The speculation over the intended goals of the London suicide attackers continues to rage. Unfortunately, the bulk of this speculation inserts a larger context into the debate that is irrelevant to the analysis of this specific attack. These contextual references include:
- Moral war. Destroy our way of life.
- Political war. Withdraw troops from the Middle East and central Asia.
- Economic war. Disrupt the UK’s economy.
Reinforces the plausible premise of al Qaeda’s open source war through a demonstration that a successful attack can be made on the US and its key allies.
Remember, the plausible premise of al Qaeda's open source war (a model of warfare were participation is ad hoc, the network is loose/flat, and the innovation is accomplished at the edges) on the West is:- The US and its allies can be attacked successfully.
- The US and its allies are at war with Islam.
- New groups can gain favor with al Qaeda through successful operations.
The attack was successful in that it demonstrated that despite expensive and extensive counter-terrorism efforts, the US and its allies are still as vulnerable to an attack as they were on 9/11. All that was needed to prove this was a single attack. That was accomplished on July 7th.
Further, the attack will likely cause the UK’s government to crack down on domestic Muslims. This, in combination with a smattering of hate crimes already in progress, will reinforce a second part of the plausible premise. All that is left is the final element: for al Qaeda’s leadership to embrace the attacks.Al Qaeda's plausible premise provides the glue that holds this disparate community together. As long as the main tenets of the plausible premise remain intact, this open source war will continue.
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