and extensive counter-terrorism efforts, the US and its allies are still as vulnerable to an attack as they were on 9/11. All that was needed to prove this was a single attack. That was accomplished on July 7th.

Further, the attack will likely cause the UK’s government to crack down on domestic Muslims. This, in combination with a smattering of hate crimes already in progress, will reinforce a second part of the plausible premise. All that is left is the final element: for al Qaeda’s leadership to embrace the attacks.

Al Qaeda's plausible premise provides the glue that holds this disparate community together. As long as the main tenets of the plausible premise remain intact, this open source war will continue.

Comments

[Dan]

John,

A slightly off-topic, if I can.

One reason al Qaeda is remaining in its present form is that it wants to. How can we encourage al Qaeda to change networks types, in order to destroy it more easily?

AQ will not endorse the London attacks...

[joe]

911 Flight impacts
8:45am WTC 1 London Bombs 08:50am

9:43am Pent 1 London Bomb 09:47am
Considering their need for publicity and strategy of econ impact, well executed. Not 'loosely' executed IMHO.

[david]

tenets
other than that i feel this is a pretty incisive analysis

[andrew]

John,

What effect do you think killing/capturing leadership targets will have on these so-called entrepreneurs? Will the sanctioning effect of AQ be reduced if the prominent leadership is no longer available to applaud attacks or will the leadership that replaces those who are killed/captured suffice for sanctioning purposes? Even if AQ leadership cannot grant their approval, will that matter?

[John Robb]

I think it would have a major impact. However, it appears that the number of "moral leaders" is growing rather than shrinking. Regardless, the loss of this leadership would slow the development rate we see. Unfortunately, new leadership may quickly emerge to replace the current leaders. Their place in the leadership hierarchy will be a function of the media and counter-terrorism attentiion they are given. A deescalation strategy would work well here. The less we demonize and elevate individuals, the less power they have.

[Hasan]

I'm more interested in what causes some lads to become suicide bombers and others not to. I'm a thinker whose best friend claims to have met one of the bombers growing up in Leeds. My friend is no suicide bomber. Indeed, he's largely secular and peace-loving, abhorring any sort of war. Much like myself, he came out of that environment to be an upstanding citizen. However, the other lad recently blew himself to bits taking around 100 people with him. I think it would be interesting to study the parallel lives of two youngsters, both alike in many ways. One of whom goes the way of gangs and crime, the other becoming an upstanding member of society.

[georgb]

hey! global guerrilas in kusadasi, turkey! a new kurdish terror group has announced they want to destroy the turkish tourist industry. so far two bomb attacks in tourist places. the whole area is now under police protection. the hotels are, as usual at this time, booked full owners fear for their income and the government for the taxes, etc.
these 'system disruption' attacks are really quite a hit these days.

[hhh]

I think one must be careful about statements that western governments are as vulnerable as 9/11.

First that attack did use a window of opportunity that closed, ease in commanding flying bombs. It is plausible that other targets, eg. chemical plants remain quite vulnerable, but the targets that have been proven are of a more moderate nature.

I would also like to believe that police and other measures are despite flaws better than before. The net will catch more people, increasing the difficulty.

In other words I do not think we are "just as vuulnerable," quite possibly very vulnerable and in certain specific areas maybe more vulnerable, but since in modern discussion arguments seem to rest on nitpicking I think the statement should be qualified.

The rightwing especially will use specific examples (eg. more airport guards) to try and portray your statement as absurdity and thus downplay other concerns because we know that (except for the evil legacy of Bill Clinton and democrat terror lovers) the "war" is a total success.

Haters of Bush will use your statement to claim the entire policy is useless. That both sides are pragmatic allies of terror with the right and it's deny all flaws probably the worse, is a fact that all attempts at serious discussion have to contend with.

[enigma_foundry]

"I think one must be careful about statements that western governments are as vulnerable as 9/11.

First that attack did use a window of opportunity that closed, ease in commanding flying bombs. It is plausible that other targets, eg. chemical plants remain quite vulnerable, but the targets that have been proven are of a more moderate nature."

