BURNING DOWN THE HOUSE IN NIGERIA

The problem with dynamically unstable systems, like our current global social and economic environment, is that once they lock into a feedback loop they are almost impossible to control. As quickly as you move to dampen one problem others emerge. Eventually, these problems multiply, overwhelming the controller's ability to mitigate their impact and the entire system fragments.

You can see this process in action right now. As we put all of our energies into dampening the potential of civil war in Iraq, additional threats emerged in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. While we got lucky in Abqaiq (the massive Saudi Arabian oil facility that was attacked unsuccessfully by al Qaeda) the situation in Nigeria is rapidly falling apart. In a sign of things to come, Nigeria's global guerrillas set a target of an additional one million barrels a day of disruption for March (from a MEND e-mail, notice the Islamic caveat):

"God willing, we hope to reduce Nigeria's export by a further one million barrels for the month of March"

February's 20% realized reduction in production (455,000 bpd) is pretty close to the 30% target they set. Standard global guerrilla technique made this possible -- a combination of selective sabotage, based on network analysis, and attacks on corporate psychology through hostage taking and threats.

To scale the disruption, the guerrillas will need to move to the eastern side of the Niger Delta. Most current guerrilla operations are in the western delta, including attacks on corporate facilities in Warri. This is reflected in an e-mail from one of the many spokesmen for MEND:

"There will be inland operations in March as well as standard creek attacks"

Ongoing attacks on the recently abandoned facilities in the western delta will ensure that most of the production already lost will not resume. Our new epochal war's feedback loop is just starting to settle in...

Comments

[Benjamin Kaplin]

Where can I get on the MEND announcement email list?

[Cardenio]

If you abandon and oil field won't they just move in and start ' bunkering ' the oil or whatever they do ?

[Happy Bunny]

I'm sorry, I'm just joining this conversation...what does MEND stand for?

[John Robb]

Here's an explanation of MEND:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/01/nigerian_evolut.html

Cardenio, that is correct. Also, it allows them to expand the damage to the export facilities.

[Bob Morris]

From looking at the map, there's two logical targets. Pipelines intersect east of Warri and north of Port Harcourt. Disrupt those and the terminals will go dry.

[Tom Lord]

The "Peak Oil" freaks are optimistic in terms of actual production, no?

-t

[John Robb]

Well, the terminals are the key. When they destroyed the loading dock at the Forcados terminal, all of the western production was shut down. The same is going to be true for the Bonny terminal.

Peak oil was optimistic. It's also a great indicator of how out of whack US national security thinking is (our risk here is huge yet there isn't even one peep from the apparatus).

[John Robb]

Also, Nigeria is the source of the light sweet crude we love to use in our cars since it causes much less pollution. The Chinese are burning sulfer rich fuels in theirs and the environmental consequences are huge.

[gmoke]

Well, Amory Lovins and James Woolsey have been talking about energy security together for the last couple of years. And Amory's early 1980s book, _Brittle Power_, is online at rmi.org and still very pertinent. So we do know there are some people who have done their homework on the US energy security issue.

Too bad none of them seem to be in positions of power in our present "government."

I'm happy I have my solar reading lights and solar/dynamo radio and battery charger.

Solar is civil defense.

[daCascadian]

Tom Lord >"The "Peak Oil" freaks are optimistic in terms of actual production, no?"

Some are and some are not (check out Matt Simmons)

You might want to track these folks to get some feel for the more rational thinking (numbers etc) :

http://www.theoildrum.com/

"We are accustomed to the new land yet attached to the old country" - anon

[Mark]

Looks like they are targeting the Western Region:
Niger Delta : Militants attack another oil facility
March 6, 2006,
By AND West Africa
The security situation in the Niger Delta worsened on Saturday night as the Ijaw militants blew up another oil facility in Agge, Ekeremor Local Government Area of Bayelsa State.
The facility known as the Agge Manifold serves as the converging point of crude oil from locations of the Shell Petroleum Development Company in Bayelsa State for conveyance to Forcados Loading Terminal in Delta State.
News on the incident came amid fears over the health of two of the three remaining hostages – Mr. Coydy Oswalt; Mr. Rospel Spell; and John Hudspith –being held by the militants in Delta State.

