SCENARIO: A Quick Recap of France's Vulnerability

Open source warfare when it uses systems disruption, can quickly disrupt and delegitimize the state. We see both in use in France. While the level of systems disruption we have seen so far is crude (the worst example is the shutdown of Lyon's subway system), it is unlikely to remain that way. A more sophisticated approach to the disruption of France would require assaults on its electricity system. UPDATE (Nov 12): despite a curfew, 30 people swarmed an electricity substation in Amiens and plunged the north half of the city into darkness.

Electricity is central to every aspect of economic activity in the modern state -- particularly in our computerized age. Disruption of this system would quickly shut down the country's ability to participate in the global economy. Additionally, the global financial system would rapidly pronounce harsh judgement on the country for its lack of participation.

So, how vulnerable is France to this type of attack? Not surprisingly, very vulnerable. I've mapped the areas of where low intensity (westernized) open source conflict is in play throughout the French countryside against the country's high voltage electricity network. The result is map (inset) that details specific areas of vulnerability within easy travel distance of France's rioters. Attacks on this network (particularly on network hubs revealed by network analysis, which I have chosen not to reveal) would cause cascading power failures that would percolate throughout the entire country. The heterogeneous scale free design of electrical networks like France's make attacks against these links and associated hubs prime targets in a systems disruption campaign. Unfortunately, it would take relatively few successful attacks on well chosen locations within these areas of vulnerability to keep the entire network in a state of perpetual failure. All it requires is a little analysis and a wrench/Molotov cocktail.

As little as 20 years ago, this vulnerability was relatively low. In today's world, a group of the size we see in France today have an easy to assert veto power over the prosperity of the entire country.

Comments

[eeekkkkk]

"France's Global Geurillas"

How are they 'Global Geurillas' when they are in France, are 90%+ french citizens having a to-do with the french Government. Careless (and dangerous) language methinks.

[Adam]

I suspect that the title Global Guerillas allows us to cover all the guerillas on the globe with an idea of examining how they organise and operate today.

This week its the French, who are doubtless, a lot more chic than the dour bunch elsewhere (sorry, cheap joke, its been a long, long week and its only Wednesday).

This makes this site especially interesting particularly the map because my main area of interest is Post Revolutionary Iran, rather than France and its always nice to see somewhere new on fire.

That said I'm half wondering if we have any rioters here tonight. Anyone?

[Tom Lord]

Where do you draw the line between analysis and incitement? Are you predicting what folks will do or giving them ideas? It's pretty obvious to many of us that they can escalate the riots in hyper-smart ways -- we don't need you to tell us that.

Anyway: a two prong answer is the thing and France will probably do it. (1) law and order, by force (2) reform -- capitulation subject to (1) and with a strong hint that the next wave can skip (1) and, with diplomacy, skip right to (2).

-t

[John Robb]

There is a big difference between coming up with plots from thrillers (blue sky thinking by idle minds) and something that is an extension of theoretical development (which is both probable and possible). This is the latter.

[Alex]

I still say you're overwriting this. The model is May '68 or the LA riots.

[blowback]

Have you ever visited France? Have you ever seen the areas affected by the rioting? Do you read French newspapers? If not, then please stop being an 'armchair warrior' on this.
The young people who are rioting are not yet islamic fundamentalist but are driven by consumerism. They are disenfranchised and economically disadvantaged gang members who are pissed off at the shitty conditions they endure.
When that moron, Nicolas Sarkozy, describes you as scum and suggests using a 'Karcher' to clean up, they are going to become even more pissed off. Now that he is proposing to summarily expell all the foreigners among those arrested under the special powers, they are going to become even more pissed. Now islamic fundamentalist might find a willing audience.
Britain also had riots involving muslims in 2001 and I don't remember seeing anyone spouting off about what a threat this was to the existance of the British state. I suspect this has more to do with Republican hostility to France for Chirac standing up to Bush over Iraq than anything else.
BTW, the use of modern communications technology such as mobile phones and the internet is pretty well essential to the operation of most soccer hooligan gangs in Europe and the British gangs were among the earliest adopters of such technology. A few years ago their ad hoc C3I 'systems' were probably more advanced than those of the police.

[blowback]

According to a report on Reuters (click on blowback below), Chirac now seems to be adopting a conciliatory approach:

"The riots began two weeks ago after the accidental deaths of two youths apparently fleeing police, but grew into protests by poor white youths and youngsters of North African and African origin against police treatment, racism and poor job prospects.

Speaking after talks with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in Paris, Chirac said the government must do more to ensure all citizens received equal treatment.

'We will have to draw all the consequences of this crisis, once the time comes and order has been restored, and with a lot of courage and lucidity,' Chirac, who has said little about the crisis in public, told a joint news conference with Zapatero.

