JOURNAL: Nigeria's Guerrillas Leverage Decentralized Initiative

The open source MEND movement (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta), an amalgam of numerous guerrilla groups and bunkering gangs (bunkering is the theft of oil from pipelines for resale, it is big business), have begun a campaign against the country's oil industry. E-mails from people in the movement, to the press, say that they have launched "impromptu" strikes. The word "impromptu" -- prompted by the occasion rather than being planned in advance -- is exactly the word to describe the decentralized decision making used in open source systems disruption (I described this method in the previous post on the next attacks against America). Local decision makers -- in response to local conditions and the signaling of nearby actors -- decide how, when, and where to exploit the situation. Results so far: 9 foreign oil workers, working for Shell (specifically for the subcontractor Willbros), have been kidnapped (3 Americans) and numerous facilities have been destroyed.

Comments

[Daniel Morris]

It was very interesting to read the press release MEND emailed to the media -- it's a sophisticated and specific piece of propaganda that takes sharp aim at Shell. Saying that Shell employees will "pay a steep price" for the corporation's deeds, and promising a "grander scale" strike in the near future, MEND seems to be firing a shot directly at Shell's stock price.

[John Robb]

You are right. There is considerable sophistication here. Very much in line with corporate targeting we see elsewhere:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/12/target_corporat.html

[John Robb]

With the hit on the Forcados loading station (400 k bpd), they have already achieved the 30% reduction in exports by the end of February they advertised earlier in the month.

[Daniel Morris]

Is that a trend in global-guerrilla propaganda -- these folks tending to deliver what they promise? Bin Laden has used communiques to provide very accurate windows into his intentions and capabilities, and MEND definitely delivered on their "quota." I'm used to associating wartime propaganda with the unrealistic and unachievable, but system-perturbers must see much more value in "delivering their numbers" (in the corporate sense, almost.)

[fizure]

Looking forward to your take on the recent "Saudi attempt"--I'm guessing this is the first of a series of attempts at seriously wounding Western markets through critical energy-based attacks in Saudi Arabia.

I'm stunned that crude oil futures on NYMEX don't skyrocket when this occurs... What are traders thinking? Are they? I believe the maximum crude flutuation price in one day is $3.00. Futures only moved up 2 buck on Friday... Strange. Oil prices, ironically, need to be much much higher--not only in order to prepare for the inevitable, but also to spur on conservation (which is a double edged sword), efficency (an even *worse* double edged sword--see Jevon's paradox) and alternative sources of energy... Not that anything can truly replace crude.

Also, I'm curious have you heard any talk in your circles about what skyrocketing crude prices would do to our occupation in Iraq? I'm sure that we already have enough to deal with between the "insurgency" and then on top of that the financial woes which go along with this ridiculous war (*wink* insane federal budget deficits *wink* *wink*.) Awaiting excitedly for your updates! Keep up the good work--I really appreciate all the information refining you do on this blog.

[Fast Eddie]

I must agree that groups like the Martyr's Brigade and MEND are operating in a textbook example of an environment ready, williing and able to conduct unconventional warfare. I do, however, have to truly question the motives of these groups. Granted, these groups have the will to resist, some modicum of mentorship from a cadre of former (and it is believed in some circles, current) military officers, but I doubt that their level of sophistication goes beyond that of pure greed. Throughout Nigeria there are numerous examples of intelligent and enterprising "Have Nots" leveraging their talents to prey on "The Haves". Very few ever profess to seek the ideological goals of "Returning the Niger Delta to the Ijaw People". I think the drive of these groups, despite their positioning to actually make a difference and quite possibly stunt or stop the flow of oil, is money. When the original "Nigerian 4" were abducted, talk of their imminent death was all through the news. Dramatically, these groups experienced a humanitarian epiphany and decided to relase these hostages. The mention of a significant payment from Shell is muddled in the aftermath of the release. Reference your comments about these groups targeting Shell's stock price, I think that Shell was the first "Impromptu Corporate Target" merely due to geographic convenience. As these groups gain momentum, recruit and continue to be rewarded for their acts of violence, the other oil companies will fall prey to their tactics as well. The Theft of the Agip payroll and threats against the Chevron gas plant demonstrate that they are spreading their operational wings and expanding their territory. I believe that these groups are in bed with, or at least operating in some form of agreement with the Oil Bunkering Organized Crime in the area. No one really wants the flow of oil to stop because then the money will stop. Regardless of the manifestos published by groups like MEND, I don't think the Nigerian govt or the organized criminals will allow the flow to stop. The true challenge is how much farther must they go each time to continue to bleed the coffers of the oil companies and the Nigerian government. In February it was about 30%. How much productivity will have to be stopped in March, April or May? The answers lie ahead.