JOURNAL: UAVs for Guerrillas

Here's yet another sign that unrestrained Chinese capitalism (the emergent rule-set for the new global economic system) is very compatible with open source warfare. A recent Pakistani military raid on a North Waziristan (a rugged autonomous zone near the Afghanistan border) Madrassa connected to al Qaeda found a sign of new innovation: a unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) -- as well as a arsenal of weapons and al Qaeda training material. This UAV was likely a man-launched Chinese military ASN-15 (or a low-tech knock-off).

UPDATE: a reader has confirmed (below) that this is a low-tech radio-controlled (RC) aircraft with an extremely short range (although larger and much more capable "toy" models from China that replicate the functionality of tactical UAVs are available).

These remote control vehicles can carry video and camera hacks that makes it possible to gather intelligence on ground forces in the area. For a guerrilla, this an effective and low cost (US UAVs are extremely expensive in comparison) method of gathering intelligence on weaknesses in static defenses attached to infrastructure. They can also include weapons hacks.

Comments

[Marketing_innovation]

Marketing innovation:

- "Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain, the top army commander responsible for anti-terrorism operations in northwestern Pakistan, shows a compact disc labeled as "war without end" confiscated from al-Qaida's hideout during a news conference in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Sept .13, 2005."

http://nandotimes.nandomedia.com/ips_rich_content/917-alqaida.jpg

[Musharraf]

"This week's operation coincided with a visit by Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to the United States, where he said Pakistan is winning the war on terror."

[RC_Air_Plane]

The card says on the table says "RC Air Plane" not drone, UAV, or RPV... Why is it YELLOW instead of grey?

[John Robb]

The line between commercial and military technology isn't visible anymore. Slight hacks on low cost commercial devices can turn them into next generation weapons for GGs.

Example: Dikon Predator (similar in specs to the aircraft seen above)
http://www.made-in-china.com/products/show/freemember/prod/TAwMDQxMzEyN/mic/Toys_Model_Predator_Electric_Rc_Airplane.html
Cost:? Likely under $1,000

[Ages_14+]

The US needs to stop selling RC planes, since they are made in "that unrestrained Chinese capitalism."

DMZ9403 Delta Dragon
http://www.imex-model.com/images/DMZ9403.jpg

[DMZ9403]

SPECS: DMZ9403 Delta Dragon

RANGE: 500ft

MANUFACTURER: Delta Modelz, the newest member of the IMEX Model Co. family group based in Brooksville, Florida, United States.

DESCRIPTION: This easy to fly - easy to learn R/C aircraft comes with everything you need except 8 AA bateries for the transmitter. Be up and flying in no time. Each charge gives you about 15 minutes of flying time. Buy extra battery packs so you can stay flying longer. Spare parts are available in case trees or the ground get in the way. Color YELLOW. Specs: L=33.8" wingspan=42" weight=22.2oz. Range about 500ft. Transmitter is a 3 ch digital proportional radio with independent mini servos and speed controller.

[WAR_WITHOUT_END]

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/09/14/time_to_talk_to_al_qaeda/

"How can the war be brought to an end? Neither side can defeat the other. The United States will not be able to overpower a diffuse, ever-mutating, organized international militancy movement, whose struggle enjoys the rear-guard sympathy of large numbers of Muslims. Likewise, Al Qaeda can score tactical victories on the United States and its allies, but it cannot rout the world’s sole superpower.

Though dismissed widely, the best strategy for the United States may well be to acknowledge and address the collective reasons in which Al Qaeda anchors its acts of force. Al Qaeda has been true to its word in announcing and implementing its strategy for over a decade. It is likely to be true to its word in the future and cease hostilities against the United States, and indeed bring an end to the war it declared in 1996 and in 1998, in return for some degree of satisfaction regarding its grievances. In 2002, bin Laden declared: 'Whether America escalates or deescalates this conflict, we will reply in kind.'"

[DMZ9403_Confirmed]

Just got confirmed that the RC was a "DMZ9403 Delta Dragon"

PHOTO-1
http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/ap/20050913/capt.pes10409131749.pakistan_militant_hunt_pes104.jpg

PHOTO-2
http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/rids/20050913/i/r3494964359.jpg

The way that I found the "DMZ9403 Delta Dragon" was by searching on google images for "RC plane yellow" - it's on the second page... took me about 2 minutes from start to finish. (e.g. thinking of the right keywords and clicking through the pages.)

Also, I don't see any sort of RECON hack mounted to it. I would bet that 98% of the people that saw the press thought that AQ had a REAL drone, not something that can only fly 500ft...

[John Robb]

Thanks. Great work. Is Delta Modelz a Chinese company? Imex does do a lot of import work. Simple hacks are easy, but the Dragon is little more than a perimeter security device. In comparison, the Dikon Predator (among many others) is a serious "toy" that would a serious tactical device (patricularly for evading pipeline and powerline patrols).

[IMEX_Model]

"Is Delta Modelz a Chinese company?"

