NIGERIAN EVOLUTION

"Our aim is to totally destroy the capacity of the Nigerian government to export oil..." from an e-mail sent by the new Nigerian guerrilla group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Nigerian Delta (MEND), that claimed the recent attacks.

A series of high tempo attacks (four in the last five days) have deeply disrupted Nigeria's oil production -- attacks on oil platforms, a pumping station, and pipelines have already reduced the country's oil production by 10%. Shell has withdrawn 330 employees from the region, and shut down four pumping stations. Four Shell employees are currently being held hostage.

These attacks are substantially more sophisticated than previous efforts which were typically either riot/protests or bunkering gone awry. These new attacks include:

• Swarm-based maneuver. The guerrillas are using speed boats in the Niger Delta's swamps to quickly attack targets in succession. Multiple, highly maneuverable units have kept the government and Shell's defensive systems off-balance defending the sprawling network.
• Radically improved firepower and combat training. This new capability has allowed the guerrillas to overpower a combination of Shell's western-trained private military guards and elite Nigerian units in several engagements. Note: one of Shell's private military operators was captured as a hostage.
• Effective use of system disruption. Targets have been accurately selected to completely shut down production and delay/halt repairs. This is a systematic operation. Additionally, the guerrillas are making effective use of Shell's hostages to coerce both the government and the company (for more on the effective use of corporate hostage taking, see brief: Halliburton Strategy).

This new level of sophistication, and its explosive emergence in Nigeria, demonstrates that global guerrilla methods that we have seen demonstrated in Iraq have made the leap to Nigeria. The source of the new funding, training, leadership, and firepower is still unknown (corporate warfare or other GG groups melding with locals?). Regardless of its origins, if the pattern of development we have seen in the past is followed, other indigenous groups will quickly adopt the same approach. The result will be widespread open source warfare, specializing in system disruption. This will mean the following:

• Massive disruption. Given the capabilities demonstrated, estimates of potential disruption in Nigeria could reach one million barrels of oil a day on average. Also, this means a second leg of a global guerrilla shadow OPEC is now in place (in addition to Iraq). This will shift control over two million barrels a day of production into the hands of global guerrillas (more 'swing' capacity than Saudi Arabia). Think: a new trading range for oil in $70-$80 range.
• A cash crises in Nigeria. The country's loss of oil revenue may cause massive instability which will fuel further conflict. If this is combined with disruption of basic services the cities, all bets for the future of Nigeria as a cohesive "state" (even a non-functional kleptocracy) are off.
• An accelerated spread of global guerrillas. The successful coercion and (potential) collapse of the Nigerian/corporate status quo will be a strong incentive for other groups to replicate their methods. Look to Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan for more on this...

UPDATE: 20 Jan 2006: Reuters' Tom Ashby follows up this brief with an article called, "Nigerian delta militants evolve into greater threat." He adds the following on the goals of the guerrillas: "Unlike some previous movements which have fought for outright independence for the delta, which pumps almost all of Nigeria's 2.4 million barrels per day, these militants said they want to stay in Nigeria but with more regional autonomy." JR: Again, the essence of many global guerrilla wars won't be to replace or break away from the state, rather, it will be to hollow it out.

Comments

[wtofd]

Note that the ransom is to be paid to the state and not the federal government (of course.) John, are we seeing the same issues of federalism or regionalism that we find with the Kurds up north and the Shi'a down south?

[wtofd]

Sorry. Here is the link to the Reuters article:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=fundLaunches&storyID=uri:2006-01-17T022655Z_01_L16731320_RTRUKOC_0_US-NIGERIA-ATTACK.xml&pageNumber=0&summit=

[John Robb]

Yes, the current national market-dominant minority is being challenged by a new regional one that wants to replace it. The mechanism is global guerrilla disruption vs. a popular insurrection. Other groups (across the spectrum of potential actors) will join in as the state continues to decay.

[dan]

Cheer up, John. Iraqi exports through the pipeline to Ceyhan were reported to have resumed today!

[jon]

[I]The source of the new funding, training, leadership, and firepower is still unknown (corporate warfare or other GG groups melding with locals?).[/I]
John what exactly do you mean by "corporate warfare"? Do you mean to suggest that this could be other oil companies trying to force Shell out of a potentially lucrative market?

[John Robb]

LOL Dan. Jon: CNOOC.

[Duncan Kinder]

"Regarding my thread starter... do people think that raising the bar (excuse the pun) for lawyers will help the public or will it hurt the public? Would you all prefer to eliminate the bar exam?"

With the new Great Game going on between the United States and China for oil reserves, we should not be surprised to see rivals for oil claims not only trying to secure their own but also to disrupt their rivals. This may or may not be happening in this Nigerian context, but do not be surprised to see it elsewhere.

Also, with diplomatic pressure now mounting on Iran over its nuclear development, we should not be surprised to see Iranians doing this sort of thing.

[business babe]

Excuse my ignorance, as I have only recently begun to keep up with foreign affairs...but what are the guerrilla warfare leaders hoping to accomplish? Are they wanting to take over the government, or run Shell out, or....what?

