SCENARIO: The Fate of the BTC Pipeline

Last week, an important milestone was reached in the BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline project -- a one million barrel a day pipeline that will finally allow oil from Azerbaijan and other Caspian sea locations to reach tankers on Turkey's Mediterranean coast (without Russian participation). The pipeline's valves were turned on in Georgia. At this rate of progress, it will be fully operational (all the way to Turkey) by the end of the year.

In the larger global context, this project is a major test of whether new oil needed for the growth of the global economy (increasingly in remote and unstable areas) can be delivered safely and in quantities that matter. However, global guerrillas have the final veto power over this project. The newly expanded Caucasian front and a resurgent PKK (Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey) are within easy striking distance of this pipeline (as well as smaller groups). Additionally, there are other sources of instability on the horizon. The Azerbaijani oil-democracy (a parallel to the narco-democracy in Afghanistan but with another source of income it can appropriate) crudely rigged the last round of elections in the country.

With upwards of 40% of Azerbaijan's population living in abject poverty (despite abundant oil wealth) and the rapid rise of fundamentalist Islam domestically, there is a good chance that open source war will arise there soon too. Given this landscape, it's likely that global guerrillas will be able to exercise a level of control over this pipeline similar to the northern pipeline system in Iraq. Due to constant disruption, that pipeline has pumped a mere 10-20% of its capacity over the last two years. Control over global supply chains like the BTC are an essential element of global guerrilla strategy. The ability to remove 1 million barrels a day of oil production from global markets, with a single small attack, gives these groups oil pricing power akin to Saudi Arabia.

Comments

[SteveL]

Estimated crude oil reserves around the Caspian sea area are greater than the North Sea: 17-33 billion barrels x $60 barrel = a geographic location of strategic importance to the country of your choice.

Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production currently exceeds OPEC production (31,075,000/day)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/mer/pdf/pages/sec11_4.pdf

Flash/choke points for crude oil production include Algeria, Caspian/Caucasus Region, Colombia/Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan, and Venezuela.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/hot.html

[Valdis]

I'm looking at the BTC pipeline map above, and thinking of Aretha Franklin... the last verse from her hit song...

"One of these mornings the chain is gonna break
But up until then, yeah, I'm gonna take all I can take
Chain, chain, chain, chain, chain, chain
Chain, chain, chain, chain of fools"