As the debate over the value of the Iraq study group's report rumbles on, it's important to reflect on larger frame within which this debate is taking place. This frame, little discussed as a cohesive phenomenon, is the emergence of a new class of threat.
We can catch a glimpse of this new class (and given that even a glimpse is enough to stump the establishment, it should be a dire warning) in Iraq. What is different about the war in Iraq is that the threat developing there shows a pattern of bottoms up growth -- percolating upwards through catalyzed organic processes -- rather than the familiar competition between nation-states and the historical patterns of guerrilla/proxy warfare. It's also fundamentally different in that there isn't any human agency than controls more than a minor fraction of its process of development. Here's a quick list of threats that fall into this new class (not exhaustive):- Global guerrillas. As seen in Iraq, Nigeria and other locales. Open source warfare and systems disruption. Fragmentation and chaos that can swallow states and regions. In the mid-term: super-empowered actors that can wield bio-weapons.
- Peak oil and resource depletion. The acceleration of resource consumption due to the mainlining of China and India at the very point these resources are reaching capacity limits.
- Global warming. Not the slow change discussed, but rather a cascading change in weather patterns and ocean flows that drastically change continental climates. Ditto the mainlining of China and India as a driver here too.
- Pandemics. Bird flu and other forms of infectious disease that can sweep the world in the matter of days. Have infection, will travel.
Speed and Scale
In each case, the threat we see appears distant and remote until just before it becomes intractable, global, and (faintly) apocalyptic. One reason for this is that globalization and new technologies radically accelerate the speed at which these threat can grow/escalate. These threats don't just emerge in a form that can be dealt with through careful deliberation, they explode once they reach an ignition point.
The response we can generate to combat these threats is overwhelmed not only by the speed at which they can appear, it is also trumped by their scale. All of these threats intertwine the actions of billions of actors that span the globe and they can break individual nation-states like kindling wood. It defies logic to think that a nation-state or even a group of nation-states can even remotely approach the response necessary for mitigating this class of problem once its effects are felt.Systemic Resilience
The only solution for these problems isn't something that gains much currency from the current decision makers. There isn't any built-in audience ready with money and support to make them happen (at least, not yet). The reason is that systemic resilience is hard. It reverses power relationships and pushes control to the edges. It simplifies processes and builds-in dampening forces to limit the impact of any shocks that ripple through our global network. It forces changes in individual behavior to broaden skill sets and limit dependencies. In short, it isn't anything you will read in any report generated by current or past power brokers.
How do we make it easier to get from here to there before it is forced upon us? I'll write more on this in future briefs.
Recent Comments