[Prof. Goose (TOD)]

Thanks for the link to The Oil Drum daCascadian...the best of our Nigeria coverage can be found here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/2193/34505

[TM Lutas]

There are certain strikes that can disrupt Islam quite effectively, especially the brittle, radical islam that animates the jihadists. Saying "the Koran has a history" and demonstrating it in even the most trivial ways, is an attack that is cheap, undefendable against, and very likely to produce casualties via apostasy (a casualty producing method I quite prefer to bullets).

The point of this paragraph is that it is not only our systems that have vulnerabilities, but their systems do too. It is not only they who adjust but we adjust too.

I would be much more impressed with this site if it were as devoted to GG style action on all sides of the present conflict and the difficulties of adjusting on all sides. The analysis is good, such as it is, but the flaws are often of "the dog that did not bark" variety.

Red on red violence is often the product of our initiatives to break up alliances inside the other side and cause them to turn 4GW tactics on each other. Is this possible/likely in Nigeria? I've no more idea now than I did before I read this article. I wish I did.

[Marcello]

"Saying "the Koran has a history" and demonstrating it in even the most trivial ways, is an attack that is cheap, undefendable against, and very likely to produce casualties via apostasy"

Man, I can't believe this stuff...
Do you actually believe that you can disrupt a religion like Islam and talk religious fanatics into their senses in significant numbers by outwitting them in a rational debate?
I will never work.Not a chance in a million of years.
If you do not want to take my word for it you can test it for yourself with some christian fundies in a debate about creationism.
No matter how much one whines and moans, the fact is that there are military problems which simply do not have a favorable solution no matter what one tries.Hitler could have smashed his fists on the table all the day but there was no way Germany could have won the war in 1945.Just like there was no practical way Italy could have stopped the Allies in 1943.
Does it mean that it is hopeless? Not necessarily.But if nobody, Robb incuded, has fast and easy answers to 4GW/systemic sabotage you should take in consideration the possibility that maybe, just maybe, simply there are not fast and easy answers to these particular problems.
And tell me how it went with the christian fundies.

[Marcello]

"we adjust too"

Sure we do.Unfortunately it seems to be too little and too late.

"Red on red violence is often the product of our initiatives to break up alliances inside the other side and cause them to turn 4GW tactics on each other."

That is one of the possible solutions.As usual much easier said than done.You need to identify the fault lines in the enemy camp and then act upon them smartly.
And "smart" would be the last term I would use to characterize the current american strategic direction.

[Kim McDodge]

Try this image that Hitchens displays:

http://www.slate.com/id/2137560/

Gawd, that we would have those kinda cajones.

Now, that's adjust. woof, wuz....sigh, wag, drool.....

[Fabius Maximus]

Wonderful article, on an important issue.

A few more articles about the Nigerian rebels. Not much coverge for such an important issue.

"New militia is potent force in Nigeria's oil-rich delta region"
Christian Science Monitor
March 7, 2006
http://search.csmonitor.com/search_content/0307/p04s01-woaf.html

Subscription only, in print and online.
"Worse Than Iraq?"
The Atlantic
April 2006
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200604/nigeria

Important: here is a copy (leak of an edited copy) of a report by WAC Global Services for Shell Oil. Excellent work; 93 pages. Predicts that Shell will be out of the Niger Delta by 2008.

http://www.npr.org/documents/2005/aug/shell_wac_report.pdf

For those of you who are too young to remember how they fight wars in Nigeria, here is a retrospective on the Biafran War.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/596712.stm

[Adam]

Whats doubly fascinating here is that there isn't much evidence of Islamic involvement. Yet. After quite a few hours of debating this at work its not possible at this time to see if the group is a terrorist organisation as such, or just a group of high risk, high reward criminals. To date we've been seeing kidnappings for money, rather than politics. None of the Western hostages have been put into orange jumpsuits and decapitated yet.

I personally want MEND to be criminals. If they aren't then it means that the traditional Sufi Islam in Nigeria is moving to a far more militant form. Which means that the message of a defensive Jihad against the West is taking hold in ever more awkward places. Bear in mind that the Muslim Brotherhood (Egyptian) came out of a Sufi group as an anti-British force (in 1928). We've certainly seen moves towards more Taliban-style Islamic court rulings in Nigeria than the traditional Nigerian Sufism would support for example stonings of rape victims. Partly this is because Saudi and Pakistani clerics have been preaching in Nigeria, but they are Sunnis rather than Sufis which weakens that argument. The good news is that Nigerian Islam is less organised than that of Iraq. The bad news is that doesn't give anyone like Sistani who can negotiate anything.

