CATASTROPHIC BLACK SWANS

The arrival of global guerrillas -- small groups that can successfully fight wars against states -- is merely the first expression of a much larger trend line. The larger trend is a radical improvement in the productivity of warfare through the use of mechanisms outside of the control of the state. Since there have been no strides in eliminating the drivers of warfare at the small group level (in fact, just the opposite has happened) and our core systems remain hopelessly concentrated/interconnected, the use of this newly emergent productivity is inevitable.

If we follow this trend line, the path in development is clear. First, over the next decade or two, the size of the group necessary for global warfare will continue to decrease and decentralize (through a near term shift to systems disruption and open source organizational forms). Second, we will eventually reach a point when the weaponry available to these groups will enable them to initiate a catastrophic black swan (an event that is impossible to predict).

RAND's Charles Meade and Roger Molander provide a great example of a catastrophic black swan in their contemplation of the effects of the explosion of a nuclear bomb, smuggled in a shipping container, at the port of Long Beach CA (PDF). Of particular interest are the cascading effects of such an attack -- such as port closures across the US, which would result the immediate economic isolation of the US for an indeterminate duration. Of course, viewed within the context of a catastrophe like this, it is important to consider the first expression of this trend line (global terrorism using conventional weaponry) as a grace period. History has given us an opportunity to get security right before the next wave hits. So far, it doesn't look like we have learned anything at all.

Comments

[Duncan Kinder]

"History has given us an opportunity to get security right before the next wave hits. So far, it doesn't look like we have learned anything at all."

The reason is that too many people have a vested interest in the current way of doing things.

Analogy: if I were a medieval knight in shining armor, you could argue with me until you were blue in the face that I should abandon my castle, my charger, and my lance in favor of canons and musketry.

Despite the technical merit of your argument, I would ignore you, because that would mean I would thereby loose my lady fair and be forced to rub shoulders with those God-awful peasants.

An elementary critique of current security needs would promptly demonstrate that we need alternative energy. But, instead, we want to have fun, fun, fun, fun until Daddy takes the T-bird away.

[James Bowery]

I suspect civilization must be torn to shreds in order to institute a new order. Indeed, any system that doesn't allow people of like mind to form experimental microstates on territory adequate for agricultural carrying capacity, is demanding to be kept ignorant of real alternatives by limiting the source of innovation to political dialogue, rather than the enlightenment principle of the experiment.

``It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful in its success, than an attempt to introduce innovations. For the leader in the introduction of changes will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new.''

Niccolò Machiavelli
The Prince and The Discourses
1513, Chapter 6.

[Kim McDodge]

Well said, all of you. This is why DeSoto bypasses the bureaucratic classes of business and gov as well as the reactionaries for the alignment of awake politicos and workers, in reality, rare, indeed.

As to experiments and the (no small) matter of agricultural carrying capacity upon which they rely, we have not begun to consider the repercussions of our increased understandings of our soil foodwebs and intensive techniques of herding, macro and micro around our plants.

[sammy small]

"History has given us an opportunity to get security right before the next wave hits. So far, it doesn't look like we have learned anything at all."

Oh we've learned quite a bit. We've learned that what our service members do in the name of our country can be used against them in military and world courts. We've learned that an EU country can indict the president for war crimes. We've learned that the Geneva conventions are a minimum standard which must be complied with by the U.S. in any foreign endeavor. We've learned that well funded individuals and organizations such as the U.N., Amnesty International, and the ACLU will go to extreme lengths to divulge operational scenarios to the ever eager press. We've learned that the ambulance chasing foreign wire services use propaganda and fauxtography to discredit classic operations.

I agree we are fighting a losing battle.

[Chris]

When do you guestimate the black swan is possible? I guess there are a ton of variables, but I would think it is still decades away. At least a decade away.

Though it must be countered today, of course.

[daCascadian]

James Bowery >"I suspect civilization must be torn to shreds in order to institute a new order..."

Well, it must, at least, be completely "rotten" for the revolution to be worth it

"All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door." - John Kenneth Galbraith

[gmoke]

Build in resilience. Take care of yourself so you can take care of others.

Keep your ears open for the sound of hoofbeats, zebra hoofbeats.

