Global Guerrillas

JOURNAL: Private CIAs

A strong sign that the nation-state is in decay is the frequency we see announcements of companies that are replicating some of the most sensitive government services. The most recent mover is Walmart, which is in the process of putting together its own intelligence arm (it's being built by a former CIA/FBI officer Kenneth Senser). For those unable to afford their own global intelligence unit, Blackwater's Cofer Black is building one called Total Intelligence Solutions.

If you want to get up to speed quickly, the background for this is available in BNW.

MEND'S OPEN SOURCE WAR

One of the groups most likely to play a hand in driving the price of gasoline to $5 a gallon (or much more) and hollow out a major oil producing state isn't Islamic or in the Middle East. It's located in Nigeria and goes under the name of MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta -- more about MEND). Its success so far includes the ongoing disruption of 1/4 of Nigeria's oil output (of light sweet crude destined for the US) and a radical slowdown corporate activity (due to attacks that put pressure on corporate psychology, particularly Shell).

Like al Qaeda, MEND uses an open source insurgency (see BraveNewWar for background on this) to create disorder. Unlike al Qaeda, it doesn't have an operational arm, in that it doesn't have guerrillas of its own to advance its agenda. Instead, MEND uses a light organization to facilitate and hire groups that will hollow out the Nigerian state. Some of the best analysis on MEND is from the very talented James Briggs (who is based in Nigeria). In his recent "Guide to the Armed Groups Operating in the Niger Delta," James describes MEND's operational style:

• A thin leadership structure composed of recognized leaders across the delta that can funnel arms, cash, and training to the ad hoc groups it assembles. This effort has significantly improved the quality of the guerrilla operations in the Niger delta. This leadership organization also carefully manages the publicity surrounding its actions to build brand awareness.
• A large pool of individuals and bands of individuals that have ties to multiple primary loyalties (from ethnic militias to gangs to cults) that are hired to carry out MEND's operations. "For example, 'Mike' from Gbaramatu can fight for MEND one day, rig an election for his local government chief the next, kidnap a foreigner for ransom and get in a cult clash on Saturday."
• Ongoing support for smaller, criminal gangs that take hostages and conduct operations primarily for criminal gain. The reason: it aids in making Niger delta ungovernable.

JOURNAL: Somali Open Source Warfare

Signs of open source warfare in Somalia from Andrew McGregor (writing for Jamestown):

Resistance to Ethiopian troops and the Ethiopian-installed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is inspired by nationalism, religion, economic factors and clan loyalties, yet all of these motivations are part of a constantly shifting pattern of allegiances in which the only common characteristic is a desire to expel foreign troops from Somalia.

JOURNAL: Somali Guerrilla Entrepreneurs

"Taxes are annoying"

Omar Hussein Ahmed, a Somali trader, as an explanation for why fellow traders had bought missiles to shoot at government soldiers. To the New York Times.

For some, it's impossible to imagine why anyone would want an anarchic hollow state instead of an orderly, structured society. It offends their sense of how things work. However, reality is somewhat messier. A great illustrative example of this is Jeffrey Gettleman's (writing for the New York Times) article, "In Somalia, Those Who Feed Off Anarchy Fuel It" (see the brief, "Guerrilla Entrepreneurs" for more on this topic). He writes:

Beyond clan rivalry and Islamic fervor, an entirely different motive is helping fuel the chaos in Somalia: profit. A whole class of opportunists — from squatter landlords to teenage gunmen for hire to vendors of out-of-date baby formula — have been feeding off the anarchy in Somalia for so long that they refuse to let go. They do not pay taxes, their businesses are totally unregulated, and they have skills that are not necessarily geared toward a peaceful society. In the past few weeks, some Western security officials say, these profiteers have been teaming up with clan fighters and radical Islamists to bring down Somalia’s transitional government...

For more insight into how corruption, guerrilla warfare, and black globalization form a feedback driven system that destabilizes states, read my book review of Moises Naim's Illicit. I also have a large section in my book that explains how this works (in detail and with numerous examples so you can easily get your head around the idea).

JOURNAL: Chinese Oil men and Guerrillas in Ethiopia

The ONLF has stated on numerous occasions that we will not allow the mineral resources of our people to be exploited by this regime or any firm. An ONLF spokesman to Reuters.

On April 24, a China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. oil field in eastern Ethiopia (near the Somali border), was attacked by gunmen (presumably by the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the ONLF, an ethnic Somali group that has fought alongside rebels in Somalia). 74 people were killed, including 9 Chinese oil workers. 7 Chinese workers were kidnapped by the assailants as they withdrew under pressure from responding Ethiopian troops. This attack is yet another example of how guerrilla groups are using attacks on companies (to influence corporate psychology) to fight the states that rely upon them for funding (although a close read of this incident suggests that it was the group stumbled upon the right strategy for the wrong reasons). We can expect to see more of this in the future. In addition to the implications for warfare, this may presage the beginning of the end of the easy road for China's aggressive oil acquistions in Africa. Over the last decade, China has increasingly fed its enormous appetite for oil (upwards of 40% of the growth in demand for oil is from China), through deals with African regimes that have significant problems (from genocide to guerrilla wars to rampant corruption). I also suspect that this will significantly shorten the time it takes to see Chinese PMCs (private military companies) in Africa.

OPEN SOURCE RADIO INTERVIEW

I will be on Christopher Lydon's nationally syndicated show Open Source tonight (24 April) for an hour to discuss my book Brave New War.

Here's a recap of the show tonight. Special guests include Richard Clarke and Moises Naim (by the way, Moises' book Illicit is excellent).

Note: I was subpar, but the other guests and the host were amazing. Thanks so much for Dave and Christopher for making this happen. I still have a steep learning curve to go through before I get good at this.

JOURNAL: Swarming revisited

One reason that it seems that the US military and the Iraqi government is besieged on all fronts simultaneously is due to the use of swarming maneuvers (see the brief: "Global Guerrilla Swarming" for a more detailed analysis of the topic). Unlike insurgencies of the past, the open source framework (a mechanism that allows autonomous groups to operate in concert) for Iraq's guerrillas allows them to conduct operational level swarming (see graphic, please forgive the 2x2 but this does the job). In contrast to tactical level swarming focused on overwhelming a specific target, operational swarming goes after a class of targets across large areas to achieve higher order effects.

Chapter: The Superempowered Competition

A chapter excerpt from my book "Brave New War" is up. It's time to rethink the narrative for this war.

JOURNAL: Gated Communities for Baghdad?

Classic counter-insurgency runs into problems when faced by a modern city. The connectivity that is necessary for a city's operation undermines any attempts to hold cleared districts. Recent developments indicate that the COIN team in Baghdad is starting to think the same way. As a result, we will see lots of attempts at ways to reduce this connectivity without destroying the economic basis for the city. The approach that the US military has opted for is an inversion of the gated community approach. It will wall off restive districts from the rest of the city rather than protect successful ones -- the first wall to go up will be a three mile, 12-ft high barrier around the Sunni Adhamiya district. However, since the barrier is based on subtraction (it reduces the connectivity for the restive district to the rest of the city), it will serve to lock-in failure since economic activity will likely halt in the affected area.

QUOTE: Down with Maliki

Down with Maliki! Where is the security plan? We are not protected by this plan.

Shouts from an angry Shiite mob as they threw stones at the US and Iraqi troops that arrived at the scene of one of the 5 car-bombings that killed 160 people in Baghdad on 18 April 2007. Further negative proof that the surge has failed to slow even Sunni insurgent activity or add legitimacy to the apparently hollow government.