'We need to respond in a strong and quick way to the unquestionable problems that many inhabitants of the deprived neighbourhoods surrounding our cities are facing,' Chirac said."

As for those special measures:

"However, some critics say Villepin overreacted by reviving a measure dating from Algeria's war of independence against its colonial master France.

'Most elected officials on the ground appear to have been more embarrassed than relieved,' the left-leaning newspaper Liberation said in an editorial. 'They fear this measure will further stir things up, or believe it to be either an overreaction or totally useless.'

Seeking to end the unrest, Villepin pledged on Monday to restore some 100 million euros in funding for grass roots associations working in tough neighbourhoods, and improve prospects in education, the labour market and housing."

[JR]

Nice to see the frogs are still living in denial. Hey frogs, have you seen that the french government has called in islamic clerics to quell the riots? they are ceding control of the ghettos to these losers. the fragmentation of france has begun. this is the opening round of the european jihad. welcome to your nightmare.

[TM Lutas]

John Robb - You wrote "A more sophisticated approach to the disruption of France would require assaults on its electricity system." That's dead wrong.

A single sunk ship filled with iron for cargo paralyzed Danube traffic for months. Was it an accident or a sophisticated and ultimately officially undetected attempt to shift commerce patterns? I've never sorted it out but I've heard it argued both ways.

A sophisticated disruption campaign could target electricity, as you say, or it could do it via water, pipeline, transport choke point, telecom, or via electoral violence. If you think there's only one modality, you're not being imaginative enough. The problem of defense is much more complicated than just keeping the electrical grid up.

And no, I will not go into details.

The multiple avenues of attack make a "Maginot line" style defense impossible to execute successfully. Defense is not an option. Running an offense is the only way for the French government to succeed. I'm far more interested in what you think a successful French government offensive would look like. Any takers on that one?

[Ben Hyde]

Not one of your better postings.

[John Robb]

Thanks for the feedback.

There was improvement in systems disruption last night: A group in Lyon (perhaps the same group that took out the subway system) attacked several electricity substations on Wednesday night. These attacks sent much of Lyon into darkness.

[jon]

While there are many vulnerable points to attack services in France, the electrical system in any modern industrial/post-induustrial econimy is the most valuable target available. It is the one utility/public service that allows modern 21st century life to occur. Without clean drinking water or gas or some other modern amenities life will be tough if the disrtuption is not longer than a week or so especially if it isn't a system wide disruption. If Paris loses all electricity for 1 week France has serious trouble. Police, fire, and other emergency services will be seriously hampered, if not useless. Firemen won't be able to put out fires, there will be no water for people to even boil, hospitals will be forced into emergency operation, as well as the national govenment essentially shutting down.
While it is true that there are many vulnerable systems, the electrical grid is the most important for a modern state to protect and maintain.

[TM Lutas]

jon - I said that I won't go into detail, so I won't. I'd put electricity on my list too, possibly even at number one for the shear ease of causing destruction via that vector. What I was getting at was that it's too simplistic to put only one attack line on your list of things to defend against.

Even if you go along with the premise of the article, vetos are generally not absolute. So what's needed to override?

[b]

"I've mapped the areas of where open source warfare is in play throughout the French countryside against the country's high voltage electricity network."

John - sorry, you are getting silly here.

Population center
-> high electricity need, high grid concentration
Population center
-> more people, more riots

What are you trying to correlate here?

Why not correlate the gallons of milk sold in an area to the possibility of a mass diarrhea and overflow in the sewage system.

Even the economy numbers would stink after that.

[John Robb]

Hey b, you are exactly right. However, here's the reason. I chose these sections of the map because those line segments are within easy reach of the rioters. If you take these sections of the map and put them through network analysis, you can find those areas where an attack would cause a nation-wide cascading failure. I didn't post that analysis (for good reason). It doesn't follow that system wide vulnerability = population center.

[Roland]

You've put an update about Amiens. You can add that the rioters have already used that tactic, plunging neighborhoods in darkness in order to freely burn things down.

You can also add that yesterday a mosque has been attacked in Carpentras, and tonight a retirement house and a school (or 2, I don't know yet) have been attacked in retaliation. No sign of de-escalation in sight.

There were also skirmishes in central Lyon saturday night (first time in the centre of a big city).

Another thing I've not seen yet in the english speaking media : burning cars is nothing new. It has almost become a tradition those last few years, particularly on New Year's Eve, where hundreds of cars are burnt in the suburbs (that's also probably why nobody reacted at first).

I'm pretty sure that things will calm down in the next few weeks, but in the long term, troubles will be back (in a way, that reminds me of the "endless september" on Usenet, for those who know it).

[Jeremy]

I agree this is a tough type of rioting to provide a clear idea. One can still learn isolated lessons.