[Aayush Iyer]

Enabling a Black Swan in itself is a contradiction to the laws of it's occurrence. They are catastrophic, but can hardly be considered unpredictable then (atleast by a black swan definition)

[John Robb]

Aayush, you are right to an extent. It depends on how you shave the word prediction. If you limit it to timing, place, and weapon type you can still consider it unpredictable despite an increase in the enabling factors. While the overall potential for it occurring may be increasing steadily, the other factors make it so volatile in its impact that it can't translate into risk.

[Duncan Kinder]

John:

You might want to look up Lewis Thomas' discussion of Sir Alexander Flemings' discovery of penicillin, which - for want of a better term - I shall call a "good black swan."

To refresh peoples' memories, Fleming, in the late 1920's, was was wandering through his laboratory when he came across a petrie dish that, by accident, had become infected with mold. The petrie dish around the mold was clear; the bacteria had died. Fleming realized that there was something about the mold that was killing the surrounding bacteria. Hence penicillin.

According to Thomas, this episode, though startling and unpredictable, was far from random.

To wit:

People do not leave petrie dishes lying about at random. They are carefully dedicated to a specific purpose and are gathered at locales called laboratories, which are intended for medical research.

Fleming was a highly trained specialist who was equipped to perceive the significance of the mold. By hypothesis, we may suppose that the laboratory janitor also had made the same observation but had been unable to grasp its significance.

That bacteria had any relationship to disease was not at all obvious. Only 50 years earlier, Pasteur had to fight enormous battles with the medical establishment to prove this. If Fleming had been trained to consider disease the result of imbalance in bodily humours ( earth, air, fire, and water, etc. ) then he would not have considered the death of bacteria to have been important.

The medical establishment at Flemings' time was ready, willing, and able to implement the discoveries. If Pastuer, instead, had made the observation, he would have been a voice crying in the wilderness.

When lightning strikes a dry and parched forest, the results differ from when it strikes a lush and verdant one.

[eninga_foundry]

When do you guestimate the black swan is possible? I guess there are a ton of variables, but I would think it is still decades away. At least a decade away.

No. Certain kinds could happen today. Inadequate imagination and communication between policy makers and those who understand the possibilities of genetical modified organisms, had left the door open for a catastrophe.

[AoT]

I am at a loss as to how a nuclear attack would be a Black Swan Attack. A nuclear attack would be a suprise in terms of timing only, not in terms of tactics, which seems to be the defining aspect of a black swan attack.

The point here is that while we are worrying about nukes and bio-warfare someone is out there thinking up some oddball methods of causing damage. Not that we shouldn't worry about nukes.

[Isaac]

AoT - Consider:
"Activities at the tactical level of war focus on the application of combat power to defeat an enemy in combat at a particular time and place. Tactics can be thought of as the art and science of winning engagements and battles."
FMFM1 p23
By this definition, the Long Beach scenario would not be a 'tactical' Black Swan, or even tactical, per se, at all. What particular engagement or battle? In many ways the scenario could turn out to be a 4GW strategic victory for the enemy. Could not the effect in the moral sphere, the critical theater of 4GW - 'everything in 4GW is a Psy-Op', be approaching that of a death-blow? To my thinking, it'd be close. Not to be defeatist or overly-doomsdayish, but 'Black Swan' has such a ring of finality to it. In this case, the scope is certainly broad enough to admit of radical, world-view-changing re-positioning. The secondary, tertiary, etc.... effects of a nuclear bomb going off at ground level in Long Beach, if truly pondered, could add up to a re-thinking of things on our side which could end all the way back at 'square one' strategically.
Sadly, you're probably right with regard to it being a surprise in terms of timing only. I assume you refer to the spotty inspection records at our ports. Does this mean that we all are resigned to such an event as an eventuality? What does that say as to our moral health and readiness in the current conflict?

[georgb]

no offense, but this is really fairly silly doomsday article.
don't you think it would help to counter terrorism by political means, like force israel to accept a palestinian state and work with syria, iran and let's say india to bring some kind of stability into the region again?

