JOURNAL: Open Source War Settles in North America

Mexico's army, due to low salaries ($330 a month) and bad conditions/treatment, already suffers an 8-9% desertion rate -- these deserters are left unpunished due to an inability to pursue, prosecute, and imprison. That rate is is expected to radically increase as the war with narco-guerrillas in northern Mexico heats up. As a hint of what's to come, between 2000 and 2006 (the Vicente Fox administration), of the 4,890 soldiers assigned to Federal police duties, all but 10 deserted (according to IAPA journalist Maria Idalia Gomez).

A Fragmented Opposition

"The Zetas don't ask the Gulf cartel permission for anything anymore. They simply inform them of their activities, whenever they feel like it." US law enforcement official, under condition of anonymity to Alfredo Corchado of the Dallas Morning News.

In contrast to the depletion of the Mexico's military, its non-state opposition is expanding rapidly. The Zetas (originally formed by 50 Mexican special operators, some with US training, recruited by the Gulf Cartel as enforcers) has ballooned to a network of 2000 members, including recruits from Guatemalan counter-insurgency forces called the Kabiles. Also, compared to the low rates of investment by the Mexican military in its recruits, the Zetas (according to US intelligence estimates) spend 50% of their substantial smuggling earnings on training, recruitment, intelligence gathering, and computer software. As a result, its operations have expanded to 24 Mexican states. In Nuevo Laredo alone, a focal point of smuggling, an estimated 200 Zetas with a support system of 300 are in operation.

Another sign of Mexico's decay, has been the arrival of a new paramilitary group called La Gente Nueva ("the new people"). Apparently loyalist (although it could be that this group is more about protection of its cut of smuggling revenue than support for the government), this network is composed of current and former police officers seeking revenge against the Zetas for their slaughter of policemen.

Comments

[HK]

Shouldn't be surprising that specialists go for the money eventually. One might ask where some of the PMCs go once they are done in the Middle East.

[Russell120]

In 2005 the government reported (as good news) that the average income had increased to the equivalent of US$233/month.

"Soldiers are also routinely denied access to rights such as family and medical leave while they are forced to work horrendous hours and humiliated by their superiors, said former Gen. Jose Francisco Gallardo, a military scholar".

from here http://tinyurl.com/yqbnwl

I doubt the 99% desertion rate within the units assigned to fight the cartels is simply a matter of fear. One suspects the assigned troops are treated awfully. The overall army's rate of desertion is "only" 8%.

[Papa Ray]

So how do I think about the Zetas. As a criminal enterprise? They don't act directly against the Mexican government, except in fact that they are criminals, so they are not "insurgents". Do they go around killing innocents? Most likely when they are in the process of commiting crimes. So are they "terrorists"?

Do I really care how I think about them, should I care?

Well, yes, because sooner or later just like other Mexican gangs they will be moving into the U.S. more and more.

Can we stop them? Mexico can't and we don't have the resources either local, state or federal.

The war on drugs has been lost but no one will admit that the U.S. has spent billions (trillions?) over the years and hasn't even made a dent in the drug trade.

Americans have forgotten how to fight to win. Our Military now has to under rules of engagement that any commander in any of our previous wars would not put up with. Our police and border patrol are afraid to fight because they may be fired, charged and do jail time.

As far as the desertion rate within the Mexican Army, I'm sure that as soon as they get a few paychecks they do like the Iraqi army recruits do. Go back home and take care of their family until they are broke again and then go back to their unit. Escept in Iraq they keep their enlistment a secret.

It's a swinging door arrangement from what I read.

BTW, Michael Yon just posted on the new offensive (massive) in Iraq.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

[Cavolonero]

" He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That's the Chicago way! "

[Duncan Kinder]

I would like to draw everyone's attention to the following Oil Drum post about the general strike now taking place in Nigeria and its relationship to the guerrilla activity in the Niger delta:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2687#more

While the main thesis of this article is to distinguish between the strike, which it asserts is a negative feedback loop, and the guerrilla activity, which it asserts is a positive feedback loop, it makes an interesting point about how commodity shortages fuel this positive feedback loop:

quote:

Positive-feedback loop factors, such as the violence in the Niger Delta, won’t go away on their own. They will persist, and they will get worse unless the underlying catalyst of the positive-feedback loop is addressed. In the case of “above ground factors” influencing oil production, the underlying cause is geological peaking—if the world was awash in spare capacity, there would be little incentive to fight over control of oil. Oil Majors would just move to greener fields elsewhere if geology (and the resulting difficulty replacing reserves) didn’t dictate that they stay. I’ve called this phenomenon Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Peak Oil. Geologically-driven scarcity sets the conditions that lead to oil-related violence: the battle over oil revenues in Iraq, the violence in the Niger Delta, the leftist policies of Hugo Chavez, China’s increasingly aggressive policies in Africa, etc.

:end_of_quote

The positive feedback loops this article is discussing appear strongly to resemble the global guerrilla activity John Robb blogs about; while the Peak Oil conditions resemble the commodity shortages and resulting unrest I personally have noted.

If this article is correct, then there is a direct casual link between the two.

This is a Mexican thread (and I have posted this Nigerian topic here because John has slowed down on his posting and the chances of making the point elsewhere seem slim) so it would follow, if the Oil Drum article's thesis is correct, that Mexico's Zeta-type problems also are ultimately fueled by Peak Oil type commodity problems in the Mexican economy. ( And such problems do exist. )

I would differ from the Peak Oil article in one respect. While the strike is indeed a negative - not a positive - feedback loop, it is a consequence of an overall decline in the Nigerian government's prestige. Moreover, settling it would cost the government resources that would sap its ability to deal with the guerrillas. Therefore the strike does relate to the Delta strike, albeit loosely.

[anarchonihilist]

Zetas are freedom fighters compared to the thugs of the federal governments of both Mexico and the US. I'm sure vets from the Iraqi debacle will form groups to market meth. The nation-state is just another gang.

[Cavolonero]

MEXICO CITY, Mexico (AP) -- Mexico temporarily removed all 284 of its top federal police officers from their jobs and is forcing them to prove they will not be corrupted in the fight against drug trafficking, the government announced Monday.

Mexican authorities often have purged police forces in attempts to eliminate corruption, only to see the fired officers go to work full time for organized crime. This is one of the most extreme measures taken yet in hopes of guaranteeing the honesty of high-ranking officers.

[Duncan Kinder]

According to the following Washington Post article, Kenya is developing similar problems:
"Brutal Kenyan Sect Aims to Provoke Strife"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/01/AR2007070101057.html

The article is unclear about the precise nature of this sect but note the following:

* This sect is apparently tribal.
* This sect is apparently not Islamic.
* Kenya nevertheless abuts Somalia.
* There are at least rhetorical links relating it to the Mau Mau.
* According to Transparency International, Kenya is quite corrupt.

*

[Duncan Kinder]

I just came across a reference to Jesus Malverde, Patron 'Saint' of Narco Traffickers. (apparently a widely known topic - which therefore betrays my lack of expertise in this field. )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jes%C3%BAs_Malverde

This is portentous, because it reveals that this alternative form of organization has captured many people's imagination.

In the history of the Chinese Revolution, for example, the Tai Pings asserted a contorted form of Chritianity and - throughout Chinese history - peasant uprisings were associated with heretical Buddhist and Taoist cults.