JOURNAL: Global Guerrillas in Mexico

Mexico plays its militarization card and is judged the weaker party:

They are trying to create a climate of intimidation and fear... in order to gain operational advantages. If the residents of a rural town or urban neighborhood come to believe that the drug traffickers cannot be defeated, they will refuse to cooperate with the authorities and create a "social space" of support for the traffickers.

Genaro Garcia Luna, Mexico's secretary of public safety in a press conference covered by the LA Times.

Some other tidbits from Hector Tobar:

• The war claimed 20 people in 24 hours (as of Friday) across the country.
• The Gulf cartel and the Zetas are fragmenting into smaller, more violent groups (this will continue across the board).
• Classic military breakdown in the face of guerrilla pressure (3 officers and 16 soldiers were ordered detained in the shooting of a funeral party at a checkpoint).

Comments

[Scout006]

This illustrates the political utility of terror as a coercive tool. This has been the primary purpose of terror for several years, whether it is state sponsored, cartel sponsored, Maoist, Al Qaeda, etc. What is amazing is the lack of main stream press coverage this situation receives. We're at war with terrorism (inaccurate description, but none the less we're at war in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere), our Southern border is becoming more and more vulnerable, and Fox Luney Tunes News on Hanity and Holmes covers Paris Hilton for 45 minutes plus. Terrorists don't have to use terror in our country to create operational space, the media has already accomplished that.

[Duncan Kinder]

Perhaps the following soundbite might help draw attention to this situation:

"For more than a generation, the United States has been fighting a 'War on Drugs.' Now drugs are beginning to fight back."

[jesus reyes]

This hemisphere's portion of the international drug trade is at least 300 billion a year. Every dime of this is being laundered by the banking system and invested. The notion that the "state" is at "war" with a handful of thugs is a little ingenuous. It might be that the Gulf Cartel is being taken down so the Sinaloa-Juarez Cartel can take over after which everyone can go back to sleep. We can eliminate the problem by decriminalizing it just any ole we get ready.

[Scout006]

jesus, I'm not sure I would qualify the situation as a handful of thugs, these Cartels seem to be well entrenched, and there network extends beyond Mexico. Perhaps it would be an exaggeration if it was only blue doper versus red doper, but there are relatively large scale attacks directed against the police, which is a direct challenge to the State. Legalizing some of the drugs, such as grass, might reduce the profit, but the criminal enterprise would simply adjust. Human smuggling is already starting to become more profitable than the drug trade. Additionally, tobacco products are not illegal, yet there is a huge tobacco smuggling underworld worldwide (why? I assume to bypass taxes and maximize profit?). Assumng the Sinaloa Cartel wins the turf battle, it may make it easier for the Mexican government to take down the cartel, but I think in the end we'll see a repeat of what happened in Columbia, when they took down Pablo.

[jesus reyes]

That is my point, they are not a handful of thugs. The world wide drug trade is at a very minimum $600b. What does it take to laundry $600b and where does that $600b go? They are very well entrenched. They are entrenched in the equity markets, banking sytems, real estate markets, political systems, intellegence systems. The Gulf Cartel was put together during a drug war in the early 90's under the Salinas PRI administration and now it is being taken down during the Fox/Cardenas PAN administration. The notion that this conflict doesnt originate at the top levels of the political systems buggers the imagination.

[anarchonihilist]

The drug cartels are as legitimate as the US and especially the Mexican central governments. I'm rooting for the GG's because I don't want to live in a police state.
After the real estate bust, deflation and stock market crash, the US will hopefully collapse.

[Scout006]

Jesus, thanks for the clarification, and after reflecting on your post for awhile I think you shed light on an area of the GC movement we haven't discussed much on this site. I'm not very knowledgeable on Mexico, but I don't see an effective anti-corruption campaign in the near future.

Anarchonilist, you either must be a 20 year college kid whose folks are paying your way, or simply just a dumbass who lives in fantasy land. Currently the leading GC movement is affilitated with Al Qaeda, so if you assume that living in a State or Caliphate under Sharia law is preferable to current Western Laws, then by all means please move to the tribal region of Pakistan, or to Taliban controlled Afghanistan, or an Al Qaeda controlled city in Iraq. You'll find your paradise there, and free up more oxygen for the rest of us.

