AL QAEDA'S ACHILLES HEEL: RESIDUAL HIERARCHY

Early analysis of a rapidly unfolding operation, like the arrest/unravelling of the UK airplane liquid bomb plot, can easily be distorted by hype and erroneous information. Despite this potential minefield, here's my initial take on the event.

Here's the bad news. From all indications, it appears that the operation showed significant signs of open source warfare in both substance and structure. For example, the operation was characterized by: a self-organizing UK cell energized by al Qaeda's plausible promise, gathering of expertise/funding from al Qaeda in Pakistan, and innovative applications of technique/technology. Also, it appears that the operation wasn't directed at purely symbolic targets (using planes as guided missiles) but against the transportation infrastructure itself (like the successful attack on Madrid and last years attack on London). This slow shift reflects a growing realization, echoed by an increasing number of sources, that system disruption is more valuable in this war than the destruction of symbols.

Here's the good news. Al Qaeda's leadership provided too much centralized command and control of this operation after it connected with the UK cell. A great example of this, in microcosm, is a report that the suspects received a coded message from Pakistan that said, "attack now" just before the arrests. Operational control at this level is likely the cause of the factors that led to its failure. Here's why:

• it increased the plans exposure due to extensive traffic/communication to/from/with cells in Pakistan (particularly coded traffic). This needlessly exposed the operation to state monitoring of cross border traffic and Pakistan's ISI (which has proven to be much better at counter-terrorism than western agencies).
• it increased the size of the operation to ensure that it approached the scale of 9/11 (to counter the diminishing returns of terrorism). The result is that the greater the scale of the plot and the longer the length of the time line necessary to plan it, the greater potential of the plot's exposure.
• it likely dictated the method and the target of the operation. The operation was focused on body counts, airplanes, and simultaneous detonation. It's very likely that a indigenous UK cell could have produced more innovation in method and target selection. In effect, any similarity to previous attacks increases the potential of detection.

Final thoughts. Al Qaeda's failures to decentralized command and control of this operation ultimately led to its failure. Despite this, the plot appears to have been close to fruition since there are signs that a significant amount of planning and intelligence gathering was accomplished before detection (which indicates that our ability to interdict these threats is still not much better than it was before 9/11, the only major difference between then and now is that we are aware that they can occur).

Unfortunately, given the strong trend lines towards further escalation of this epochal conflict, we can expect al Qaeda to recover from this failure quite quickly. The motivations necessary to activate groups are still running high and the tools/methods of this type of warfare are still readily available and applicable. However, as long as al Qaeda continues to exercise even a small modicum of centralized command and control: the spacing of attacks will be long, the targets will be within known groups, and the size of the plots will be large. The result is they will be relatively easier to detect than more sophisticated, innovative, and decentralized operations. Our problem really starts when they evolve to the next level and fully embrace open source warfare's decentralized approach (much as the problem we now face with Hezbollah, although their evolution reflects the different contextual requirements of their position on the spectrum of open source warfare).

Comments

[Valdis]

Network analysts see this as the constant struggle between power and innovation in networks -- each of which require a different topology.

Do you want "reasons" or do you want "results"?

Power and reasons are easier.

[Cavolonero]

" ... the suspects received a coded message from Pakistan that said, "attack now" just before the arrests. "

It was probably us that sent them that message.

[Phil]

Colby Cosh has an interesting take on the foiled plot: http://www.colbycosh.com/index.html (August 11 posts-- I'm unable to link directly to the relevant posts)

In summary, Cosh suggests this 'foiled' plot might well be a diversionary tactic.

AQ may be betting on airport security focusing on carry-on luggage at the expense of checked baggage (a more likely spot for large explosives necessary to take down an airplane to be hidden).

Of course, Cosh's hypothesis presumes AQ does operate as a top to bottom organisation.

[MDE]

We should be wary of projecting our own belief system or perception of reality onto someone else not from our culture.

The diversionary operation is a distinct possibility in my mind, but I'm pretty sure they (al Qaeda and associated networks as well as others) have multiple deals going on and this one matured first. Potentially, each one could serve, if compromised, as a distraction from the others. Bin Laden/Zawahiri wouldn't have to time it or coordinate it beyond ensuring intermediate leadership prevents network membership from bleeding over between branches and cells acting on separate operations. That way, compromise of one operation does not directly lead to compromise of others. I think that would be more or less naturally occuring anyway, as a result of using inspirational leadership and specifically not using direct [controlling] leadership. I wonder if UBL had any fears of losing his grip on the British cells. How cool would that be if a Zarqawi kind of figure stood up in defiance of/competition with AQ?

