JOURNAL: US Central Command's Chaos Meter

Michael Gordon provides us with a leaked powerpoint graphic from a classified briefing by the US Central Command (click the graphic to the left for a better view). What makes this interesting isn't the fact that the military recognizes Iraq's slide (which indicates that the military may be leaking this to provide posterior political armor against the inevitable backlash a defeat in Iraq will generate), rather, it is the use of the term "chaos" as a military metric. This harkens back to my earlier brief on "controlled chaos" back in 2005. Post the Samarra bombing (a social systempunkt attack), it has been all down hill. The rate of the decline has been very quick, in large part due to global guerrilla preparation of the Iraqi battlespace.

Comments

[adam]

John,

What is fascinating me is that the chart itself makes some assumptions. OK I can accept Peace at one side of the scale, but its counterpoint War - rather than Chaos - should be on the other side. The 1980-88 period in Iraq would be hardly considered to be chaotic, it just happens that the longest land war in the 20th century was fought at that time.

So for the American military Chaos is worse than War because they're ill-equipped to deal with it, by definition. I think its a sign that the US military is still stumbling towards understanding the issues, which is - after nearly 4 years - not a good sign.

Whats even more interesting is that Iraq isn't quite in the red chaos area. Apparently the US military thinks that things can (still) get worse! As the film La Haine said about the man falling from the high building "so far so good, so far so good..."

[ramsis]

it may seem easier for some to view the war in iraq through the eyes of spread sheets and graphs. i cant help but wonder where iraq would be on the meter if it were looked at this way throughout its history. when the ottoman turks were sending armenians in mass to mosul to their deaths where would that put them in the chaos meter, or during the iran iraq war, the gassing of the kurds, bloody coups and crushed rebellions would they have been considered in a state of chaos yet. Iraq has always been a mess, since before its conception wether under british, turkish, or arab control it has been soaked in blood.So we ask ourselves if this isn't it then what will chaos look like? I imagine somewhat like Cambodia in the days of pol pot,Rawanda in the mid 90s,or even Sudan of today are just a few examples. it is examples like these that america is hoping to avoid but with the political wind changing and civil support gone at home we may indeed find an area beyond even centcoms idea of chaos.

[Andy]

Well, whoever made that slide would have been better suited to have put "order" at one end of the spectrum, and "disorder" at the other end of the spectrum.

When you can't even define the parameters correctly, is there any wonder that they can't figure out 4GW or the global guerilla phenomena?

Sad, really.

[adam]

Ramsis,

Agree completely. However Iraq has often had governments that would be considered to be "cruel but fair" as Monty Python would have put it. Iraq is a nation in a very rough neighbourhood, and we (the British and the US) haven't helped the situation one bit.

As for where its going to go I think its going to look like Germany during the 30 years war; foreign powers stamping around with their own agendas, massive civilian casualties, violent religious issues, and the start of a new nationalism that will reverberate for generations.

[Davod]

Ramsis: I tend to agree. This is such a short period and the violence is being taken out of proportion.

Adam: Cruel but fair. But where do I, if I was an Iraqi, fit into this picture.

Everyone has an agenda. The level of leakage is ridiculous. Did this slide help our troops in the field. If some REMF leaked this to support his/her or his/her boss's agenda then it needs to stop.

[adam]

Davod,

"Where do I fit in?" Surely an odd question. I'm going to have to make some assumptions about the question itself. It think you mean what would happen to the average Iraqi. In Iraq - prior to 2003 - it depended, as in every nation, on talent, skills, birth, connections and other things foremost of which is - of course - luck. Today its a lot harder, those who are well off do OK, those who are poor are not, and those that are unlucky enough to be called Omar at the wrong checkpoint are taken off the bus and shot in the back of the head. Thats civil war for you. I doubt the Germans in the 1600s thought it was a good thing either. The bottom line is that some people are born lucky, others are still in the incubator when the shock and awe hits the generator.

I think the issue here is that some Americans think that Iraq, prior to, say, the invasion of Kuwait was like Cambodia in the year zero - with peasants struggling under the guns of Khmer Rouge guerillas. In reality Sadaams dictatorship was quite able to accommodate all sorts of people, offering impressive social advancement. Rather like most societies in the 20th century in fact. Tariq Aziz is both a Catholic and the son of a waiter. In fact you didn't even have to be a member of the party to get on in life, but like being a Republican today it made life an awful lot easier - some Iraqi generals in 2003 weren't Ba'ath party members. This surprised Bremer when he thought that he had fired them.

Anyway in 1979 Iraqi living standards were high, education was advanced. Sure the Baathists were (are) socialists, and socialism in a rich nation can bring some nice rewards all round, but that doesn't make socialists the bogeyman that Americans think.

[arash sotoodeh]

Very good point Adam, people here in the west can hardly imagine how life in the middle east is. I am my own from Iran(live in Germany) , and Iran is pretty much like you described pre war Iraq, but the structures are weak, I am sure a war would destroy them, then a run "we want all the power" would start and the situation would be like now Iraq. It´s interesting how few efforts the army has done to understand Iraqi culture and habits, everyone thought they rather want "wealth" , belong to wealthy nations then be ruled by an Iraqi person and not being occupied.
To Mr. Robbs post, it´s very alarming when an expert says that the situation in Iraq is hopeless and to see how far this opinion is accepted in media. I can also hardly believe that US troops will leave Iraq so soon, but more that from day to day the will be a better target for the insurgents, because the faith in the US troops is to my opinion fading in the Iraqis with each day of violence. The violence will maybe not impress the US gov. , but it will for sure impress the Iraqis and that the problem. thanks Arash

[jheier]

interesting enough, I saw this slide on Ed Tufte's site as someone asked his opinion as to the visual construction.