[Isaac]

None taken. To my mind, though, the Long Beach scenario would certainly be a doomsday (granted, not THE doomsday, perhaps) event. I simply found it interesting to consider the event and its ramifications within the framework of 4GW.
To answer your question, yes, political, diplomatic and covertly-influential efforts are absolutely a good idea. They can help. It, then, merely becomes of question of traction. How much will each line undertaken get? A recent Time magazine has an article entitled, "What Bush Should Have Said." What sort of traction, that is, change or results, do you think he'd get if he opened the suggested channels of dialogue? Further, and, again, particularly with regard to our current conflict, what kind of meaningful political dialogue could even exist between a government (and its entities) and a non-state organization? How wise would it be to even seek such a dialogue?

[stevelaudig]

What follows is one of several stories in the “Advertiser” about an “accident” in which a military vehicle transporting a demolition or construction crane struck an overpass on O’ahu Island, Hawai'i hard enough to make it unusable. Since the transportation system on O’ahu has choke points and this happened near one of the chokepoints the result was a nifty shutdown of virtually all vehicular travel of about a half-day across the entire island. The Advertiser allows comments on articles. One of the comments is republished here and explains a knock-on consequence.

Surface transportation was jammed and shortly there after cell phone communications jammed, because people like “Aileen” were calling for no reason other than an “update.” The law enforcement response was clownish.

So the lesson is that increasing interconnectedness plus pushing actual use up close to theoretical limits combined with predictable “accidents” results in a “locking up” effect that will jump from one system to another. It’s the adding of that one last car onto the freeway that turns it from slow moving to parking. A catalytic freezing of movement effect that gets transmitted through out the system. I imagine there’s a name for the phenomenon, but I don’t know what it is. If there isn’t one I suggest “Ice-Nine” in honor off Kurt Vonnegut and it is a relative of the more intentional “Black Swan” phenomenon.

Tuesday, September 5, 2006

Mauka half of H-1 overpass to be demolished tonight

By Dan Nakaso
Advertiser Staff Writer
State Transportation workers tonight will demolish at least the mauka half of the H-1 Freeway's 'Aiea pedestrian overpass after a military vehicle rammed through it this afternoon, rendering it unsafe and clogging traffic for thousands of O'ahu commuters.
The collision damaged the vertical support beam of the overpass and the horizontal portion that stretches across the H-1 and may require officials to dismantle the makai side as well, said Scott Ishikawa, spokesman for the state Department of Transportation.

"Strands of cable are the actual strength of the structure and some are already snapped," Ishikawa said. "After we demolish the mauka half, we'll have to make an assessment of the makai side. They're actually two separate structures connected by an expansion joint in the middle."

Transportation officials will close all six 'ewa-bound lanes at least through tomorrow's rush hour and will not open the normal town-bound zipper lane or the lane closest to the middle of the overpass.

The result will be only five lanes of town-bound traffic instead of the normal seven, Ishikawa said.

"Leave early and be patient," Ishikawa said. "When people get inpatient, that's when we get more accidents."

Sherrie Menor, a Mililani accountant for a telecommunications company, flew in from Las Vegas this afternoon with her husband, Nestor, and planned to take a taxi ride to her in-laws in Waipahu.

The Menors had taken the same taxi ride recently at a cost of $40 — plus tip.

But after more than 2 1/2 hours in the taxi on the H-1, the meter already stood at $86 and the Menors were not even to the Ice Palace.

"It ain't working," Sherrie Menor said. "Thanks to that crane hitting the overpass, we're still here. (The fare) will probably be triple now."

The damaged occurred at about 1:45 p.m. today when a large crane being towed on a trailer behind a military truck rammed through the nearly 17-foot tall pedestrian walkway, Ishikawa said.

• • •

Read comments below from commuters who were stuck in traffic today. You can also register and submit a photo and view the photo gallery.

