JOURNAL: Nigerian Disruption Grows

Dokubo-Asari: "Nigeria is an evil entity. . . . I will continue to fight and try to see that Nigeria dissolves and disintegrates."

With the government (a kleptocracy) arrest of Dokubo-Aasari (a top guerrilla entrepreneur), Nigerian oil fields are under immediate threat. The Niger delta produces a large percentage of the country's ~2.4 m barrels of oil a day (target: 3m bbl/d in 2006 and 4 m bbl/d by 2010). Year to date US oil imports from Nigeria: 1.04 million barrels a day. News continues to flow in on Nigerian disruption.

Company reports: In the delta, 120 guerrillas in boats took control of at least one oil flow station and an oil platform, both owned by the U.S. oil firm Chevron (platform Idama and stationRobertkiri). This halted 27,000 barrels a day of production in non-violent incidents (they disarmed six government soldiers and Chevron evacuated personnel). Shell is pulling out non-essential staff. Guerrillas: Alali Horsfall, Dokubo-Asari's second-in-command in the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, said by cell phone Thursday that he and a force of 6,000 men, armed with machetes and dynamite, had taken over 10 oil flow stations and would not abandon them until their leader was freed from custody. "We will kill every iota of oil operations in the Niger Delta. We will destroy anything and everything. We will challenge our enemies in our territory and feed them to the vultures," the NDPVF said in a statement.

Shell: 1,100,000 barrels a day. 100 oil fields, 6,000 km of pipeline, and two export terminals.
Exxon: 570,000 barrels a day. Offshore production.
Chevron: 420,000+ barrels a day. 25 fields and 2,590 km of pipelines.
Nigerian AGIP: 145,000+ barrels a day. 146 wells.
ELF: 125,000+ barrels a day. 12 onshore and offshore fields (even split).

Think local, act global: so far, the Nigerian guerrilla's connections only transcended borders through the export of bunkered oil, the importation of black market weapons/goods, and indirect pressure on the price of oil. As this evolves, we should expect campaigns focused on particular companies, transnational cooperation (global open source warfare), and better use of Internet media. The effort will be to shift the attention of the multinational companies (likely through the manipulation of stock prices due to pressure on global operations) operating in Nigeria from the government and to the local tribes (so they can be "taxed").

Comments

[Greg Burton]

Based on the data you've used, I'd expect to see pipeline sabotage as the backup to holding flow stations hostage. Shell and Chevron would appear to be the most vulnerable. Pipeline sabotage expertise could be readily transferred over the 'net, and a substantial body of experiential knowledge is waiting to be tapped.

[Cardenio]

Maybe Shell, Chevron, and them will hire US Marines or somebodys Marines for security, and the transition to ' corporate military ' will be completed.

[wtofd]

John, why would the guerrillas be more interested in lowering stock prices than raising oil prices? Why not both?

[John Robb]

I corrected the post. The quote at the start of the brief sums up the conflict.

[SRL]

Last year my lawyer went to Nepal. a Maoist guerrilla, at gunpoint, assessed him a small 'tourism tax' and gave him a receipt.

[The Dark Avenger]

Are you sure he just wasn't afraid of what your friend could do without a gun?

[419 Scam Letters]

Dont' trust those nigerians. They are constantly trying to scam people through overseas internet transactions and stuf, they're scammers.