Imex Model Co. has been in business for over 30 years. Starting off in a small warehouse in Deer Park NY, we were strictly a Hobby Distributor selling to the local area and surrounding states. Our 1st warehouse was only 2000 sq. ft.

Today, Imex Model Co. Inc. has grown into a major manufacturer of plastic figure kits, R/C tires and rims and many other varied hobby related items to add to our wholesale distribution business. Residing in Florida, we now have a newly expanded warehouse and manufacturing facility that is over 31,000 sq. ft.

Our business hours are 8:00am - 6:00pm M-F EST. We have experienced Sales Associates that can help you with any questions.

Phone - 352-754-8522
Fax - 352-754-1882
e-mail - sales@imex-model.com

[IMEX_Model_USA]

oops... Here is the source for the above:
http://www.imex-model.com/aboutus.htm

[John Robb]

IMEX is an importer. Their "family" of companies includes Chinese manufacturers.

[MADE_IN_CHINA]

I was thought so...

My guess is that the label in/on the RC/controller said, "MADE IN CHINA" not "在中国被制作"... but who knows?

[Michael]

Here is a 1.2 oz camara you can buy for your "poor man's" UAV.
http://www.rcuniverse.com/product_guide/newproduct.cfm?product_id=667

For less than $300 plus s/h you too can have a surveillance UAV.

[gmoke]

Can I get one equiped with Raman spectroscopy?

[jeremiah]

Would be pretty easy to put a powder agent dispenser on one of these. Just a plastic container filled with agent and a timerelease to open an aperture through which the bernoulli effect could suck out wisps of agent and disperse them in a line layout.

[DunxD]

Or perhaps it is just a toy...

Isn't there a tendancy to identify EVERYTHING as a tool of terror these days? Sure this thing could be used as a reconnaisance device. The question is WAS IT?

The way things get reported these days I wouldn't be surprised to be shown two tin cans linked together with string, and told it was a sophisticated eavesdropping device...

[DunxD]

Check out the picture of the box for this "UAV"?

http://www.imex-model.com/DMZ1.htm

Is that a model of bin Laden in the cockpit?

This is movie plot reportage - remember the bomb in the remote control car "Dead Pool"? Sure - it could happen. A dirty bomb! RC-WMD!

[John Robb]

Important note: this RC Aircraft was outfitted with a camera and found with entire arsenal of weapons and al Qaeda tapes, etc.

Most likely this was a innovation from a "outside" group or individual. So, this is merely a sign of the early stages of experimentation (influenced in large part by the heavy US use of UAVs). Our experience with open source warfare is that innovations like this can rapidly percolate throughout the entire guerrilla network.

[John Robb]

The gear necessary for long range wireless connections for high bandwidth video are already here. WiMAX can deliver high bandwidth over 4-5 mile ranges (as much as 30 miles for lower bandwidth connections). This would enable a RC aircraft or UAV "toys" like the Dikon Predator to exceed the currently limited functional range with much more flexibility. The controller and video can be folded into software and run on a laptop with a WiMax base station.

[RC's BELLY]

NEW photo of the RC's belly...

SEE A CAMERA?
http://www.paktribune.com/images/newsimages/2005/09/safdar-display-bullet-proofjacket.jpg

--------
Notice the "SUICIDE BOMB JACKET"...
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/050913/ids_photos_wl/r3494964359.jpg

Is now a "BULLET PROOF JACKET"...
http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=119249
--------

[John Robb]

A camera wouldn't be on an external mount, it would be inside with a relatively small hole cut in the bottom. That is way I have done it in the past.

[HUMINT_vs_UVAs]

John - Ok sure it is possible, but how much would a system like that cost in US dollars and how many OP hours would in give?

The US-Marines Dragon Eye cost around 30k-70k per unit with few million dollars in DEV cost; the US-Marines expect to produce around 300-500 units in total. And I would guess that they get less than 1000 field hours per unit; by the way, this does not include the cost of training soldiers...

Then ask how many local HUMINT hours you by with those funds in the region of deployment... My guess is that the HUMINT not UVAs would give a better ROI, but who knows. What do you think?

.

[John Robb]

Hmmm. I could do that kind of math for weapons systems and functions that have zero applicability to the current wars (at costs an order of magnitude higher than what we spend on UAVs).

[Student_PILOT]

Maybe the plan was basic training...

-----------------------
-----------------------
-----------------------

STUDENT Arrested After PILOT Uniform Found

The Associated Press
Friday, September 16, 2005; 11:39 PM

MEMPHIS, Tenn. -- A university student from Egypt was ordered held without bond after prosecutors said they found a pilot's uniform, chart of Memphis International Airport and a DVD titled "How an Airline Captain Should Look and Act" in his apartment.

The FBI is investigating whether Mahmoud Maawad, 29, had any connection to terrorists. He is awaiting trial on charges of wire fraud and fraudulent use of a Social Security number.

