JOURNAL: System Disruption meets the Internet

An unfortunate consequence of the war in Iraq has been rapid improvements in the ability of guerrillas to disrupt modern infrastructure (oil, gas, water, telecom, etc.). The wide ranging success of these attacks has eliminated any potential economic gains from the tens of billions of dollars spent on the US reconstruction effort and seriously damaged the legitimacy of both the US occupation force and sequential Iraqi governments. The impact of this reverse "effects-based operation" has not gone unnoticed. Al Qaeda's leadership has made systems disruption a central aspect of its campaign against the West.

Recent information indicates that the concept has become the topic of widespread discussion among members of Jihadi forums. On these forums there is a growing realization that the only way to damage the West strategically (without a nuclear weapon) is through the destruction of critical global economic networks. Stephen Ulph of Jamestown summarizes recent activity on these forums. His group found detailed documents that provide explicit instructions on facilities and pipelines that are termed global "economic joints". For example, one set of instructions provided data on the Alaskan oil distribution infrastructure and recommendations for maximizing the value of the attack.

While this effort is still in its adolescence, Ulph has detected signs of the type of collaborative open source development we have seen among guerrilla groups in Iraq. If so, it will advance to maturity rapidly. As that happens, be prepared to see a growing emphasis on the selection of targets (or more accurately "systempunkts") that cause cascading system failures -- failures that maximize the scope of the damage to the scale free and tightly coupled networks we see in developed countries.

NOTE: It's important to remember that in this epochal war, the guerrillas don't need to achieve either an absolute moral or economic victory. All that is needed in this hyper-competitive globalized economic environment is an effort that damages the ability of the target state to compete -- Adam Smith's invisible hand will quickly take care of the rest.

Comments

[Duncan Kinder]

Another way of looking at this is that - between approximately 1980 and approximately 2000 - the success of the United States' economy resulted from its increasing ability to manage risk through derivatives, inventory control, and other high tech innovations.

As a result of this increasing high tech sophistication, the United States was able to attract increasing amounts of foreign capital, which could be serviced more effectively by the United States. The ability to perform this risk management service more than compensated for the loss of manufacturing jobs and the balance of payments deficits which also took place during that time.

The central vulnerability of the United States, therefore rests upon its ability to manage these risks. Theoretically, it could be vulnerable to any number of disruptive impacts - Katrina hurricanes, AIDS, Mt. St. Helens volcano eruptions, asteroids.

The global guerillas, from this perspective, are essentially a conscious effort to add disruption to this overall picture - thereby undermining the ability of the United States to manage risk and - in turn - undermining its ability to attract foreign capital inflows.

Already, they are experiencing some success, as China, within the past week or so, has decided to diversify its investment portfolio away from United States-based investments to a broader basket including European-based and other investments.

[Cardenio]

Going cashless would let Adam Smith's hand give the guerrillas the finger.

[Greg Decker]

I agree the widespread acknowledgement of systems-disruption is an interesting development. However, its important to recognize the long-term threat potential in the US (like elsewhere) is a function of the Guerilla’s ability to propagate their organization across the host countries existing social network. While the possibility of individual action always exist and can be quite damaging the real threat lies in the ability of an enemy to establish what Robb characterizes as “economies of violence”.

This raises the question of precisely what aspects of a host country either supports or denies existence to Guerilla organizations. As Robb has clearly stated a number of times, the Guerilla’s need three things to exist: First, they need (indeed, exist within) some form of communications infrastructure. Second, they need resources to feed the organization which could mean money, weapons, training, etc. Third, the Guerilla’s need a shared ideology (More precisely, they need to build an parasitic affinity network within the existing social network of the host country. An ideology being an effective means of doing this. However, there is some indication that greed could suffice).