[Posted on September 5, 2006 at 7:34 pm HST]
I called my daughter to warn her & she left NBC area about 4pm. I've been calling her about every 30 minutes checking on her progress. She was on Middle Street by OTS at 6pm, not too much farther ahead at 6:30pm, 7pm she was going to get off the freeway to go to KMART in Salt Lake...need to go lua...it's now 7:30...time to check on her again. Oh, and my husband? I don't expect to see him anytime tonight either. James, let us know when your wife gets home...I suspect it might be after 10pm. Thanks truck driver, get a permit next time & take Kam Hwy!!
Aileen

[Stephen Carville]

As I was reading Mr. Robb's posting I was reminded of the following quote

"It is a commonplace that the history of civilisation is largely the history of weapons. In particular, the connection between the discovery of gunpowder and the overthrow of feudalism by the bourgeoisie has been pointed out over and over again. And though I have no doubt exceptions can be brought forward, I think the following rule would be found generally true: that ages in which the dominant weapon is expensive or difficult to make will tend to be ages of despotism, whereas when the dominant weapon is cheap and simple, the common people have a chance. Thus, for example, thanks, battleships and bombing planes are inherently tyrannical weapons, while rifles, muskets, long-bows and hand-grenades are inherently democratic weapons. A complex weapon makes the strong stronger, while a simple weapon--so long as there is no answer to it--gives claws to the weak."

George Orwell "You and the Atomic Bomb", 1945
http://tmh.floonet.net/articles/abombs.html

The rise of the GG's is not a particularly good thing, IMO. However, if it is just a side efect of firepower becoming more democractic they may not be long for this world anyway. Peaceful people usually do not tolerate obnoxious trouble makers unless they have to.

[g510]

Here's a possible black swan for you.

This one requires no high tech and could probably be fully organized and equipped within a month, using nothing more than the weaponry you can buy in the average gang-infested ghetto. Oh, and it's basically undetctable. No amount of domestic COMINT or secret torture chambers could bring this one to light before it occurred.

Call this the 20-20-2 scenario. I don't know if this quite qualifies as "catastrophic," but it would probably wreck the economy for a year or possibly longer.

Twenty terrorists in the US.

Twenty shopping malls.

Two days: the Friday after Thanksgiving, and the Saturday one week later.

---

On Friday, ten terrorists load bombs into the trunks of their cars and head to large regional indoor shopping malls across the country, intending to arrive at synchronized times: e.g. 11am West Coast, Noon Mountain time, 1pm Central, and 2pm Eastern.

They park in the parking garages, to increase the effects of their bombs.

They get out of their cars, carrying shopping bags that have been strengthened (with duct tape, as professional shoplifters use to prepare bags that can be filled with stolen goods), and that contain a couple of hand grenades and an automatic weapon with an appropriate number of rounds. Last but not least they check the rip cords on their suicide bomb vests.

They walk up to the entrances of their respective malls. They go to the most crowded part of their respective entrance areas, and remotely detonate their car bombs. The explosions kill people in the parking garages and cause panic outside and inside the malls.

From inside, each terrorist pretends at first to be a shopper in a panic, and shouts, "Quick!, Get out of here!" or something of that sort. As the crowd surges toward the exits, the terrorist pulls out hand grenades and tosses them back in the crowd, and then pulls out the automatic weapon and starts shooting. As a few brave souls in the crowd attempt to grab the terrorist, he pulls the rip cord on his explosive vest. Boom, another martyr gets his virgins.

Total deaths, probably not more than 100 to 200 at any given mall; multiplied by ten malls, total of 1,000 to 2,000 nationwide.

For the following week, no one is going shopping, and retailers are taking a major hit. The stock market tanks.

By Saturday, those people who are starting to feel a bit more courageous, return to the malls. As do the remaining ten terrorists, for their second round.

Due to heightened security (really?!), they use slightly different methods to get into the mall parking areas and go into the malls. Perhaps they conceal an automatic weapon and a grenade or two on their person instead of in a shopping bag. In any case, they pull off what is essentially a repeat performance.

This time, everyone is scared out of their wits and stays home for the duration. No more winter shopping season, and internet sales barely begin to cover the difference. Whatever emergency measures the Federal government has put into place after the first wave of attacks get tightened further.

Retail goes all the way down the toilet, and the stock market does likewise. Malls find their insurances canceled, so they can't stay open for business. Mall employees don't want to come in to work, not that there's work for them to do with no shoppers to be found. Mall management companies take a big hit and some malls close permanently. Major national retailers are reeling.