Maawad, who is in the United States illegally, told the judge during a hearing Thursday that he is studying science and economics at the University of Memphis.

"My school is everything. I stay in this country for seven years; I stay for the school," he said.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Steve Parker said Thursday that the airport-related items were found during a Sept. 9 search.

"The specific facts and circumstances are scary," Parker said.

U.S. Magistrate Judge S. Thomas Anderson ruled that Maawad be held without bond.

"It is hard for the court to understand why he has a large concentration of those (aviation) items, and nothing else to indicate Mr. Maawad plans to stay in the community," Anderson said.

Maawad had ordered $3,000 in aviation materials, including DVDs titled "Ups and Downs of Takeoffs and Landings," "Airplane Talk," "Mental Math for Pilots" and "Mastering GPS Flying," FBI agent Thad Gulczynski testified.

The company reported Maawad to authorities when he didn't pay for $2,500 of merchandise it had delivered, Gulczynski said.

SOURCE:
http://news.google.com/news?q=Maawad

[Geoff T]

John Robb: "The gear necessary for long range wireless connections for high bandwidth video are already here..."

Not to mention easy and very cheap long-range hacks for off-the-self gear. The RC-plane end has size and weight restrictions, but the base station is a lot more flexible. eg: parabolic dish on a camera tripod for the video receiver.

Reading this, I really want to go put one together...

[DunxD]

I think that it is far more interesting to know who is manufacturing the cameras that were mounted in the toy plane. The plane is designed, manufactured and sold as a toy. A camera a transmitter or recorder small and light enough to fit in the plane is a far more significant piece of technology designed for more sinister purposes than a toy plane.

If the details of this aren't available, then perhaps the existance of the camera is speculation? After all, it wouldn't be surprising to find a toy plane at a madrassa - kids have toys.

There is a lot of pressure on the Pakistani military to find evidence of terrorism. They have been known to exagerate in the past.

Sorry to be so sceptical, but sensationalist stories like this arouse suspicion.

[DunxD]

http://brd3.chosun.com/brd/view.html?tb=BEMIL107&pn=3&num=34

Another pic of the ASN-15. This clearly is manufactured and marketed as a UAV with military applications.

[John Robb]

DunxD, thanks for input. Please remain skeptical!

[stephen russell]

Oh great, Now Terrorists can use UAVs, real nice, Now were going to have dogfights among UAVs now IF True.
Im sure the Narcolords can fund these UAVs over Mexico & Colombia & Peru alone.
Imagine Al Qaeda having these with suitcase style nukes onboard.
Goodbye Sears Tower.
Wake up E Ring, we have a Real Threat now.
& imagine them being deployed from yachts or freighters offshore.
Or remote fields in No. Mexico, LA, Cuba.
Or 20 types airborne with BW Nuke stuff.
HELLO PENTAGON IS ANYONE AWAKE YET.

[stephen russell]

Oh great, Now Terrorists can use UAVs, real nice, Now were going to have dogfights among UAVs now IF True.
Im sure the Narcolords can fund these UAVs over Mexico & Colombia & Peru alone.
Imagine Al Qaeda having these with suitcase style nukes onboard.
Goodbye Sears Tower.
Wake up E Ring, we have a Real Threat now.
& imagine them being deployed from yachts or freighters offshore.
Or remote fields in No. Mexico, LA, Cuba.
Or 20 types airborne with BW Nuke stuff.
HELLO PENTAGON IS ANYONE AWAKE YET.

[g510]

The clue to the camera at one of those hobby links above, is that it is also equipped with a *microphone.* And runs on *batteries.*

Small cameras by themselves are normally used in residential and commercial security systems; for example Panasonic makes a high-end system that interfaces with a LAN and video recording. These systems and their applications are entirely legitimate.

Small cameras with microphones can be justified in certain types of security installations, for example at a retail counter where there is a risk of robbery.

Small *concealed* cameras with microphones start to move from legitimate security surveillance to the realm of covert surveillance, with its potential for abuses.

But now when you power the thing with a *battery,* what you have is what used to be quaintly called a bugging device. These could be sold as "security" devices, but that's really stretching the definition: no client of mine is going to want a system where they have to go around their office or plant changing the darn batteries regularly.

----

Back a ways to the comment about UAVs vs. HUMINT: I don't think the comparison is fully viable; the various forms of intel collection are not mutually interchangeable. Good planning uses each in its area of strength and doesn't attempt to use them in their areas of weakness. HUMINT at its best can maximise effectiveness along the time dimension: long-term collection on the target plus the context. UAVs and IMINT generally, operate along the spatial dimension: the broad view from a distance. MASINT can look back in time, i.e. through analysis of physical evidence in a manner similar to that used for criminal investigations. SIGINT is broad-spectrum, looking for patterns and zeroing in on specific targets. Each can get stuff the others can't.

People tend to have their preferences about how they collect & process intel, but the changing nature of warfare requires a more interdisciplinary approach.