GLOBAL GUERRILLAS IN TORONTO?

Toronto police arrested 17 potential terrorists in a sting operation tied to the sale of three tons of ammonium nitrate. The arrests demonstrated three things:

• Homegrown terrorism is more of a threat than imported terrorism. Our experience in London was not an outlier.
• The Internet was a critical part of the cell's formation.
• Local police forces can detect large, sloppy cells.

Patterns

Like London, the Toronto cell came together in a familiar pattern of community formation (for more see the brief on emergent communities dedicated to war). This community formation is a classic indicator of open source warfare, since the group didn't need to have any direct connection with al Qaeda in order to form. However, in one area it appears the group fell short. It appears that the group absorbed very little of the innovation developed in other theaters (fortunately):

• Symbolic terrorism. The attacks were planned against hard government targets.
• These targets required large quantities of explosives and a large team.
• The large team and extensive provisioning required for these attacks made it possible to catch them.

Here's what this means

In no particular order:

• The incident in Toronto is yet another demonstration that globalization has melted the map. The old boundaries that used to protect us are both ineffective and of little consequence in a world where ideas and people can flow without much restriction.
• It also demonstrates that the call of primary loyalties can emerge even within the relative prosperity of a western nation. We are fragmenting, and this is a demonstration of that. As things continue to heat up in the Middle East, particularly when Iran is attacked, we will see an acceleration of fragmentation.
• Finally, the errors and failures of this group will likely serve as further reinforcement among prospective actors towards the adoption of systems disruption (which we are seeing emerge globally). We won't be so lucky in the future. Those groups that have adopted this approach are demonstrating that it is possible to remain small and undetectable, reduce provisioning to household items and still achieve massive impact, and survive.

Comments

[salsabob]

You've just described the DC Snipers -

"Remain small and nearly undetectable."
-- Can't get much smaller than a 2-man sniper team

"Reduce provisioning to household items yet achieve massive impact. "
-- Living at the Y or in the car; one sniper rifle and flashlight; nearly brought to its knees the socioeconomic activity of the Nation's Capitol and a few million people.

"Survive."
-- Only caught as a result of amateur mistakes (or mental dysfunction) and profit motivation (won't happen with highly trained and religiously-motivated global guerrillas)

[Cavolonero]

Yeah " Beltway Snipers " is the total worst case senario. Remember the Mohammed guy was going to try and recruit other people to do the same routine too.

Go back and look at the " Zebra Murders " in San Francisco.

If any freaks like this DO get in touch with real al-Qaeda, and they supply them with cash, a supressed rifle, etc. We've really got a problem.

[pm2075]

Talk about remaing small and undetectable...

THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. The secret that the federal government is funding "secret" wars across the world may be gone the way of the dodo bird.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/general/527884/experts_say_us_funding_somali_warlords/index.html?source=r_general

[Westacular]

Suggesting "local police forces can detect large, sloppy cells" isn't entirely accurate in this instance: CSIS (Canada's main intelligence agency) had been monitoring the group's activities for two years prior to the arrests.

[John Robb]

Given the interpretation of what I meant in the last section, this could be called a sloppy brief. ;->

Westacular -- exactly the point.

[Hakim Hazim]

Hats off to Canadian law enforcement for preventing what would have been a very lethal attack, but there are bad omens ahead.

When I started a small consultant company by the name of Relevant Now in November 2001, I did so for the purpose of educating local law enforcement and militray intelligence officers on militant cults. (I resided in San Bernardino, CA at the time.) A great deal of attention has always been paid to Al Qaeda, then and now, rightfully so, but the idea that spawned Al Qaeda should not be underappreciated. It is an idea on the rise, and as I predicted before and after 9/11, it has grown.

In December of 2002, I was invited by Charles Moose to brief some of the law enforcement negotiators that took part in the DC sniper investigation. They could not figure out why these homeless radicals paralyzed the DC area with fear and why they were made to look so inept.

This type of terrorism is not over. The uncovering of this Canadian plot brings several things to mind, but the most salient is the reality that states have lost large sections of their populations to new ideas that are emerging from a plethora of sources.

John speaks eloquently about the use of technology and the underground flourishing economies that are drawing many of these people into the transnational networks of global guerrillas without religious motivation. Another reality is this, America and other nations face lethal minds: those who are homicidal, religious, zealots who have their reward in the afterlife. When this is coupled with secular folk who are firmly planted here in this life and are profiting through illicit transactions, they become a formidable fluid force. This combination is appropriately named Global Guerrillas; I endorse the theory. Lawlessness has a form of order now, always has, and these forces are simply beating the hell out of the state system.

[arash sotoodeh]

One question that does bother me is, when will the violence in iraq, find it´s way to other countries? for most people this is not very probable, but I cannot get rid of the feeling , that they are strong movements undergoing society. will iraqi insurgents be able to make the jump to US? for example when economy in Iraq is growing or so. f.e. in five years. sorry it´s just a feeling, I cannot explain further. very alarming news at all from Toronto. thanks sotoodeh

[Hakim Hazim]

Arash,

Like the Boston song "More than a feeling." It is not just a feeling you are having, but a conscious awareness of an idea moving from one place to another. Once the idea has glue or viscous, it has the ability to hold people's minds and turn them violent. It is not a question of if, but when. Violence is a universal language and the organized practitioners are not all state sponsored.

[arash sotoodeh]

Thanks Mr. Hazim, I think you get what I mean and put it in words. I am following this outstanding blog for weeks, and get the impression that the essence of Mr. Robbs ideas is that the west is loosing it´s wealth, it´s middle class and it´s security. Still these thoughts help me understand my daily problems and life better, thank you Mr. Robb and all posting here, ok enough talked :) your sincerely Arash