JOURNAL: Rapid Innovation and Infrared IEDs

The rapid innovation of the Iraqi open source insurgency is yielding improvements in guerrilla technology. In the words of one British Army bomb disposal officer, "These guys have picked up in two years what it took the IRA a quarter-century to learn." The most recent innovation (after the arrival of shaped charges) gaining popularity are infrared triggers for IEDs (improvised explosive devices). These triggers are a conversion of the simple "light" beams used in burglar alarms (see image) and as safety mechanisms on garage doors. The beams are activated remotely by radio controls when a patrol approaches. When the light beam is crossed the bomb goes off. Unfortunately, unlike radio controls the beams are not easily jammed. These new triggers have been used in numerous deadly attacks on British forces over the last several months.

This innovation may be due to Iranian involvement, but a more probable explanation is that the insurgency itself is finding low-tech solutions to difficult problems through an open source development process. Regardless, this innovation will rapidly proliferate throughout Iraq. Our problem is that the cycles of innovation that yield deployable counter-measures for US and British forces are slow and non-responsive by comparison. This is another aspect of global guerrilla math: our deployed innovation is measured in years and theirs in months. -OR- that a $1.2 billion program for IED counter-measures could be trumped by a $10 burglar alarm sensor.

NOTE: One potential solution is to use private military forces (PMCs) to provide IED detection and clearing services to US military units on patrol. Small PMCs would be able to circumvent the military acquisitions system to source, test, and deploy the best equipment faster.

Comments

[Kevin]

Old news....

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2005/08/the_ied_marketp.html#comment-8476880

[John Robb]

Kevin, I understood that when I wrote it. I was waiting until the number of attacks using this technique had progressed to a general trend.

[Cardenio]

The system we use to find ambushes and boobytraps IS the patrol. Putting together Iraqies ( sp ? ) to " go find the ambush " hasn't worked out very well.

Our problem is to not go broke trying to control this. The cheapest thing to do in the long run, or medium run, might be to just sieze all the fresh water supplies and run the region for a while. ( and Maybe install Paul Atradies as God-Emperor ... hey it could happen ! )

[Paul Atradies]

Like Hell. Spice worms do not respond to infrared.

[名字]

If it was not spice or Atradies - "they" would find other means of profit...

[имя]

http://iedtaskforce.army.smil.mil

is the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Task Force (JIEDD-TF) website for tactics related to IEDs. The JIEDD-TF has an $1.2 billion dollar budget for this cycle, was started in 2003, has spent $378 million as of July'05...

http://www.edefenseonline.com/default.asp?func=article&aref=07_20_2005_WI_05

[naam]

By the way, it is strange that Google can ping a SIPR network that is "NOT" connected to the "INTERNET"...

http://www.google.com/search?q=site:smil.mil

[Ryan]

I think this comment is fallicious, although I don't deny IED deployment has gone up, the countermeasures employed means that 75% of them are neutralised.

Besides, the countermeasures being made by the US army are forcing the insurgents to become involved with an arms race with US forces and Command, which they can't hopelessly win.

[Marcello]

"I think this comment is fallicious, although I don't deny IED deployment has gone up, the countermeasures employed means that 75% of them are neutralised."

The majority of the bullets do not usually hit the target either but that does not mean you can stop worrying about them.That 75%
leaves a 25% which still causes non trivial losses.Strenght is in numbers here.

"Besides, the countermeasures being made by the US army are forcing the insurgents to become involved with an arms race with US forces and Command, which they can't hopelessly win."

Maybe they can't win but it does not look like they are going to lose anytime soon.And that is more than enough for their purposes.

[nom]

I agree Marcello... they are attacking limitless targets - what happens when IEDs migrate outside of war zones into areas where the concept of jamming ALL radio transmissions 24/7/365 is not an option.

Further, how do you combat one-shot sniper tactics like Malvo's(DC) or Juba's(Baghdad)?

According to the Washington Post - the Pentagon has devised scenarios for "temporary" country wide MARTIAL LAW in US.

I wonder where the US will get the manpower for that? Seems like a draft would be a good idea.

[Vince]

Correct sentence:
"Besides, the weapons made by the guerillas are forcing the US army to become involved with an arms race with flexible, decentralized cells, which it can't hopelessly win."