[anarchonihilist]

How childish, Scout006.

[Duncan Kinder]

"We can eliminate the problem by decriminalizing it just any ole we get ready."

That certainly has been true and hopefully still is.

At some point, however, the illicit, drug economy could become so entrenched that it will take ( or has taken ) a life of its own.

After that, the "normalization" of the drug economy will no longer be possible because - for its participants - it would itself be "normal" and our society irregular.

[anarchonihilist]

Over thousands of years, drug use IS normal. The Drug War is what is abnormal and immoral and loses legitimacy for the state by fruitlessly conducting it. And I don't even use drugs, even legal ones.
I think many here refuse to accept the inevitable truth that 4GW will defeat the nation-state. Even John Robb seems more concerned with how to defeat 4G Warriors instead of finding a "tribe" to join.
The future is here.

[Scout006]

anarchonihilist, the tribes already exist as you have stated, but the reality is that they have always co-existed with the nation-state, and probably will for the forseeable future. Your comments on the legalization of drugs are irrelevant in the context used, because we're not talking about drug users, but the criminal organizations that facilitate the use of illegal drugs. I have strong opinions on the whole issue of the State determining what drugs are legal also, but the real issue from a GG point is the criminal organization. The criminal organization is generally (and definitely so in Mexico) a brutal terrorist organization, not a Robin Hood organization. The same is true with many insurgent and terrorist groups around the world. With the exception of few extremists (true believers) the people will reject these tribes and opt for the nation-state, which provides a much higher quality of life and degree of protection that the GG will never be able to offer. You seem to equate victory by the GG (which will not happen) as liberating, instead of equating it to the draconian, ecomonically deprived society it would create for those who feel under its sway. The State isn't perfect, but it is far better than a world ruled by GGs. I'll meet you as far as agreeing that the the GGs will force the State to change/adapt, but it will not be defeated.

[anarchonihilist]

Like the 3GW Germans defeated the 2GW French, wouldn't the next generation usually defeat the previous? The US will surely lose eventually in Iraq, and what happens after that could be interesting: housing crash, deflation, rising unemployment due to no more real estate and defense industry jobs, and returning disgraced soldiers who are inured to shooting civilians.
I'm really more interested in what will happen in the US than in the various world hellholes. The elites don't think it can happen in the US, but I think they'll be surprised, just like they were about the USSR.

[TheDreamer]

"With the exception of few extremists (true believers) the people will reject these tribes and opt for the nation-state, which provides a much higher quality of life and degree of protection that the GG will never be able to offer."

Why is that the case? Wouldn't it be that a tribe is the only thing that can leverage itself properly in this new framework of tribes? Meanwhile, a tribe can easily maintain it's wind generators, even making it a hereditary position or whatever, if we were to revert to more primitive form. I mean I thought one of the whole points of this blog was how the centralization of the nation-state simply cannot protect it's networks..

Meanwhile, it seems to me that these assholes running around the third world are just that assholes. Hopefully the incarnation of GG in america will take on a more noble character, which would be expected considering that it's populous is the top of the empire not the bottom.

As it is, the american revolution often looks like a forerunner of a good global guerrillas, and by that I mean the type of people people actually want in charge. Most of these tribes are still incredibly weak and underdeveloped culturally, instead of having leadership they mostly have just warlords who rise above the other uneducated. As it is people still jockey for position. Once these tribes manage to secure their territory from outside interference, I would expect that they will quickly turn their attention to infrastructure projects on a grander level.

"deflation" why do you think that? I've been pondering that idea for a while and it makes a lot of intrinsic sense, but I cannot really justify it.

[anarchonihilist]

The US now has higher debt than 1929. Every dollar of it must be repaid, by either the borrower or the lender. It's too much for the borrowers, so they will default: foreclosures and bankruptcies. Credit and then demand will dry up. This won't happen until real estate falls, due to foreclosures. Real estate is the key. Of course, the debt could be repaid thru hyperinflation, but that will end the US, just like Wiemar.
I don't agree with all Mish says, but his website is a good place to start:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/