JOURNAL: Fragmentation in India?

Naxalites are "the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by our country." India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

India and China, are both more of a risk to us as sources of instability than they are as sources of competitive economic risk as cohesive states. These countries are in close proximity to the fragmentation of the state into zones controlled by primary loyalties (ethnic, religious, ideological, gang, family, etc.) throughout Asia and prime candidates for economic and social chaos due to the ongoing inability of the state to provide buffers against the pressures of globalization.

In India's case, in addition to ongoing and exceedingly diverse ethnic insurgencies in locations like the oil rich Assam, there is a budding Maoist insurgency (covered by John Lancaster of the Washington Post). This description of manufactured primary loyalty sounds familiar (which creates loyalty in opposition to the state):

Once dismissed as little more than an irritant, the Maoist movement is gaining ground in this country of more than 1 billion people, feeding off anti-government hostility in some rural areas and highlighting the uneven nature of India's unprecedented economic boom. Analysts say the movement consists of about 10,000 regular fighters, with several hundred thousand supporters. The rebels are known as Naxalites, after the eastern town of Naxalbari where the movement began in 1967.. the rebels draw strength from "deprived and alienated sections of the population" and "are trying to establish 'liberation zones' in core areas where they are dispensing, or claiming to be dispensing, basic state functions."

This conflict between paramilitary and guerrilla does too:

He's 30 years old, speaks English and is conversant in the language of e-mail and the Internet. Friendly and self-confident, he could be a manager in a call center, or perhaps a software engineer on one of India's gleaming high-tech campuses. But "Comrade M," as he asks to be called, prefers a different line of work: waging war on the Indian state... "They're absolutely ruthless killers," a senior Chhattisgarh security official, B.K.S. Roy, said by telephone from the state capital, Raipur. "I've never seen this kind of brutality in my life before, the way they strike and kill Salwa Judum members. They're hacked to death, heads severed from bodies...." "They come into villages, beat up men, rape women," she (a Naxalite) said of the paramilitaries. "I don't feel bad at all about killing them...." Comrade M, the university graduate and a squad leader, said the rebels typically laid ambushes for "our friends in khaki uniform" using mines triggered by camera-flash devices.

Of course, we will eventually see seemingly proto-state movements (which cannot in the current environment expand beyond very limited boundaries since the same forces that are dissipating the nation-state work against proto-states too) like these develop innovative off-shoots and and more importantly cooperative arrangements with fellow travelers (in that they share a desire to hollow out India) that fully embrace global guerrilla methods. These newer groups will increasingly incapacitate the state by undermining essential services supplied to functional cities. I suspect they will be successful.

Comments

[Andy]

India is ripe for 4GW and I'm actually surprised more hasn't happened there considering the ethnic/religious makeup and the sheer mass of people.

Plus there is plenty of infrastucture there to hit.

[Max]

Maybe we'll get Kerry to run again and watch the Maosts move.

[John Robb]

Andy it's coming. 4GW without connectivity is slow to evolve and very weak, but despite this it is corrosive. 4GW + connectivity = global guerrilla warfare. It is 4GW on steroids.

[Kaushal]

Have you ever been to India ? Experience it and you will never want to consider its fragmentation.
You read your news sources right - there's the maoist, there's the islamist, there's also the khalistanis in the northwest and the rebels in the north east. Atleast two out of these four groups are directly 'outsourced' from our longtime friend and the global 'alley' on terrorism, Pakistan. But Pakistan and these terrorist groups have been around for years. Terrorism against India has succeeded in some pockets, without having any chance of causing national economic instability.
The ground situation will give you a lot of positives if you want to look for them.

[Andy]

John

I think the infrastucture attacks accentuate and accelerate 4GW successes. The whole connectivity issue as you state.

When you have 125 million people without fuel or without electricity, look out.

India also has a massive potential issue with all the different religions there. Methinks its time to start reading some books about Sri Lanka to see if anything can be gleaned from it.

It would also be useful to see what the Chinese influence on the Indian Maoists is. The situation in Nepal smells like the Chinese are behind it (I have no proof of this, merely a subjective guess based on how the Chinese act...very slowly)

[Veteran]

Camera flash slave units were used as bomb triggers in Northern Ireland. If the maoists are using infra-opto units, they are going to become a bigger threat.

[AoT]

From my recent (heavy) reading on the Indian State, I'd say there is little to no chance that they would be at risk of fragmentation. The State has a long history of dealing with guerilla groups and 4GW, see:Kashmir, and is at little risk of any serious threat rising.

As for Sri Lanka, the majority sinhalese did everything wrong if they wanted to be inclusive to the Tamils. India has does everything right as far as inclusiveness is concerned.

[Devang]

Reading too much into 4GW and the likely guerilla groups to employ those tactics in India is to forget that this country has a Muslim President, a Sikh PM, an Italian (Christian) immigrant as the head of the majority party, and it's the land of Gandhi.

It's always been my view that societal bonds (religious or otherwise, and as backwards as they maybe) run much deeper than any other ideology the guerillas are likely to come up with. 4GW will first require another generation to grow up first.

The problem with India is the same as with any country and it's government. There are problems with accountability, and bureaucracy which need fixing, like in every democracy.

[John Robb]

Devang, it's precisely those societal bonds (I call them primary loyalties) that would serve as the basis for fragmentation. Ideologies are just another way to create those bonds, but in today's environment they are much less than compelling. The key here is not to look for replacements for the nation-state but rather the willingness of groups, driven by religion or ethnicity, to turn sections of the country into no-go zones for the government.

[anangbhai]

I'm not as knowledgeable on 4GW as many of your readers seem to be, but wouldn't the gradual breakdown of loyalties eventually lead to suicide as organizations keep liquidating members. I take the GIA in Algiers as an example. Is this breakdown of loyalties a natural progress or is it an unfortunate side effect?

[Dwang]

With the recent history of Anglo Saxon adventurism in South Aisa.....this ain't gonna happen.......Mr Robb.... the EU will have to go first before we South Asians open ourselves to the maurading menace of western aggression..we know our geo-politics mate...we're a darn sight more smarter than you realise!

[Dan]

I agree with Kaushal,the ground realities in India can be a bit different from what the news sources usually indicate.However,there has always been fragmentation in the Indian society but I dont think it has increased.There were a lot of seccessionist groups in India just after the independence in 1947, especially in the numerous 'princely states' who had been given the option of remaining independent by the British as they left.But none of these movements were successful except the one in Kashmir and everyone knows it wouldnt survive without Pakistani assistance.In the '60's there was the Dravida movement which again turned into a political party like any other.Even the Khalistani movement did not survive for long becuase it was not rooted in the people but foreign elements.Then again India doesnt follow Israeli policy of military offensive to deal with seccessionists, if these movements failed then it was because the people they were supposedly representing werent a part of the movement.
However, the naxalite movement is different because its 'primary loyalty' is not ethnicity,religion,language but political ideology and the successive Indian governments have neglected enough regions to help these guerrillas find breeding grounds.But as India develops it is expected win back the people and believe me it seems very much possible.

[Duncan Kinder]

According to the following Asia Times Online article, the Naxalite uprising is taking place in India's coal producing regions:

"The success or failure of [the Naxalites'] campaign against the government will have profound consequences for India's stability and, most particularly, its energy security. The Naxalite insurgency is strongest precisely in the areas with the richest natural resources, especially the coal that powers the Indian economy."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HH09Df01.html

This buttresses the thesis that global guerrilla activity is fueled by the energy crisis - more particularly, by the indignation of peoples in energy and commodity producing regions over their failure to enjoy the economic benefits of those resources.