Either way this movement within Islam is significant, because one of the underlying assumptions of Western politicians is that the Islamic faith isn't changing to keep with "modern times". I increasingly contend that Islam, under pressure from the West, is seeing more people becoming conservative and reactionary which would follow the Iran 1975-8 example.

In Nigeria around 50% of the population are Muslim; the rest are either Christian or the local (shamanistic?) religions. According to the London Metropolitan Police human sacrifice is still quietly practiced in some sects, which - given the muscular Christianity that the US military practices - could make for interesting US relationships with their most comfortable allies. The US allying with the Nigerian military would be difficult - around 70% of the military and almost all of the senior officers and NCOs are from the Northern Muslim tribes, although beating them around the head with large sums of money would probably work. Basically the Muslims provide the professional military and the government and the Christians provide the 419 fraudsters and religious hucksters. Its a fair division of labour.

Invading Iraq was childs play compared to handling Nigeria (four times the population, physically twice the size of Iraq - including areas that have never been mapped). Throw in the risk of diseases including lead poisoning from locals with AK-47s, Lassa fever, and AIDS (only one of which Iraq has as a standard feature) and suddenly 2006 looks a little more exciting all round.

[wtofd]

Adam, after your 1st paragraph I wonder if you're placing too much emphasis on Islam. If Shell were to cut the locals in on more of the profits and reduce (dramatically) the environmental damage don't you think some of this friction would dissipate?

[Adam]

wtofd,

If they're criminals and the moneys targetted at them (perhaps in the form of a "local security grant" or some such) then Shell handing over money probably will work. It'd be simple protection money. Of course once you start paying protection money its hard to stop, and others come into the game too.

The bad news is that if MEND are terrorists then giving them cash would just be giving them access to better weapons. And if there is one thing that Africa is awash in its military grade weapons.

[Shloky]

Adam -

I'm curious as to why you're attempting to differentiate between Muslim terrorists and high risk high reward criminals when discussing this situation.

We've already got a label.

[daCascadian]

Adam >"...including areas that have never been mapped...

You are kidding, correct ?

Either that or you have no idea how things (in the late 20th/early 21st Century) work...

what a giggle !

"...We don't have news, we have stories inspired by current events..." - Stirling Newberry

[Adam]

I have a fair idea how technology works, I just don't believe in it. I also know a few things about maps. Jungle terrain, which Nigeria includes, always has surprises and these surprises are never of the "locating hidden land filled with thinly clothed young women variety".

I am aware that satellites are supposedly the all-singing all-dancing wonder tools but then again at 32 I'm old enough to remember quite a number of such things including air surveillance. A few years ago a British army training unit found a waterfall that the maps didn't show blocking their way. Well, OK its only a feature sufficient to stop regular professional jungle warfare trained soldiers moving around... no reason to put that on a map.

For more information on what makes a Jungle particularly exciting for using a map:

http://www.map-reading.com/ch13-3.php

Far more to the point there are areas in the jungle in Nigeria that neither the oil companies nor the loggers go. Those areas aren't mapped - why spend the money?

[Marcello]

"Either that or you have no idea how things (in the late 20th/early 21st Century) work..."

Quite simply maps and pictures taken from satellites/air recon are two different things.That is what I was taught and from my experience I can only agree with that.

[daCascadian]

You two can go on and on but I`ve been a surveyor & actually made maps

there are maps and then there are maps

Who said anything about air recon etc BTW ?

Have fun boys

"For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill" - Sun Tzu

[Obodo5000]

A lot of people are clueless about the problems in Nigeria.

The emergence of an insurgency in the Niger Delta is only the tip of the iceberg of what could emerge in the Bright of Biafra.

Western Oil companies that use divide and rule tatics as well as the endemic corruption in Nigeria as a acceptable operational atmosphere should wait and see what is to happen next.

looted monies from corrupt nigerian oil officials lies in western banks and economies and yet the people of the Niger delta find it hard to locate a source of un contaminated ground water.

The people from the Niger delta are willing to probably burn down every oil facility because they have gained almost nothing from them in the past 40 years.