If he wants to direct specific details in an aspect of an operation, maybe UBL would be better off sending a dude with the plan rather than using technical communication which can be, as we well know, intercepted. That way, the plan dies with him when he hangs himself in the immigration holding cell. Sending a guy with strategic guidance and tactical details could play a dual role of operational command as well as provide feedback to UBL. I think this would still allow AQ to be a fairly flat organization to maximize the innovation and would also keep the fewest degrees of separation between ideological leader and agent for the sake of control.

Valdis, exactly right. Of course, al Qaeda's hierarchy problem only applies to the parts of the network that they know about. It could be argued that that portion of the network is getting smaller and less relevant over time due to an inability to embrace OSW and its decentralized model (of sharing expertise/funding with any group that wants it and pushing command and control to the periphery). In that model, control of strategy is only exercised through soft power.

[John Robb]

Here's a good example:

The full extent of the terror threat facing Britain became apparent last night as security sources revealed that 'up to two dozen' terror investigations were operating across the country...

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1843667,00.html

[Syn Diesel]

A peroxide was mentioned as a chemical planned to be used. Any info on how flaky or useful this would be? A teaspoon of sodium peroxide, a bit of calcium carbide with some organic source of dense hydrocarbon bonds might be nasty but how do they make it bring down a plane without access to critical systems? A depressurised cabin due to blown-out window? Dead passengers the moral goal?

Wouldn't injecting a few tons of cryo-liquid oxygen into the natural gas net do more harm?(in the middle of nowhere - I have pictures to prove it, a friend got his "Hummer" caught in the mud that collected around an exposed NG pipeline next to the electrical company ROW towers) And cheaper to boot?

[Chris]

Does al Qaeda now shift to smaller groups and more frequent attacks? With 20 - 50 members, this set up seems to be prohibitive.

[ptcruser]

I heard an extremely brief report yesterday that the reason the British moved against the alleged plotters at this time was because the British were being pressured by the U.S. Did anyone else here this same story and, if this story is true, does anyone have any insight into why the U.S. would have wanted the Brits to move now rather than later?

[daCascadian]

Way too much uninformed chest thumping here

ptcruser >"...does anyone have any insight into why the U.S. would have wanted the Brits to move now rather than later?"

Domestic political reasons which will, in the near future, end up biting them in the ass; another Bush Handlers, Inc. screw up

"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact....Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." - newshog@gmail.com

[ptcruiser]

"...Cosh suggests this 'foiled' plot might well be a diversionary tactic."

"...Cosh's hypothesis presumes AQ does operate as a top to bottom organisation."

What if AQ at this point in its development was operating more like guys playing pick up, ad hoc basketball games? If guys can play the game to some extent, they do not need a lot of practice time together to play as a team and knock-off their opponent no matter how many games that opponent has previously won. Even if they lose to the team they challenged they can still play again and even change some of the players on their team.

[ptcruiser]

Pick up, ad hoc soccer games might be a more appropriate sports metaphor to use than basketball. The object of either game is pretty simple: put the ball between the goalposts or in the basket. That's why so many kids all over the world can play unorganized, pick-up games in these two sports. They don't require a lot of organization, planning and training.

People who play racquet games, for example, never play pick-up games. You come to the court with a partner who is presumably at, near or slightly above your skill rating and you play.

What if AQ is slowly morphing into a pick up organization?

[enigma_foundry]

"The diversionary operation is a distinct possibility in my mind, but I'm pretty sure they (al Qaeda and associated networks as well as others) have multiple deals going on ..."

I thought the same thing, when I had seen the earlier story about A.Q. not wanting to attack New York with the chemicals in the subway.

Does anyone know just how long this was being monitored?

Did it just come up, or had it been monitored for more than a couple of months?

I still am rather concerned that the long term goal of AQ is to deploy biological weapons (if they haven't already done so) and am greatly concerned about the lack of preparations by the West, and particularly the USA, to create a credible bio-defense...

This article: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14320452/

Seems to suggest the possibilty - towards the latter half of the article - that they were exposed in part because of infighting in the ISI.

Sorry - the url I meant to link with was here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/terrorism/story/0,,1844053,00.html

See the quotes from the Pakistani analyst and the Afghan government.

[daCascadian]

enigma_foundry >"...I still am rather concerned that the long term goal of AQ is to deploy biological weapons..."