Guerillas:
Low tech, low cost, short cycle innovative weapons.
US Army :
High tech, high cost, long developpment cycle counter-measures.

[John Robb]

More GG math: a $1.2 billion program for IED counter-measures could be trumped by a $10 burglar alarm sensor.

[jeremiah]

Dual-use technology is a double-edged sword.

[TM Lutas]

So how do infrared IEDs pick out the US vehicles and not the Iraqi scrap metal dealer hauling a load? I sense that while cheap infrared triggers are a tactical winner, it's a horrible strategic loser of a concept. They will continue the trend of killing more Iraqi civilians than anybody else and generating more net support for the current government.

[John Robb]

I mention in the journal entry that the infrared triggers are activated by radio control as a patrol approaches.

I don't see any evidence of the last trend you cite. The government appears to be losing support daily.

[Ryan]

'The majority of the bullets do not usually hit the target either but that does not mean you can stop worrying about them.That 75%
leaves a 25% which still causes non trivial losses.Strenght is in numbers here.'

Irrelevant, 75% of the bombs being stopped is a huge moral defeat and waste of material and money on the bombs.

'Maybe they can't win but it does not look like they are going to lose anytime soon.And that is more than enough for their purposes.'

Oh I forgot, the insurgents have a limitless supply of money and arms right? Wrong, they have to be intuitive because they are being harassed to the point they have to use any means they can to strike at US forces.

[Marcello]

"Irrelevant, 75% of the bombs being stopped is a huge moral defeat and waste of material and money on the bombs."

Huge moral defeat? Any indication they perceive it as such?
Waste of material? Well I suppose that artillery shells are a waste then since most of them will not actually kill anyone.The majority of the weapons are hardly one shot one kill.Let's say you place eight IEDs,six are detected, one malfunction and one actually explodes against a convoy adding a few additional casualties to the fourteen thousands the US has suffered so far (the harrassment goes both ways).You call it a waste but in the meantime the casualties are piling up and the public is beginning to notice.And that is not the only effect. Patrols have to be dedicated to IED hunting instead of something else (like protecting the power grid for example), transportation is riskier etc.Sure, it would be better for them if all the IEDs caused losses, just like it would be better if every artillery shell landed on the head of an enemy soldier.However realistically it can't happen but both an artillery barrage and the IED campaign cause enough casualties and others effects to justify their cost.

"Oh I forgot, the insurgents have a limitless supply of money and arms right?"

It looks like they have all the money, ammunition and explosive they need to sustain the current campaign.And that is more than enough.

[naboo]

"These guys have picked up in two years what it took the IRA a quarter-century to learn."

http://www.ncr-iran.org/content/view/296/71/

"I mention in the journal entry that the infrared triggers are activated by radio control as a patrol approaches."

Why would someone use a switch for a switch? Not to mention that the concept is to over come RADIO jamming... and the article says nothing about use of this tactic.

How does a basic burglar alarm work?
http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/Article499.html

By the way, I would guess that this is not what they are using - as there are better ways to use IR switches. As TM Lutas points out that the target is US forces and passive IR switches just don't do the job. Also, the photo posted above is of a passive IR switch, the one illustrated in the National Council of Resistance of Iran is photo-sensor based.

Security through obscurity is not the answer.

[John Robb]

It does mention the use of radio activation (both of you need to read it again).

"A radio signal is used to arm the bomb as a target vehicle approaches. The next object to break the infra-red beam - the target vehicle - detonates the device."

Radio activation works because it is outside the cone of supression.

As you point out, Passive IR works but a beam based system is better (the picture has been updated). A beam based sensor is more precise since it can be set at a height that picks up military vehicles/trucks and lets cars pass.

If you have a link to the NCRI device please post it.

[dekknavn]

Thanks John, the article does mention the use of RADIO activation

- it also says that the devices are "passive infra-red" and then contradicts itself by illustrating a photo-sensor based IR switch...

Here is a HIGH-RES version of the orginal illustration:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2005/08/21/wiran21big.jpg

I don't have a source for a photo of a sample device. Anyone have one?

It interesting to note that the Telegraph has pulled this story:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/08/21/wiran21.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/08/21/ixnewstop.html

[TM Lutas]

I do admit that I passed over the radio activation clause. That would reduce the number of times that this indiscriminate system would cause actual war crimes. How much radio activation would reduce civilian carnage would depend on the radio suppression radius. I would maintain that the chances of blowing up civilians are still there and it would be inhuman for such casualties not to cause resentment towards the bombers.

