4GW FORCES AND GREATER MIDDLE EAST WAR

Valdis Krebs, an expert on social network analysis and a friend, has built an interesting interactive map of the social relationships between various groups in the Middle East. It provides a visual representation of the open loop system leading us to war described in my earlier brief. His analysis is brief and to the point:

...sadly those lack of loops [connections] have things going in the wrong direction. I have been updating my Mideast Network Map based on the News. Now the network map self-organizes into what will likely be the "sides" in a greater Mideast war... With two opposing clusters we have more loops WITHIN the clusters and less and less loops between the clusters --> leading the two clusters [now echo chambers] to foment themselves to greater conflict. Disconnection is dangerous. Yet, the pattern of disconnects AND connections that allow two opposing clusters to emerge is most dangerous! The tipping point to war?

What's most interesting to me is the role that is being played in this map by non-state 4GW forces in shaping these clusters. To see this on the Valdis' map, pull the US/Israel to the left and al Qaeda/Hezbollah/Hamas to the right. In this orientation, it becomes clear that the ongoing war between non-state 4GW forces (more autonomous than proxies) and Israel/US is the driver pulling the clusters apart. There are no signs that this conflict will abate. Just the opposite, it looks like it will escalate, and as a result, an inevitable misstep will put the states connected to these clusters into direct conflict.

On a side note, the map also makes a clear case that any and all attempts to connect to Iran and Syria in order to denigrate and/or neutralize connections to the non-state nodes, is paramount to avoiding a larger conflict.

UPDATE: Martin Van Creveld just wrote an article that says something similar. He suggests that efforts should be made to peel Syria away from the emerging bloc (leaving just Iran and 4GW forces):

The common wisdom these days appears to be that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have formed a new axis of evil against the United States and Israel. Given this past summer’s war in Lebanon, there is undeniably something to this view, but it is far from the whole truth — and it is in our own self-interest to acknowledge that our enemies are not necessarily all of the same stripe. The key to the trio is Syria.

Comments

[Duncan Kinder]

John, the problem I have is that I am not quite sure what the relationship between links, on the one hand, and propensity to war, on the other hand is.

Example, in pre-WWI Europe, the Allied and Axis powers were in fact closely linked to one another. Their royal families were closely related. Czar Nicholas and Kaiser Wilheim were not only first cousins but dear, close, personal friends. Nicholas' last message to Wilhelm prior to the war was signed "Nicky." Despite that - war.

[Valdis]

Duncan,
The ties reflect two relationship types...
• political
• economic
and two polarities...
• friend (+)
• foe (-)
The idea for this model came from the Complexity Sciences: simple inputs/rules can produce complex behavior.

[Duncan Kinder]

OK, let me show you another unusual link:

Unity Mitford was Adolph Hitler's mistress.

Jessica Mitford was Unity's sister.

Jessica Mitford married Esmond Romilly.

Esmond Romilly was Winston Churchill's nephew.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitford_family

The point is that when we get into links and networks, things can get very complex and fine indeed.

[stevelaudig]

"After the regular armies had all been beaten ... one saw growing up a system of war in detail, a kind of organized disorder which perfectly suited the unconquerable character of the Spanish nation and the unhappy circumstances in which it found itself." from Memories sur law Guerre des Francaise in Espagne, A.J. de Rocca, 1814, page 139. Quoted in The Spanish Labrynth, Gerald Brenan, Cambridge U. Press, canto 1990, at 193.

[subadei]

Shouldn't al qaeda have a "link" to Saudi Arabia?

[Azr@el]

Shouldn't al qaeda and Saudi Arabia be represented by the same icon?

[french swede the rootless vegetable]

Every loop that the Iranians have tried to connect with the US has been forcefeeded back into their throats by the Bushadmin:

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/The_redacted_Iran_oped_revealed_1222.html

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewPrint&articleId=11539