JOURNAL: Iraq's IED micro-markets

Iraq's insurgency is a cooperative community arrangement between many diverse groups that operates much like open source development in the software industry. As an adjunct to this cooperative arrangement, micro-markets have formed around the arming and prosecution of specific forms of attack. These micro-markets enhance innovation, participation, and skill development.

The best example of this is in the building and emplacement of IEDs, where guerrilla entrepreneurs have form cells for hire that specialize in certain aspects of the IED operations chain (the IED, or homemade bomb, has become the weapon of choice for Iraqi guerrillas fighting US soldiers). Greg Grant, a reporter just back from Iraq, wrote extensively about this micro-market in an article for the Defense News back in August 2005. He continues with a follow-up piece for Defense Technology International on the same topic (many thanks to Noah at DefenseTech for the heads-up).

The arrival of adaptive micro-markets (just like traders using rules of thumb gleaned from experience to recognize changes in global financial markets) or bazaars for violence in Iraq has changed many of the ways US forces fight. Most interestingly, an increasingly valuable form of measurement for success or failure is the market price of IED materials:

The market in Iraq for.. IEDs, has come to resemble that of any other commodity: It is well-financed and effectively managed, with supply adjusting to meet demand. U.S. military officers use the street price of an IED in Baghdad as an important measure of success in the war...

A competitive marketplace:

According to U.S. military intelligence, more than 100 cells operate in Iraq. Most limit attacks to roadways and neighborhoods near where the cell members live (NOTE: local action, global impact). Cells advertise their technical skills on the Internet, posting streaming video of IED attacks to jihadist web sites.

A combination of cooperative sharing and micro-market competition has led to the rapid proliferation of new technology and innovation among insurgent cells:

The most deadly device, however, is the explosively formed projectile (EFP), often called the shaped charge. Designed to attack armored vehicles in an urban environment, EFP's impart tremendous lethality in a small, readily concealable device not much larger than a coffee can.... According to U.S. intelligence officials who asked not to be identified, EFP's were first supplied to Shiite insurgent groups in Iraq allied with Lebanese Hezbollah. (since early 2005) EFP use has since migrated to Sunni insurgents and the devices are now found throughout Baghdad... "The Internet has changed the nature of warfare," says (Lt. Col. Shawn) Weed (U.S military intelligence officer in Baghdad). "Someone can learn how to build a new bomb, plug the pans into the Internet and share the technology very quickly."

Comments

[Adam]

Fascinating! So...what does an IED cost? What's the price difference between a hacked up artillery shell and a coffee can shaped charge?

[Alex]

That price could be a very ambiguous signal. If it's falling, does that reflect falling demand or increased supply?

[Adam S]

Alex, I think you can examine other factors to see the answer to that.

[Jason Spalding]

Thank you for a nice website. I found your site while researching a story on the IED Russian Iran connection. I'd love your input.