AQ/Usama`s STATED goals are to bring into being the "Perfect Caliphate" AND to bankrupt the "Western Capitalist" economic structure, neither of which REQUIRE the use of biological or nuclear weapons

I`m sure "they" would be happy to use such weapons should they become available but getting them is NOT very high on the list of GOALS & any other reading is just a delusional response to shadows in people`s minds (their own generated images of fear)

Think Psychological Warfare

''The war on terror is not a clash of civilizations. It is a clash of civilization against chaos, of the best hopes of humanity against dogmatic fears of progress and the future.'' - John F. Kerry

[jonrog1]

Now that there's been some info rollout, might be worth the time for a follow-up/edit about "Despite this, the plot appears to have been close to fruition since there are signs that a significant amount of planning and intelligence gathering was accomplished before detection", as it's now clear that this group was penetrated by British intelligence (thanks to some Muslim-community informants) for a full year.

[MDE]

Got this off Foxnews.com:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208244,00.html

It is about 3 arabs living in the USA buying over a thousand trac phones. They live in Texas, but they were busted in Michigan by local cops after a tip from suspicious Walmart employees. Grass roots force protection..yeah!

Beyond that the article is typical of modern half-ass journalism: no personal data about the men other than official legal residence. Nothing about their status, the flavor of Islam these guys cling to, etc.

But, to be fair, this is an initial report and initial reports are always a bit off. I am looking forward to seeing if this develops at all.

Now, about those guys and network development. Considering the Hezbollah and AQ infiltration routes into N America from Venzuela, Paraguay and other parts of Central and S America, my educted guess is that these guys were part of the Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and Integration system for new operators coming into the USA from across our unsecure border to the south. These guys were probably part of a logistical cell responsible for communications establishment and sustainment.

This should be a very loud reminder that that Muslim extremist networks are still alive and functioning in accordance with UBL's and others' intents. They continue to grow and morph and and extend their reach for sustainment as well as for operational and intelligence collection pusposes. This is the nature of the War on Terror; these kinds of arrests, though hopefully they will be better coordinated across the law enforcement boundaries, will be our successes and our victories. Knocking over terrorism-supporting states will be the exception, due to political and morale cowardess, and this kind of law enforcement stuff with get scrunitized ad nauseum in the media, courts and in the ignorant public eye. Thank God we have people of morale courage and education in the fight, trying to improve and maintain our own networks to blunt the reach of our enemies.

[MDE]

ptcruiser:

I think Islamic terrorism is already a pick-up sport. Initial recruitment picks and chooses from the pile of kids (tall kids, short kids, fat kids, ugly kids, crippled kids) who want to play so badly, they'll jump at any chance they get -- like those retarded kids in Miami who were duped by a deception agent (FBI undercover dude feigning AQ links). The organization will pull the useful/useable ones further into the network once they see who has skills, access to information of use and/or placement in a location or facility that assists in arrangement of chess pieces for intelligence collection, early warning of law enforcement actions, operational planning or logistical sustainment.

Then they train them (elementary school), give them minor tasks to accomplish to test them (high school) and then they get assigned to one branch or another to play for a while (college ball) and then, as their skill level or access and placement brings them up on the higher-ups' radar, they get drafted into the big league ball arena. Of course, that is assuming that Darwinism doesn't get them first...

[Duncan Kinder]

According to Asia Times Online:

"'However, I safely make a conjecture that those highly motivated boys were exploited by agents provocateurs. A religious Muslim youth in his early 20s is undoubtedly full of hatred against the US, and if somebody would guide them to carry out any attack on US interests, there would be a strong chance that they would go for that.

"'And I think this is exactly what happened. The government of Pakistan has been seriously trying to cleanse groups like Muhajiroun and Hizbut Tehrir from Pakistan, as well as from the UK. Both groups are fiercely anti-establishment and serious about staging a coup in Pakistan and were enhancing their influence among youths in cities like Lahore and Islamabad. So they were basically trapped,' the jihadi said."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HH15Df03.html

If this is correct, then the current British bombing plot sounds much like the Babington Plot, an Elizabethan plot by a group of Catholics to assassinate Queen Elizabeth. Headed by Sir Anthony Babington, a group of naive young Catholics were outmaneuvered and quite possibly provoked or entrapped by Sir Francis Walsingham’s intelligence service. The Babington Plots exposure certainly served Walsingham's purposes, because he used it to effect the execution of Mary Queen of Scots.

[ptcruiser]

If the three young men who were arrested for trying to buy an in ordinate number of cell phones belong to a terrorist network, the network has just learned not to buy phones retail. In the future the network can set up a dummy business, say, a grocery or electronics parts store in a low income neighborhood; in fact, it could set up several dummy stores in a large metropolitan area. Once the dummy businesses are established the "owners" could buy the phones it needs over a period of time and not arouse any suspicions.

