JOURNAL: The Kurdish Opening Gambit against Iran

For the second time in less than two weeks, (BBC) Iranian troops bombed border areas near the town of Hajj Umran before crossing into Iraq, the defence ministry in Baghdad said on Sunday. It said the Iranians targeted the PKK... NOTE: This is a sign of the opening gambit for the Collapsing Iran scenario I wrote about last week. In essence, this US-driven scenario will use systems disruption through an air campaign (an effects-based operation -- EBO) to suppress the government in combination with open source warfare (multiple guerrilla groups representing tribal, ethnic, and religious primary loyalties) supported by US special forces to manufacture the collapse Iran as a sovereign state (and thereby eliminate as a nuclear threat and a regional power for decades).

Comments

[dan]

I think your inferences on this are incorrect - Turkey has done exactly the same thing this week ( hint: Iran and Turkey are coordinating their actions against the PKK ), with reports of Turkish forces surging to the border and hitting Dohuk and Zakho in their offensive.

Both Iran and Turkey are sending a message to the Iraqi Kurd leadership that if they don't crack down on the PKK, then they will have 2 very pissed off neighbours on their backs; the message is being reinforced by the introduction of the Sadrists militias into Kirkuk - which translates as, "we can fuck with you on 3 fronts".

If my analysis is correct, then we can draw the following conclusion: Turkey has now discounted US promises over the PKK that were made back in 2002 as worthless, and has entered into a formal tactical alliance with Iran to keep the PKK penned in Iraq.

[John Robb]

You are right that this is a coordinated offensive, but it is driven out of fear and not strength. But the reality is that as Iran's ambassador to Turkey, Firouz Dowlatabadi, warned "the U.S. will carve pieces from us for a Kurdish state." The Kurds were the tip of the US spear in Iraq and will be in Iran.

[steve laudig]

this isn't well developed but here's a stab. Effects Based Operations is the topic. In Operation Iraq what have been the, clearly forseeable, though unintended and most likely unforseen by their authors, effects on the American State which now seems to be losing coherence if one is to judge its performance as a state by Katrina, failed and failing schools, failing infrastructure, control over it's economy, petroleum supplies, even its borders if one is to believe the alarmists of the Buchananite right, seeming loss of effectivenes in its own neighborhood of South and Central America. The climb to empire seems to have meant importing third world quality of governance into the metropole. more on this later.

[gmoke]

The Bush EBO plan may be to use the Kurds and others to foment conflict in Iran but there's no guarantee that it is going to be successful either tactically or strategically. We play a dangerous game by boosting the Kurds in relation to Iran and Turkey (as well as Iraq) and the Israelis who have their own Kurdish allies and plans may not be working totally in concert with US interests either.

We are playing with fire on many different fronts at the same time. Good luck to us all.

[Veteran]

Bad idea. Iran's national planners will see the formenting as a threat to their national survival and will strike out at American interests all over the region.

All the Iranian-backed global guerrillas will have one task: counter America.

[P-]

That'll be interesting if the "Bush EBO" is true and is commencing. It flies against Rice's argument that Iran is seeking diplomatic means, which should be seen as something good for the Iran crisis and now this... all to collapse the country. If the Iranians find out through a bungle like it has not happen before, Tehran hostage crisis, Somalia, Iraq... diplomacy capital whatever we might have will be definitely out the door. But it's not like this administration says one thing and does another. I'll have to see another evidence tract before believing an EBO is in place.

[Z]

I have a feeling the biggest threat of this "collapsing Iran" plan isn't that it might fail...although it might..but that it might work. If Iran were to collapse into civil strife, and its oil exports plummet as in Iraq, oil would be so expensive it would cause considerable hardship in the U.S. and would likely cleave Europe further away from the U.S. and closer to Russia...not a happy turn of events from the U.S. POV.

And if it increases Sunnia-Shia' tensions on the Saudi oil patch, as is already happening, you're talking a world of hurt for the global economy.

[ali]

Interesting ideas on systems disruption and you are probably right about the likely shape of the coming attack but I doubt if the Marxist-Leninist PKK are the tip of any American spear. If they are its liable to lead to a very nasty self inflicted wound. Turkey is our only useful military ally in the region and the PKK are their mortal enemy, this could spark a regional war.

The PKK has been very active in southeast Turkey lately, there are 250,000 Turkish troops deployed down there many of then on the Iran and Iraq borders. Turkey's Foreign Abdullah Gul recently announced that Ankara, Tehran and Damascus were united in opposing the PKK this followed rumors that Porter Goss had offered to let the Turks strike PKK camps in Iran when DC bombs the nuke program. This constellation of circumstances may have caused the Iranians to crack down on the parties Iranian wing the PJAK. Turkey is existentially threatened by an independent Kurdistan and the Turks are eager to hammer the PKK in Northern Iraq. Tehran doing just that looks like a typical piece of Persian cunning.

http://www.thenewanatolian.com/opinion-5015.html has some background:
"Iran itself is a country that faces divisive and separatist Kurdish threats. However Iran has a three-prong Kurdish policy. Firstly Iran tries to keep the Kurds within its borders with maximum pressure and a military understanding that surrounds a separate ethnic element. Secondly Iran tries to use the numerous Kurdish groups, including the terrorist PKK, in order to benefit from the Kurds' positions in the Middle East even today. Thirdly it repeatedly plays the Kurdish card under cover in order to strengthen the Shiite alliance against Sunnis in Iraq. Thus when we talk about Iran's Kurdish policy, it is very important to emphasize which one we are specifying. So it is also hard to work out the reasons for Iran's sudden and impressive indications of support for Turkey on the PKK issue. However it may be more realistic to consider it a few small gestures in order to prevent Turkey from taking a role in any eventual military operation against Iran. While the PKK has more hideouts and infiltration routes in Iran than it has in Iraq, the best way to gauge how far Iran's cooperation goes is to see how it would react to proposals of military operations against the PKK within Iranian territories, conducted either jointly or by Turkey alone."