I'd think that uncle Ahmed getting blown up by the insurgency would make me unhappy with the insurgency and I think that Iraqis, on average, are normal people. You seem to differ.

As to the popularity trend of the provisional government, I haven't seen direct polling data and unless you can provide some links to appropriate data, I would guess neither have you. I believe that Iraq's armed forces and police are not drafted, that they voluntarily join and serve. That the government does not need to engage in conscription in the middle of war and are constrained by training capacity in their effort to increase force strength seems a great and continuing vote of confidence in the system that the current government represents.

The current government will fall and be replaced. It is destined to do so. In other news, Bush won't be President in 2010 and Francisco Franco is still dead. As long as Iraqis buy into the idea of exercising the franchise and replacing the current crop with a new crop of politicians who will do better, eventually there will be a constitution and eventually there will be an end to the war with government forces triumphing.

My understanding is that most of the insurgency groups have abandoned the idea of boycotting elections and are urging Sunnis to vote. That's a highly encouraging development and a sign that the franchise is secure. The acceptance of Iraqi votes is the key strategic issue.

[Marcello]

"That the government does not need to engage in conscription in the middle of war and are constrained by training capacity in their effort to increase force strength seems a great and continuing vote of confidence in the system that the current government represents."

It is not a vote of confidence.It is the very simple fact that there are not many others paying jobs available apart from the security forces.Besides would you want to use conscript for counterinsurgency?

"I'd think that uncle Ahmed getting blown up by the insurgency would make me unhappy with the insurgency and I think that Iraqis, on average, are normal people. You seem to differ."

Normal people tend also to blame who holds the power when things go wrong, even if it is not his fault.And the people calling the shots in this case are those funny guys driving around Abrams tanks.

"As long as Iraqis buy into the idea of exercising the franchise and replacing the current crop with a new crop of politicians who will do better"

They do.Except that these sort of things are settled on a "one AK-47, one vote" basis in these countries.

"eventually there will be a constitution"

So far we have had
1)The capture of Saddam and the killing of his sons.
2)The power handover.
3)The elections
4)The battle of Fallujah

All presented as decisive turning points in the war.Except that they turned out to be irrilevant.Constitutional debates may be very popular in the USA but in the rest of the world less so, especially if there are more pressing matters like no electricity for your AC during summer heat or bombs going off near you.Ditto for elections.

"and eventually there will be an end to the war with government forces triumphing."

The same government forces which are being massacred on a daily basis?

[Adam]

TM Lutas: "I'd think that uncle Ahmed getting blown up by the insurgency would make me unhappy with the insurgency and I think that Iraqis, on average, are normal people. You seem to differ."

You might think that, but then you haven't been invaded. Looking at people in, say, France from 1940-1944 we see that people were reasonably understanding when bombers from the resistance blasted things, including people, to pieces.

"and eventually there will be an end to the war with government forces triumphing."

This is true. But the question is of course which government? And from which perspective. An Iranian backed theocracy isn't really a triumph for America.

[Jeremiah]

Adam: Why do you hate America?

[joe]

Ref passive vs active IR. Night vision gear would spot the beam.

[John Robb]

Point well taken. However, I think the evidence is that most attacks occur during the day when the patrol intensity is the highest. Also, if the city has lights or if there are cars on the road using headlights (a big IF in Iraq), a beam would be difficult to pick out on short notice with NVGs (one of the lessons I learned by spending hundreds of hours using NVGs).

[NVGs]

Infrared light has properties similar to those of visible LIGHT - meaning that you must have line-of-sight or airborne particles reflecting the light to see it...

[Greg Burton]

Folks, I think a lot of you missed the point on this post. It's not about politics, or about Iraq, or even about IEDs. It's about the accelerated rate of learning and deployment. It's about OODA loops, and how fast they operate.

The location and the particular tech may be troubling. What's more troubling is the speed at which the cycle is running. We're slowing down relative to the insurgency. And this implies that the same thing can and will happen in other theatres.

[joe]

Any intentional IR radiating source is a beacon. It's not just the ambient temp. its the freq. You all are smart and Thanks for your thought provoking dialogue. My enemy is sharp and combat savvy. He is also Tech. Quick. Fondest regards Joe

[Adam]

"Folks, I think a lot of you missed the point on this post. It's not about politics, or about Iraq, or even about IEDs. It's about the accelerated rate of learning and deployment. It's about OODA loops, and how fast they operate."