In addition to these three things I argue that for a movement to emerge and evolve into an autopoietic organization the host country must also lack an adequate legal forum. Understanding that a Guerilla organizations is nothing more that a specific manifestation of a social norm it follows that they depend on the same mechanisms for creating and reinforcing them. Thus, like all social movements that challenge the existing order, an adequate legal forum would serve to dampen the propagation of the Guerilla ideology by diverting the energies of many of the adherents to activities that will not bring about retribution. Given a choice, few people will take the path sure to incur a risk of punishment choosing rather to work within the existing social order to effect change from within (so long as a realistic chance of change really exists). An adequate legal forum will not stop the extremist, but it will effect their ability to develop a large base of followers. Considering the open, unimpeded, access to a legal forum it would seem unlikely that a Guerilla organization could survive or evolve into a significant threat in the US.

[Duncan Kinder]

"This raises the question of precisely what aspects of a host country either supports or denies existence to Guerilla organizations"

I would submit that the current popularity of The Da Vinci Code reflects the struggle of contemporary society to deal with global guerillas and related phenomona.

We have an esoteric, hidden movement that - over time - is attempting to achieve mysterious objectives. This, essentially, is what the Da Vinci Code is about.

This contrasts with such Cold War fare as James Bond or John Le Carre, where sophisticate, state-driven secret agents dueled.

I would predict a growing interest in such pulp fiction - perhaps dealing with Freemasons, Jesuit plots, and the like. Holmes vs. Moriarity should enjoy a comeback. I am somewhat surprised that there has not been a revival of interest in the insidious Dr. Fu Manchu, who is sort of a Chinese bin Laden.

[Greg Decker]

“I would submit that the current popularity of The Da Vinci Code reflects the struggle of contemporary society to deal with global guerillas and related phenomena.”

This is a fascinating observation. Not only does it suggest that society is innately aware of the nature of the threat it also portends that people are searching for ways to defend from the threat. (albeit searching under rocks)

From a pragmatic perspective I’m interested in what you (everybody) thinks an effective response by contemporary society would look like? Is the apparent political shift to the right in the US, Canada, Germany, and France manifestations of an innate response? What effect, if any, will this have on Guerilla organizations ability to form? To propagate?

- Greg

[Duncan Kinder]

"This is a fascinating observation. Not only does it suggest that society is innately aware of the nature of the threat it also portends that people are searching for ways to defend from the threat. (albeit searching under rocks)"

I am suggesting that the collective subconscious is aware of such things, not that people are sitting around determing that they will read the Da Vinci Code rather than watch James Bond so they can get info on Global Guerillas.

[g decker]

Understood. The question to think about: If the collective subconscious' choice to read the Da Vinci Code is an innate response to the perceived threat is this innate response also going to lead to changes in collective behavior in ways that seeks to counter the threat? And if so, to what effect?

[Duncan Kinder]

I dont' know; but I envision plot lines with ordinary people discovering that things are not really as they seem followed by their urgent efforts to get unbelieving, inflexible, ineffective bureaucracies to respond.

[Cardenio]

The Harry Potter books are basically ' Fu Manchu '.

[Duncan Kinder]

"The Harry Potter books are basically ' Fu Manchu '"

Some time ago, I participated in a discussion of the relationship between Harry Potter and Milton on the Milton-L, a listserv about John Milton and, more generally, seventeenth century intellectual history and literature.

That was back in the days of the witch trials and before the scientific revolution had really established itself. The modern concept of "energy" did not then exist. Many therefore struggled to explain motion as resulting from spiritual influences. Milton's life straddled the Treaty of Westphalia and was before the Glorious Revolution firmly established England as essentially what it is today.

There was quite a lot of fear - and some paranoia - about Catholic subversion and of the Jesuits in particular. Some of this was hyped up, "The Popish Plot," while some smacked of actual terrorism, "The Gunpowder Plot." Sir Francis Walsingham had established the first secret service under Queen Elizabeth.

There was quite a lot of literary uncertainty. Was Shakespeare a closet Catholic? Was somebody else really "Shakespeare." Christopher Marlowe was actually a member of Walsingham's service. Was his murder actually a barroom brawl or was it really a hit?

In short, that was a time when the nation state was taking shape and the modern world view was being forged. We live in a time when the nationstate is falling apart and the modern world view is decaying.

Tales from that time should be relevant today.

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