From the retail sector the impact spreads outward like an atomic bomb fallout pattern on a windy day, taking out wholesale suppliers, manufacturers, and then those who supply raw materials and durable goods to commercial users (e.g. production line equipment, feedstocks, etc.). Unemployment figures tell the story as they increase from one month to the next.

With the economy on ths skids, tax collections follow, and the Federal govt is forced to make the difficult choice (okay, easy choice for the present Administration) of racheting up the national debt accordingly. At some point, foreign lenders begin to frown on all of this debt, and demand higher prices for lending.

How long does the damage last? Depends on what happens next, and how easily the traumatized public can be scared with the occasional attack here or there.

[R. Dickson]

I was IN THAT traffic jam in Honolulu. Believe you me I thought about that. Oh yeah.

5 and a half hours to go 15 miles.

Repeat -Yes I really thought about that under the H-1 Viaduct when we were not moving for 45 minutes!

[enigma_foundry]

Here's a possible black swan for you.

Possible yes, but the effect would be of limited duration.

Using novel infectious agant, interesting interactions develop beteeen the media and the government. The government will refuse to recognize that which it has not prepared for and cannot explain. The rift, as the disease develops, produces an expanding information gulf which also de-legitmizes governmental authority rather quickly.

[AoT]

I remember waking up on 11 sept. and turning on the TV. Before the full magnitude of the situation hit me all I could think was "planes into a building, brilliant." All of these possible "black swan" scenarios lack one thing, they do not significantly differ from what has happened before. They are easy to consider because they fall into the paradigm of war that we, at this site at least, accept. The next Black Swan will likely not happen for a long time; when was the last one before 11 sept?

It might not even involve direct violence. Perhaps a net-effect attack on American financial systems. Maybe even a purely PR attack, the takeover of an emergency broadcasting system and announcement of evacuation from a major city.

The point is, if we can figure out the way it will work and expect it, it isn't a black swan.

[Josh Koenig]

I still think the nuclear threat is mostly hype. GG groups lack not only the connections, but also the technical sophistication to really do this. You need to test it to have it work. How do you test a nuclear bomb without bringing a shitstorm down?

[g510]

Re. nuclear:

Personally I don't worry much about terrorist nuclear bombs. What I worry about is biologicals. Bugs are much easier to produce and deploy, and they do something fallout doesn't: they MULTIPLY.

Re. Enigma Foundry re. "effect ..of limited duration":

If your userID is a clue to your place of employment, I assume you or your coworkers have already run a scenario like that on a spare Cray during lunch break, in which case I'll defer to your judgement.

Though, having survived the dotcom crash I can tell you that the effects on the region, of a single industry going down the toilet, lasted for three or four years. Those effects were not catastrophic but they were highly disruptive. Thus it seems logical that taking down the retail sector nationwide, an industry in itself and more importantly the distribution system for numerous other industries, by hitting it at a critical location in time (which can be as important as a critical location in space i.e. geography), could have far wider effects. Whether those effects last as long or longer than the dotcom crash, remains to be seen. And if the prevalence of routine suicide bombings in Israel is any indication, we will find out for ourselves.

[Rikkert]

John,
I think a single catastrophic event is exactly what the trends you describe on this blog (a shift from large scale, hierarchically controlled systems towards a smaller self organising ones) aren't pointing towards. The nuclear scenario is particularly unlikely. A nuclear attack would require a large scale, control based organization, the guerrillas are moving in the opposite direction. It's even doubtful such a move would do the guerrillas any good. If the goal is systems disruptions, there are better means; you write about them.
I think the black swan scenario we're moving towards isn't a single catastrophic event, but a series of small events that coalesce into system collapse. It is unlikely it will be the work of a single group, I expect quite a diverse group of actors in this tragedy. The global guerrillas we're familiar with may play their part, so may climate activist going violent, nature itself, internal disorder in critical regions of the world and a lot of other factors. This scenario is a true "black swan" since there is an infinite number of ways for a combination of small events to cascade into system failure in any number of critical systems.

[Fiona]

The black swan phenomenon I can sorta grasp. But when it comes to zebra hoofbeats, I admit I'm stumped.