From my background (politics degree) I'd have to note that bombs are political tools, used for political purposes, whether they're dropped from planes or driven in suicide cars.

Otherwise I don't think its that major an issue. As the post notes the IRA a traditional political-terrorist group did things more or less the same way for a quarter century. What's not analysed is why. The IRA chose things that weren't defended, whilst the Iraqis are hitting moving targets that are defended. Its just the Iraqis have found something that works by trial and error and the lesson has been passed onto other groups. The IRA didn't have to do the experimental cycle as fast because they didn't need to.

[TM Lutas]

Marcello - People interview those guys waiting in line to join the police and the army. Their opinions have been asked. What comes back is not "there's no other work", but patriotism, a sense of duty, and a desire for revenge about Uncle Ahmed. Go widen your information intake. You're currently drinking some bad koolaid.

I would be very surprised if the next government of Iraq has all the same players as the current government. I think that parties ruling right now are likely to fall and other parties will make up the next government. So, in a sense, you're right that the people will blame those in power. But they aren't, to my observation, turning against the system of electing people periodically via elections held under the rule of law. It's the latter that interests the US. The former is, and should be, a matter of disinterest as long as whoever gets elected can be cycled out next term. The idea that Iraqis have no intention of going through elections and honoring the result has little basis in reality. Even a majority of Sunni groups are now saying go to the polls.

As for government forces being "massacred on a daily basis", I think that's simply not accurate (at best fake but accurate). Government forces are taking casualties. They're also giving them and the casualty ratios are improving over time in the government forces' favor.

The number of red on red incidents is going up. The number of Iraqi groups in favor of settling things politically is going up. While the US is standing up Iraqis to take over patrols and entire sectors, the insurgency is losing its Iraqi protective coloration and becoming more of a foreign run affair. These trends will take time to play out but they are there, they are real, and they are what is winning us this conflict.

Adam - you seem to overlook a basic difference between WW II France and Iraq. The US is permitting elections and shows every sign of allowing Iraqis a way to rule their own house peacefully. Hitler wasn't the same deal at all and everybody knew it. What makes you think that Iraqis are stupid?

The constitution that has come out is pretty good, far superior to our Articles of Confederation. Iraq is now a laboratory to see whether Islam and democracy can coexist in an arab nation. If Iraq turns into a theocracy, it will be a theocracy that is run out of Najaf, not Tehran. Sistani and the Hawza he represents are of the opinion that the Khomeinism is a Shiite heresy. I'm not too worried that Tehran is going to be in the drivers seat in Baghdad.

Greg - You're right that it's about the OODA loops but the article is off base. Coalition forces have dozens of formal, national OODA loops and just as many informal ones. The formal, US one is slower than the Iraqi insurgency one. Is it slower than the informal US one? How about the informal UK one? I think that a false impression has been left if you pit the other side's fastest efforts against one of the slower of the many OODA loops on our side. It's bias by omission but still bias that leaves a false impression.

[Adam]

"Adam - you seem to overlook a basic difference between WW II France and Iraq. The US is permitting elections and shows every sign of allowing Iraqis a way to rule their own house peacefully. Hitler wasn't the same deal at all and everybody knew it. What makes you think that Iraqis are stupid?"

First, apologies all round this is moving off topic. Rather than ignoring the subject I'll reply once. TM Lutas' comment goes all over the place and a half decent reply needs some length. I'm tempted to do this one reply, then shift it to email, if that's OK with him. Constitutions are in my specialist area so its a dear subject to me, along with Revolutions and Revolutionary warfare. I've only replied to my section as I am sure that Marcello can handle his point.

Second, and returning to TM Lutas' point, What matters is Iraqi patriotism and finacial astuteness (generally, in my experience of Middle Easteners, pretty high). Its the US that has been riding the tribalism horse for all its worth on the "divide and conquer" model. Not unrealistic as the British did the same, its just the US has done it so badly.

