JOURNAL: The real Saudi vulnerability

Al Qaeda's recent attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil transport system have been unable to inflict serious damage (although it was a close call last year). However, we can't expect that to last. Since warfare is minds in conflict, we can safely bet that adaption will happen.

One potential avenue of innovation we can expect to occur is a focus Saudi Arabia's electricity system. In contrast to the oil network, the electricity network is sparse, lightly defended, and operates near self-organizing criticality during the summer months -- the pattern of under-investment and rapidly growing domestic demand (7% per year) that created this situation has not been corrected since the outages of last year. Since a major percentage of Saudi Arabia's electricity is for industrial uses (mostly for oil production, processing and transport), even minor intentional disruptions in the electricity system can easily cascade into tightly coupled oil production systems.

It's only a matter of time before the success of guerrillas in disrupting Iraqi electricity, which kept electricity in Baghdad limited to 4 hours a day for 4 years, is exported Saudi Arabia. In an interconnected world, their failure of imagination becomes our vulnerability.

Comments

[Mark Moore]

Is my impression correct that most of the water they're using to help flush out their oil flows from two main pumping stations? If so, then those would be vulnerable points in the system.

[MTbill]

It seems that attacks aimed at disrupting parts of the U.S. electrical grid could be devastating, especially during a heat wave similar to the one in 2006. Given the number of people that lost their lives in the 2003 heat wave in France, this seems like a serious concern and that it could produce the "spectacular" effects al Queda would want in a U.S. operation. Is it naive to think the U.S. grid is vulnerable to a long-term and sustained disruption and that this would be a target?

[Valdis]

Since all other systems are dependent on electricity, that is the one that needs to be guarded AND made more resilient. If the power goes out it does not matter how secure/resilient any other system is.

After having seen network maps of various power grids, I am a BIG fan of locally produced power. It is quite amazing how environmental AND security concerns lead us to similar solutions.

[John Robb]

Valdis, your exactly correct on this (as usual).

MTbill: Our future is an ever greater reliance on electricity rather than less, but we (like the Saudis) continue to underinvest in infrastructure (particularly the local variety that creates resilience). All I can see is vulnerability of our electrical grid as far out into the future as I can see.

Mark, you are right, the water injection system is also acutely vulnerable.

Talking about these vulnerabilities is a tough thing to do. However, as we found in computer security, it is better to expose an exploit to generate a patch rather than to let it continue to exist in silence.

[torkito]

Nice call on the electrical grid. Obvious once you see it; critical points for the supply chain, evident design patterns from the regional conflict to export; A way to move from equally critical yet less secured hubs in the overall network. Bravo

[Hans]

Here in Italy terrorists have a long and never ending love affair with the electricity grid.

In the 60's it was the Suedtirol liberation movement ( in one famous night they brought down 42 transmission towers). In the 70's it was the neofascist's moment. In the 80's the anarchists in Tuscany (mainly the La Spezia-Pisa power line).
Non ever succeded in causing something big. I assume that Italy's Enel might be well prepared for attacks.

[Tangurena]

MTBill, I don't think that we have as much to worry about organized attacks on the electrical supply as we do from plain old copper theft. Such as when people steal grounding wires to sell the copper for scrap:
http://www.csoonline.com/read/020107/fea_metal.html

I haven't heard about crotchety old geezers (in the western states) shooting out electrical insulators for quite some time. I don't know if it still goes on, or not, or if it ever was very serious.

[DJ]

The Risk to Our Oil Supply-- Isn't Oil
http://asymptoticlife.com/2007/06/03/the-risk-to-our-oil-supply-isnt-oil.aspx
John Robb, author of Brave New War, notes that the Saudi's real vulnerability isn't their oil infrastructure...

Saudi Arabia is our third largest supplier of crude oil, supplying 1,356 thosand barrels per day. That's roughly 6.5% of our total consumption of 20,730 thousand barrels per day...