[Geoff]

BB-

I'd say both. Also including a level of ‘fairness’ with the $. I mean using the money for Nigeria and its population, not for the Nigerian elite or western businesspeople.

I believe Nigeria is squandering its oil wealth much like Saudi Arabia did (and still does) with its oil wealth; cars, sex, trips to the West.... rather than using the money to improve the country as a whole, as it should be.

[wtofd]

John, how serious are you about the CNOOC claim?

[steve]

What does CNOOC stand for?

[John Robb]

Business babe: their motivations include state failure or coercion to gain a significant share of the oil income. This is a hostile business take-over.

Very, very early trend analysis on my part in regards to CNOOCs involvement and corporate warfare in general. That's why I didn't include it in the body of the brief. However, it is possible that this is an extension of the Sudan model of oil extraction.

FYI: CNOOC is the Chinese national petroleum company. It just made a major acquisition of Nigerian oil interests:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/09/AR2006010901524.html

[wtofd]

John, what is the Sudanese model of extraction?

[John Robb]

Fund chaos to drive competitors out (in Sudan's case, that was Chevron) and back the market dominant minority.

I've also updated the brief with a new Reuters article that yields some new data.

[Duncan Kinder]

For more information on the Nigerian situation, see:

"Nigeria is a Mess and Getting Worse"

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/2193/34505#more

[AbbaBabbi]

We have been very patient and quite diplomatic in our armed struggle and as you can see from the last April elections in Nigeria that the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the multinational oil companies are unrepentant and very inhuman.

Please, read the following news report:

Nigeria: Umaru Yar’Adua, When Unrepentant Criminals Win Elections

When reporters asked for the opinion of Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, the presidential candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the massively rigged presidential election of last Saturday April 21, 2007, he replied that the election was the best ever. Both the local and foreign observers were speechless.

But, the persecuted Christians who have been at the receiving end of the governor of Katsina were not surprised, because Umaru Yar’Adua has told many lies to them in order to dispossess the Christians of their lands. And after lying to the Christians that their churches would be safe in his administration, he later denied them the license to build churches and even instructed them to relocate their already built churches so that he could relocate the land to build more mosques.

The more uneducated the majority of the Northerners were, the more they would be fooled by such political rulers as Umaru Yar’Adua and his fellow unrepentant partners in crime in the PDP.

The President of Nigeria, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo who claims to be a “Christian” lied that the April elections were free and fair. He refused to accept the truth until the former United States Secretary of State; Lady Madeleine Albright had a breakfast meeting with him and drew his attention to the indisputable facts on the glaring mismanagement of the electoral process and disenfranchisement of millions of registered voters and political candidates.

That how could the elections be free and fair when millions of registered voters and even the Nigerian Senate president could not vote?
But under age voters were seen mass dumb-printing ballot papers for the PDP in many areas in Northern Nigeria?

How could the elections be free and fair when the National Democratic Institute (NDI), Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), Human Rights Watch (HRW), Transparency International (TI) and others monitoring groups caught the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conspiring with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to rig the elections?

Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua claims to be a pious Muslim and then engages in the celebration of gross electoral misconduct, irregularities and voter disenfranchisement perpetrated by his ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and caused the mayhem that left over 260 dead. And he is still so shameless and unrepentant in his denial of the crimes committed by the PDP during the April polls.

The Coalition of Opposition Political Parties (COPP) has already declared that the election of Alhaji Umar Yar'Adua as president-elect is illegal and unacceptable.
Reports from reliable sources confirm that the president-elect, Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, vice-president-elect, Jonathan Goodluck and leadership of the PDP have resorted to bribery and corruption, to pacify the dreaded Niger Delta militants, and other opposition parties to secure their support so that the mass protests planned by the Coalition of Opposition Political Parties (COPP), would be sabotaged.

Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua should go ask Alhaji Shehu Shagari what happened to him when his ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) brazenly rigged the presidential election in 1983.
He was toppled in a coup. And it can happen again.

Mr. Integrity Umaru Yar’Adua has lost the dignity and probity of true leadership in his greed for power. And his so-called integrity has no credibility.

......

We are going to stop kidnapping foreign oil workers and face our real enemies as identified above, the PDP and their mafia.

President Thambo Mbeki is congratulating the president-elect, because South Africa got the contract to print 65 million ballot papers for the Presidential and National Assembly elections and most of the ballot papers were badly printed without the logos of some opposition parites and the PDP had the ballot papers before the day of the polls.

President Thambo Mbeki also supports the old monster Pa Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe who is suffering from senile dementia and look at how the lunatic Mugabe has turned Zimmbabwe into hell on earth.

President Thmabo Mbeki is only the President of South Africa, because Steve Biko is not alive. The late Steve Biko would have made a better successor of Pa Nelson Mandela.

I was actively engaged in the military wing of the African National Congress (ANC) during the armed struggle against Apartheid and now I am giving my full support to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), because I cannot fold my arms while the majority of my people are suffering and dying under unjust and undemocratic rulers.

With only a match stick, we can set the whole Niger Delta on fire and the Nigerian economy will be blown up in one day!