On the same basis I've no idea why the constitution makes a difference to a military occupation. Now lets look at this constitution. First, as it doesn't currently exist in a written form so quite how it can be compared to anything yet I've no idea. I've also no idea how it can be compared to the "Articles of Confederation" which were written by a group of like-minded closely connected allies from roughly the same educational and social background in a time of war against - rather than on behalf of - a foreign power. I'd also note that in the case of 1777 it wasn't an invading foreign power.

So far no tallied votes have occured on the Iraqi constitution. Nor has a process been agreed for making a constitution. Neither has a formal draft version for discussion been released. Currently as at 4am, 28th August there are at least four informal versions that I am aware of, some of which are only based on conversations between people.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2005/08/22/DI2005082200830.html

Largely the whole thing has fallen apart following a complete knifing of the best educated 20% of the countries population, on the not unreasonable reason that splitting all the oil revenues between everyone else, rather than them getting a cut might be bad for them.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1558062,00.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,167217,00.html

It looks like when Bush muttered about Sunnis living in a "free society or living in violence" he meant it. Problem is the "free society" in this case involves living without oil revenues in an impoverished rump state occupied by US troops and their sepoys. Perhaps Bush meant "free of dignity and money society". Either would probably have been fine, but both means tht the odds are that some will choose resistance as the preferred option - as Zapata noted better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.

So no matter what drivel is written on a piece of paper the Iraqis sign the document is:
a) still going to mean that foreign soldiers will be enforcing US policies and
b) that the governments remit will continue to run no further than rifle-range from a US soldier. As you may know US forces in armoured fighting vehicles had to enter Najaf (again) this week to stop street fighting. Najaf is part of the "secured" part of Iraq. Iraqi forces are, and remain, utterly ineffective against people armed with guns.

The constitution is just the latest talking point of a string of "decisive turning points" that Vietnam was an example of.

Also just to point out in passing that local government is very important to every occupying power. Soviet Afghanistan leaps to mind, along with Vichy France, Salo Italy, British India, or Allied occupied Germany. In fact is there do you have an example of any invading nation not needing the locals? Quite how they're chosen is besides the point because they're there to obey, or the occupier will get someone else that will.

[Marcello]

"Marcello - People interview those guys waiting in line to join the police and the army. Their opinions have been asked. What comes back is not "there's no other work", but patriotism, a sense of duty, and a desire for revenge about Uncle Ahmed.

Yep, I am sure that a 30% unemployment rate
(CIA estimate) has nothing to do with that and that recruits standing in line are going to admit in public and loudly these sort of things, which would be a rather dumb thing to do in case you can't guess it by yourself.

"The number of Iraqi groups in favor of settling things politically is going up."

Like Al Sadr and the SCIRI were settling things the other day? I was under the impression that what I saw were bullets, not ballots.Besides who says that an insurgency cannot play both games? It is a pretty typical combination actually.Derail the constitution by voting and keep the pressure up by bombing.Both strategies are complementary, not mutually exclusive.

"the insurgency is losing its Iraqi protective coloration and becoming more of a foreign run affair."

Any indication that the insurgency is being run by foreigners or just more wishful thinking?

"Go widen your information intake. You're currently drinking some bad koolaid."

I bet they have announced an increase in the chocolate ration as well...

[Kevin]

There is no need for the military to waiste time and money on a pricey gizmo finding tangent. There are better ways to elude the IED- superior training is the key.

You mention using PMCs to find IEDs. How about using PMCs to train military units?

http://www.steelefoundation.com/media/articles/template.php?id=26

[OneIraqi]

How about getting out of my country ?

[Soldier in Iraq]

How about I got sent here to help in this liberation and how about my butt wants to go home more than you want me to. So how about you stop with the sly remarks and stupid political burocracy bull crap and get with saving our lives and getting us home!

[heywoodjablome]

Oh my god, you guys can't figure anything out. You take an infra-red laser, high powered optical rifle scope and zero the two. All the "insurgents" (who are more than likely MI6 or Mossad operatives) have to do is wait and watch the IED. When the convoy passes near the device, the "insurgent" "shoots" the sensor with the infra-red laser (which is aimed through the rifle scope) and poof! GI Joe is now an MRE!

No wonder it's been so easy for the U.S. military to take over the U.S. via military coup aka 911. You guys are very "simple". Do yourself a favor and turn your tv back to Amerikan Idol.

Get your helmuts on! Martial law is on it's way!

[Chinatronic]

http://www.chinatronic.com/mobile-phones-cellphones-c-15.html

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