[Bourcet]

Mr John Robb wrote that America could use:

"(multiple guerrilla groups representing tribal, ethnic, and religious primary loyalties)"

But did not specify these groups.

An article in the UK Daily Telegraph written 16 April 2006 titled "America's allies?", lists 4 ethnic minority groups that America might use to, "stir up opposition to the regime and provide intelligence from inside the country".

The groups are as follows:

1.Ahwazi Arabs from the Khuzestan province
2.Iranian Baluchis
3.Iranian Kurds
4.Azeris

The article claims that the Azeris would not act against the government as they are too assimilated.

Meanwhile, Michael Rubin (resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and) editor of the Middle East Quarterly), writes on 13th November 2005 in "Domestic Threats to Iranian Stability: Khuzistan and Baluchistan", that "Iranian nationalism trumps ethnic separatism" and therefore to use these groups would backfire with a short term gain but long term harm.

See: http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief005-9.htm for Michael Rubin's piece.

[Duncan Kinder]

Meanwhile, back on the farm....

"Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, has struck a $2bn deal to buy about 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil from Russia until the end of the year.

"Venezuela has been forced to turn to an outside source to avoid defaulting on contracts with 'clients' and 'third parties' as it faces a shortfall in production, according to a person familiar with the deal. Venezuela could incur penalties if it fails to meet its supply contracts."

....

"When this is taken with the fact that the Bolivian government has just taken over the refineries and oilfields...it suggests that we are definitely entering one of those 'interesting times', if we weren't in it already."

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/5/1/224137/4672#more

Hopefully, under these circumstances, any collapse of the Iranian state will not result in any impairment of Iranian oil exports. Doubtlessly Halliburton has this all figured out.

[arash sotoodeh]

thanks Mr. Robb for these informations. I think the new leader of Iran is really a moron, a mad man in it´s real sense, I am my own from Iran, but live in Germany, I dislike the gov. there since I was a little child, there is no way of cooperation with them, it´s sad that they still have a lot of supporters among Iranians, but still also a lot of opponents, but they use to kill or suppress them, what is "normal" for such mad people, thanks for your interesting views, arash

[P-]

Bolivia is trying to upstage the Iraq or Iran crisis on the world stage.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/chronicle/3833479.html

The New Sandanistas!?

[Veteran]

Bolivia asked, "Who run Bartertown?"

When Washington said, "Evil Evo"

Bolivia then replies, "Say it louder!"

[Dimitar Vesselinov]

USS Enterprise en route to Middle East

"The aircraft carrier U-S-S Enterprise is on its way to the Middle East.

The six-ship Enterprise Strike Group left today from the Norfolk Naval Station. Its 75-hundred sailors prepared for a wide range of missions: providing security in the troubled waters and skies, fighting piracy off the Horn of Africa and supporting humanitarian efforts.

The carrier launched some of the first strikes against the Taliban in Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001.

Sailors have closely followed events in Iraq and Iran but it's unclear about the exact missions the carrier group will undertake during the six-month deployment."

http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=4848785&nav=23ii

[haydar]

"I have a feeling the biggest threat of this "collapsing Iran" plan isn't that it might fail...although it might..but that it might work."

I agree. And what else is scary is that this means that the same people planning to deconstruct Iran must think that the Iraq project is going very well.

If Iran is successfully imploded, the collateral damage will most certainly include Turkey, and probably Pakistan as well. And that's just the short list. The fire has already been started in Iraq, and with the U.S. helpfully fanning the flames, we can expect a major blaze that will be very difficult to contain.

[Marc]

I have to agree haydar, there is the very real possibility of wider regional problems coming on the tail of an attack on Iran. As was suggested in Mr Robb's previous piece about the EBO in Iran, there could be a first strike involving tactical/battlefield nuclear weapons. The political fallout (if you excuse the pun) would be immense. The Baloch tribesmen are already running an inusrgency against Pakistan and Turkey may feel (not without reason) that it has been stabbed in the back again if Kurdish fighters are used. Its one of those siutations where the margin for error is looking extremely slim right now.

[Doug N.]

RE: Black markets & Iraq

"The military source followed up with a confirmation, and noted "They are most definitely the same missile... It shows there is a weapons link [from] the Moldova black market [to Iraq]..."

http://tinyurl.com/kqgsg

[Cardenio]

If they think they're going down will they fire whatever they have ? Yeah probably. The effect on us is what ? All gas stations are closed. National Guard comes and siezes everything. Gas rationing. For a how long ?

[kevin]

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/White_House_denies_reports_that_U.S._0503.html

[subadei]

As US patience ebbs and military options grow imminant it will be interesting to see if Venezuela and Iran strike an oil based alliance. Given Irans oil supply and their tactical control of Hormuz they could, with Chavez comlicity, pound the living hell out of the global economy.

[kevin]

As of right now a US navy carrier fleet is playing around in the Carribean and within striking range for Venezuela ;)

[Cardenio]

We have to be ready for anything.

Did this ' oil bourse ' thing ever get going in Iran ?

The real main event on the fight card here is shaping up to be Dollars vs. Euros. So what's happening with the ' petroeruos ' and the eruo trading oil bourse ? This could end in negotiations still. They just sent us a letter didn't they. Letters are good right ?

[subadei]

lol

I'm more worried about Chinas 14% and their reaction to the apparently inevitable.

[kevin]

Oil bourse? I don't think so; this is about pipeline poker and countering Russian/Chinease/Iranian influence in Central Asia.