Failure to learn! There is no credible reason to believe that the US is not much more vulnerable to terror attacks than they were on 9/11. First, although there are several avenues of attack that have been slightly hardened since 9/11, such as Nuclear Power Plants, but those targets are still vulnerable. There are many unclosed avenues, for eample: The possibility of biological attack is quite real, and the USA does not have they kind of system to respond to a carefully crafted biological attack. Attention has been focused on dramatic, rare diseases such as Small Pox. But that is exactly the opposite of the type of agent a terrorist organization would likely use. A disease with a very long incubation (greater than 1 year would be ideal) and a high lethality (>90%) and still being somewhat contagious would go far before it would be detected. The sentinel system presently in place only looks for known agents, and a very few. To detect the above described type of pathogen an extremely robust, distributed network of sentinels with detailed follow up and a syndromic (as opposed to diagnostic) survaillance would be required. Of course, this would also certainly entail (to get the kind of depth needed) universally accesible health care, so that when ever someone has symptoms they would seek attention, and suitable analysis of that symptom set could be performed. This doesn't fit with Bush's "private-sector" market fundamentalism, so it hasn't been initiated. Such a disease would cause wide-spread systemic and prolonged economic disruption. It would also raise many civil liberty issues of exactly the type terrorists would like to raise.

Why hasn't anything substantial been done to combat this eventuality? I think it is equal measures of: lack of imagination; lack of communication between the relevant subject matter experts, and part head in the sandism. Hmm...those sound like three weaknesses that were exploited on 9/11, right.

Oh, and don't forget, any thought of M.A.D. will not work here--that can work with say the Soviets, but not terrorists.

Now, the avenues are there, and due to the conceptually flawed response to 9/11, there are many in the Arab/Muslim world who are angrier at the US (much angrier, actually)

Still feel safer?

[jen]

One motive is to create backlash against British Muslims. It is hoped that to the extent they are oppressed and alienated they will rebel.

A variant of this is occuring in Iraq. By killing Shiite the insurgents hope to create a backlash in which Sunnia are murdered, there are already indications that this is beginning. Sunni will then be forced to fight for survival and in an ideal Jihadists world they would wage a campaign to eliminate the heresy. Murder of Sunni would also attract support from the rest of the Arab world, and in an ideal Jihadist world would create crisisi in these socieities which would lead to the overthrow of their governments or increasing radicalization of them.

In a perfect Jihadist world Iran and the Arab states would be drawn in directly, leading to a war of final purification and even more beautifully setting off an oil crisis that would collapse the west.

[FULL TEXT OF LONDON TUBE BOMBER]

FULL TEXT OF LONDON TUBE BOMBER

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The full text of the videotape of Mohammad Sidique Khan, one of the four 7 July bombers, which was aired on Arabic television channel al-Jazeera and in which he explains his motives.
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"I'm going to keep this short and to the point because it's all been said before by far more eloquent people than me.

And our words have no impact upon you, therefore I'm going to talk to you in a language that you understand.

Our words are dead until we give them life with our blood.

I'm sure by now the media's painted a suitable picture of me, this predictable propaganda machine will naturally try to put a spin on things to suit the government and to scare the masses into conforming to their power and wealth-obsessed agendas.

I and thousands like me are forsaking everything for what we believe.

Our driving motivation doesn't come from tangible commodities that this world has to offer.

Our religion is Islam - obedience to the one true God, Allah, and following the footsteps of the final prophet and messenger Muhammad... This is how our ethical stances are dictated.

Your democratically elected governments continuously perpetuate atrocities against my people all over the world.

And your support of them makes you directly responsible, just as I am directly responsible for protecting and avenging my Muslim brothers and sisters.

Until we feel security, you will be our targets. And until you stop the bombing, gassing, imprisonment and torture of my people we will not stop this fight.

We are at war and I am a soldier. Now you too will taste the reality of this situation."

A second part of the tape was less clear, but he could be heard saying:

"I myself, I myself, I make dua (pray) to Allah... to raise me amongst those whom I love like the prophets, the messengers, the martyrs and today's heroes like our beloved Sheikh Osama Bin Laden, Dr Ayman al-Zawahri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and all the other brothers and sisters that are fighting in the... of this cause.

With this I leave you to make up your own minds and I ask you to make dua to Allah almighty to accept the work from me and my brothers and enter us into gardens of paradise."

### SOURCE:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4206800.stm