[Chris]

Enigma, not sure if this was addressed, but this plot was monitored by MI5 and ISI for some months. Moreover, I think it is quite interesting that London Bomber Tanweer warned in his homicide video that more attacks with greater ferocity would strike England. Bin Laden also threatened the U.S. in January. This plan was in the pipeline for some time, I'm afraid. That pipeline is much more robust than most in the West realize.

I find the analogy of a pick-up game to be quite interesting. It certainly describes the nature of self-starters, and can also address frequent players and established locations of "play". In pick-up games, there will be players with varying levels of expertise. There will also be common areas of assembly. Maybe it is worthwhile to ponder the thought experiment: how do you stop pick-up games around the world?

[ptcruiser100]

Chris> "Maybe it is worthwhile to ponder the thought experiment: how do you stop pick-up games around the world?"

We can't and that is one of the problems now. Once the other side stumbles into an organizing process that works for them and they begin to improvise and refine this process and elevate some or all of the steps into organizing principles their pursuers will be too far behind.

I'd be interested in getting a re-analysis of the liquid bomb plot now. If the news coming out currently is accurate -- that the planners had not purchased any airline tickets, that many did not have passports, and that they had not obtained the liquid explosives when the Brits arrested them -- how does that change John's "good news/bad news" analysis of the operation? If the above is true, then the reports of an "attack now" message from al Qaeda are almost certainly inaccurate. That seems to negate the "good news" that al Qaeada is exerting too much top-down influence.

Does any of the new information cast the bad news in a slightly better light? My initial reaction is probably not: transport infrastructure was still seems to have been targetted by a self-initiated group. Does the new information change the analysis is any other way?

I'd be interested to here everyone's thoughts.

[Syn Diesel]

Bullshit Detectors are starting to go off. Discussion of peroxide-based IEDs:

http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200608/msg00087.html

[ArtAnker]

>"We should be wary of projecting our own belief system or perception
> of reality onto someone else not from our culture." -- MDE

You mean like this?

> Also, it appears that the operation wasn't directed at purely symbolic
> targets ... but against the transportation infrastructure itself
> (like the successful attack on Madrid and last years attack on London).
> This slow shift reflects a growing realization, echoed by an increasing
> number of sources, that system disruption is more valuable in this war
> than the destruction of symbols.-- John Robb

What clearer example did you have in mind of a westerner's biased perception influencing an incorrect analysis of terrorist motivations?

This "slow shift to attacking transport infrastructure" which is supposedly evidenced by this plot along with the Madrid and London train bombings, does of course bear a striking resemblance to the completely unchanged motivation evident in those same attacks and every other attack targetting the general public of just wanting to kill the maximum amount of infidels possible.

What is the point of cautioning someone on John Robb's blog not to let their pre-existing assumptions about motivation influence their interpretation about terrorist attacks?
That is the whole point of the blog itself.

[smothers]

This is ridiculous-the british government is working against dozens of terror plots at one time, this plot was foiled because Al Queda uncharicteristically maintained top down control of the plotters, and we have to maintain constant vigilance to foil these evildoers? Bull.

One of the main points of this site is to highlight low hanging fruit plucked by global terrorists that have the common sense to exploit vulnerabilities of a system to bring it down. Oil pipelines are attacked, power stations taken out of comission, NONE of this is happening to the United States. ALL of our infrastructure in the United States is essentially unprotected, our southern border is completely open to infiltration, but NOTHING IS HAPPENING. How hard would it really be to attack a sports stadium and inflict mass casualties, or to walk up to a power plant with a grenade and blow something up?

I can hit a major oil refinery with a rock from highway 70 in Denver, anyone with the motivation and means could probably blow it sky high. None of this is happening either here or in the UK. We have a terror plot that had not even selected targets yet, and probably didn't even have any explosives, but somehow we are under a deluge of terror that we are barely able to beat back.

If there was a card I could fill out and send to BP Amoco or the Republican party that says "I'm scared. Enough allready!" would all of this fear mongering stop? Would anyone focus on the Sudan or China if I voluntarily allowed millions of cameras into downtown Denver, got my national ID card and RFID chip, stopped voting, and got my trash picked up by Halliburton?

Sad to say, our national intelligence agencies are focused on collecting data on citizens of the united states, agencies like the FBI and CIA are too incompetent to stop anything like September 11th, but still we are still alive. We have not been nuked, gassed, poisoned, or blown up since September 11th within the united states, and it has nothing to do with efforts within our government to stop such acts. It has everything to do with the fact that the terrorists are not attacking us. Any stories to the contrary I view with extreme skepticism.

