You can see this process in action right now. As we put all of our energies into dampening the potential of civil war in Iraq, additional threats emerged in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. While we got lucky in Abqaiq (the massive Saudi Arabian oil facility that was attacked unsuccessfully by al Qaeda) the situation in Nigeria is rapidly falling apart. In a sign of things to come, Nigeria's global guerrillas set a target of an additional one million barrels a day of disruption for March (from a MEND e-mail, notice the Islamic caveat):
"God willing, we hope to reduce Nigeria's export by a further one million barrels for the month of March"
February's 20% realized reduction in production (455,000 bpd) is pretty close to the 30% target they set. Standard global guerrilla technique made this possible -- a combination of selective sabotage, based on network analysis, and attacks on corporate psychology through hostage taking and threats.To scale the disruption, the guerrillas will need to move to the eastern side of the Niger Delta. Most current guerrilla operations are in the western delta, including attacks on corporate facilities in Warri. This is reflected in an e-mail from one of the many spokesmen for MEND:
"There will be inland operations in March as well as standard creek attacks"Ongoing attacks on the recently abandoned facilities in the western delta will ensure that most of the production already lost will not resume. Our new epochal war's feedback loop is just starting to settle in...