JOURNAL: How to bait Turkey

The question for global guerrillas operating in Iraq is: how do you bait Turkey to invade Kurdistan? Turkey already has 140,000 troops massed on the border with Kurdistan -- in response to its support of PKK guerrilla attacks within Turkish territory. One mechanism is to heat up attacks on ethnic Turkmen living in Iraq (a social systempunkt of 800,000 people). The early July marketplace car bomb in Emerli, which killed an estimated 210 civilians, was a step in this direction. We can expect more attacks like this in the future. A Turkish invasion of Kurdistan would achieve:

• Political disorder. A massive rift between the US and Turkey. A defacto state of war between Iraq and Turkey. Strong alignment of political goals between the PKK and Kurdistan.
• Factional disintegration in Iraq. The departure/desertion of Kurdish troops from the Iraqi army. Refurbished Kurdish peshmerga are the heart and soul of the Iraqi army (as well as many private military companies).
• Supply and economic disruption. Loss of vital commercial connectivity with Turkey (needed for a huge range of business and supply needs).

It's important to note that blood and guts terrorism, as a method of warfare, works best in three situations (even these applications suffer from diminishing returns):

• The first is to goad a nation-state into over-reaction, particularly against foreign targets.
• The second is to force fractures in social networks along ethnic/religious/linguistic/tribal fault lines.
• The third is to demoralize nation-state militaries and force a rift between them and the population.

Comments

[Bill Moore]

If you at this from a historical context it may not be that big of a deal. The Turks opposed (politically) our military adventure into Iraq for a number of reasons, not the least being the fear that a Kurdistan would provide a safe haven for the PKK, threats to Iraqi Turkoman who were closely aligned with Baath Party, and disruption of oil flow from the Northern Oil Fields. And don't forget the elections and the fact that most Turks did not want to see the U.S. invade Iraq, so no one wanted to sign up for politicide. The Turks were right on all accounts to some degree. Kurdistan already provided a safe haven for PKK, but more so now. The Turkoman were pushed out of key jobs in the Northern Oil Company by Kurds, and yes the oil flow has been disrupted.

The Turks sent in their Special Forces to help the Turkoman, and go after PKK cells, and are probably still doing the same. However, that doesn't make the news, so they have to do something bigger to keep their constituients happy, thus the repeated build up of conventional forces on the border with Iraq (it happens every year). At most I could see a limited incursion, with tacit approval from the Maliki government (although not publicly).

If Kurdistan becomes it own country, then the Iraqi government may even support Turkey invade Kurdistan, along with a lot of other neighbors who are opposed to a Kurdistan. Turkey is important, it is a NATO ally, provides access to key future oil reserves in the Caucasuses, etc., so this isn't an unimportant matter. Turkey may feel less obligated to abide by NATO rules since France and others are making a strong move to keep Turkey out of the EU. The bottom line is there are a lot of ways this could play out.

[bigdan]

Turkey has an extremely weak hand to play. Their economy is dependent upon the supply of oil and transit fees from the Baku, Tblisi, Ceyhan pipe line and the Kirkuk Ceyhan pipeline. The Kurds in Eastern Turkey are already tying up a lot of the Turkish military. Turkey lost their big chance when the US dropped a thousand paratroopers into Northern Iraq.

[Nils Gilman]

Scout006 is right that there are a lot of ways this could play out, but a key to watch will be machinations over how to revisit the Treaty of Lausanne, which marked Turkey's formal abandonment of claims to Mosul. Turkey has already noted that the treaty was enacted with a sovereign Iraq, and if such an entity disappears, then the treaty provisions are void.

But that alone probably wouldn't be enough; there would need to be some sort of "outrage" against the Turkman population of the new state. Or some major uptick in PKK activities being initiated from within the new state. Or something.

One real question is, what country would actually recognize an independent Kurdistan? I have a hard time finding a constituency for such a regime anywhere. And without such formal recognition, it's not clear what the emergence of a "Kurdistan" would mean.

Also note that collaboration with the Iranians in suppressing Kurdistan is a non-trivial possibility.

[londamium]

Bigdan

You really don't have much of a clue.

The transit fees from the pipelines are minimal - when you consider that Turkey's GDP is around $700 billion pa. The transit fees for the BTC will be about $340 million per annum ( about 1/2000th of GDP ) - then again, it's only been open for about 9 months, which begs the question of how Turkey managed to survive, let alone develop its economy until 2006.

There are no transit fees for the Kirkuk pipeline as Turkey is the end user - and is the only export customer. Much of the Iraqi oil that is refined at Ceyhan is sent back to Iraq - so Turkey profits from the value-added component. Then again, it's not entirely clear if the pipeline is currently functioning as it keeps getting blowed up.

In spite of numerous outages in the Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline in recent years, Turkish economic growth has continued apace, which suggests to me that Turkey is not exactly dependent on Iraqi oil. This is hardly surprising - they also get oil from Russia and Iran, both of which share borders with Turkey.

The BTC depends on Turkey, not the other way round, and it's Europe, for which the bulk of the Azeri oil that passes through the pipeline is destined, that is in the position of dependency.

[Russell120]

One would certainly hope that the Turks (along with everyone else) are waiting for us to pull out, and are simply posturing.

However, I do remember someone somewhere pointing out that it is much easier to get into a shooting match when you have military forces in close proximity. It is one of the downsides to having bases all over the place.

[A pround nationalist]

Well let me tell you this, the Turkish government has already stated that the formation of an independant Kurdish state would the an automatic cause for war, so I welcome the day when i'm given the excuse with my brothers in arms to once and for all eradicate this thorn in the side of my nation once and for all. The US could never turn its back on Turkey, it holds to important a statigic location, is the gateway from the east to the west and lets not forget it is undoubtedly the possesor of one of the most powerful militaries on earth. The most that will ever happen is a public condeming. So be it.