[ArtAnker]

> I can hit a major oil refinery with a rock from highway 70 in
> Denver, anyone with the motivation and means could probably blow it
> sky high. None of this is happening either here or in the UK.

You only think this isn't happening because you are looking at this objectively and letting terrorist's actions inform your analysis of their motivations.

It's much easier if you work the other way and decide what their motivations are for them then simply say their actions fit your analysis.

Convincing yourself that every attack on mass transport systems is an attack on systems rather than people also helps. Like the London, Madrid and Mumbai train bombings.
They hate our transit.

[Syn Diesel]

Fake Terror. Theater. Light and Shadows on Plato's Cave Wall.

John must be aware of the fucked-up nature of corporate management culture, both private and public; I wonder why he hasn't applied this knowledge to the 4GW environment. Creative people running big operations do odd things that don't seem to make sense at first blush.

[Syn Diesel]

smothers, I prefer the oxy-fuel attck myself. Great plot convenience potential. ;)

Btw, Jeff Wells has some thoughts on this at his blog: http://rigint.blogspot.com/2006/08/massacre-of-innocents.html

"In 1990 a parliamentary report into the massacres concluded that the killers were members or former members of the security forces: "extreme right-wingers who enjoyed high-level protection and were preparing a right-wing coup," wrote Phil Davidson in Britain's The Independent on Sunday. "The Brebant killings were part of a conspiracy to destabilize Belgium's democratic regime, possibly to prepare the ground for a right-wing coup." Just months later, the hidden architecture of fascist terror was revealed when Belgium's secret "stay behind" army - its own Gladio network - was disclosed. (It's from Ganser's NATO's Secret Armies, which tells similar stories from all across Western Europe, that the above excerpt is drawn.)"

John, you might benefit from paying attention to the pre-cognitive intuitions you have on why all this is happening. Madness is where inventions come from and Paranoia is just a market signal. ;)

[g510]

Okay, so it is now 24 August and what do we have?

The going hypothesis seems to be that the "liquid explosives" op got blown because Al Q was exercising too much centralized control.

The only supporting evidence I know of so far is the report of intercepted communications saying in effect "do it now."

But I have a serious problem with that evidence: it exposes SIGINT sources & methods, which is a HUGE no-no. Yes we have seen that kind of exposure before, from the Senator who spilled the beans about intercepting Osama's satellite phone to the Bush Admin spokespeople who routinely blab about "picking up terrorist chatter" (i.e. intercepting signals) to the Iran Crypto leak (go look it up and get bloody pissed). But I have to believe, I have to hope anyway, that GCHQ, the memetic heirs of Bletchley Park, are a bit more discrete than that!

What else do we have? A reported HUMINT penetration of the cell? There we go, more sources & methods exposure!

Also, reports that the concentration level of the peroxide needed to make the bomb, was such that the chemical was not readily available and would be traceable. So now we are not dealing with hardware store chemicals any more.

And last but not least, some of the suspects have been released due to inadequate evidence. (One can only hope they are being watched closely to see where they go and with whom they speak.)

Something is not adding up. I do not subscribe to conspiracy theories or reflex-level cynicism about government, but something here is not adding up. Alternative hypothesis: this is an Al Q psyop or intel collection op, testing our defenses, testing our methods. This is an enemy with a sense of patience, an enemy that operates on the basis of a positive-feedback escalation of force (two eyes for an eye), and an enemy that cultivates and relishes vengeance with all the sensual pleasure of a wine connoisseur savoring a choice vintage.

I don't believe Al Q will turn to systems disruption targets; that is too much the Western way of thinking, based on engineering and economics and calculated cost-effectiveness. Al Q is more intereseted in mass casualty attacks that inflict agonizing deaths in large numbers and maximize the emotional collateral damage on the population. Airliners, cruise ships, railroads, tunnels, bridges, perhaps hospitals and shopping malls and schools. Think of situations where the victims are trapped and unable to escape as they anticipate their impending painful deaths, and ideally where all of this is captured by cameras and broadcast on live television, as the nation watches, stunned.

Meanwhile, all the second-guessing and conspiracy theorizing and paranoia only serves to illustrate one point clearly: our civilian leadership has lost credibility about these issues on such a wide scale that such talk has become a commonplace. This should serve as a warning about the excesses of executive power, and a wake-up call for this year's elections. The absence of an attack has little to do with successes on the part of the civilian leadership, and much to do with the attackers' patience. We cannot afford to keep making the same mistakes over and over again.