JOURNAL: Just-in-time Disruption begins in Mexico

"The order to begin a national campaign of punishing the interests of the oligarchy and this illegitimate government has been put in play.." EPR Web site message after the attacks.

Mexico's Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), a splinter of the original group formed in 96 (in south-west Mexico), blew up a PEMEX 36-inch natural gas pipeline that shut down two auto assembly plants (Nissan/Honda) in Guadalajara. Two other pipelines were shut down (gas and crude oil) affecting the Salamanca oil refinery (domestic production).

The operation was small, and according to the group required eight charges set by small teams in three locations. The charges were set with a time delay (to detonate on the 5th and the 10th in the early morning). Nobody was caught and there were zero casualties. I suspect the returns on investment for the attacks, particularly given their ability to impact just-in-time production facilities, were amazing.

Update: 800 1,200 businesses have been shut down in addition to the gas supply to Guadalajara, Aguascalientes, Querétaro, León y Celaya. The cascade's effects grow...

Update 2: Nissan's Aguascalientes factory produces 1,300 vehicles daily. Honda produces 120 Accord sedans daily. Further, the attack on the natural gas pipeline was on a valve complex (a particularly good systempunkt).

Comments

[enigma_foundry]

If these are just in time facilities yes, quite true.

The next step here will be to booby trap the areas that have been destroyed, so mine clearing has to take place before they are up and running again.

Just a couple of mines, and it will delay the repairs by a week or so.

And they won't even have to mine every time--just often enough to make those who would do the repairs insist on the mine clearing op...

[Cavolonero]

Save your fork, there's mines !

[Duncan Kinder]

The elections in Guatemala are also very interesting:

quote:

JUTIAPA, Guatemala (Reuters) - In towns along Guatemala's drug corridor between El Salvador and Mexico, drug traffickers flush with money see this year's elections as a new way to extend their power.

According to officials and analysts, drug traffickers are supporting candidates ranging from national lawmakers to first timers in politics, particularly for mayorships in eastern districts close to El Salvador and Honduras.

Partly as a result, some 50 people have already been killed in the runup to the September 9 election for president, Congress and mayors across the country.

"In the east there are at least four candidates up to their necks in links to the narcos," said Vice President Eduardo Stein of the ruling center-right GANA coalition, which is expected to lose the presidency.

Gaining political control over towns in key smuggling areas would allow drug gangs more easily to transport Colombian cocaine through Guatemala to Mexico on its way to the United States.

:end_of_quote

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=oddlyEnoughNews&storyID=2007-07-09T180817Z_01_N26365004_RTRIDST_0_LIFESTYLE-GUATEMALA-ELECTION-DRUGS-GENERAL-FEATURE-COL.XML&archived=False

[jesus reyes]

800 businesses have been shut down in addition to the gas supply to Guadalajara, Aguascalientes, Querétaro, León y Celaya.

I think there are two added benefits. The Mexican people get to smirk while listening to Calderon talking about the subversion of the political will while he himself is guilty of on of the largest electoral thefts in history. There is not a mexican alive who doubts this theft or its magnitude.

Secondly, it points to Pemex which is the biggest reason for this electoral theft. The Mexican oligarchy and their US handlers are desperate to privatize Pemex and the overwhelming majority of Mexicans are against this.

[Duncan Kinder]

See, "Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?" on The Oil Drum.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2752#more

[Flagg]

Here's a picture that speaks a thousand words -

http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_hispanic.pdf

Think about how the narcos and a variety of other groups will try to leverage cross-"border" ties when Mexico goes full-tilt 4GW...

[Cavolonero]

Stop !
In the name of drugs ...
Before you make more cars ...

[nykrindc]

I think both the Guatemala story and this attack in Mexico are related. After all, the Mexican government is pushing hard against the drug cartels in the northern part of the country. What better way to draw their attention than to restart a guerrilla campaign (think Colombia) that by all accounts was all but dead. Having the group be a splinter group of a recognized entity gives it added legitimacy to expand and further draw the government away from the drug cartels in the north.

[Duncan Kinder]

Re: Guatemala

quote:

Shadowy Funds for Guatemala Parties

Guatemala, Jul 11 (Prensa Latina) Only three of the 14 political parties registered for Guatemala" presidency have handed over the list of those financing their campaign"s expenses, after the term established by the law expired.

Hermelindo Miaren, Electoral auditor, reported that Encounter for Guatemala, Guatemalan Republican Front and the Patriot Party were the only ones with the papers.

The Electoral Supreme Court"s (TSE) lawyers have to dictate sentences now against those who avoided this requisite, which could be moral and economic, said Hermelindo.

Parties must hand over full identity of their financial partners and total contributions and if they are in cash or in kind, as established by rules.

This detail is very important to provide september"s elections public accountability and avoid the influence of powerful parallel groups or the organized crime in the results.

But TSE cannot impose penal sanc

:end_of_quote

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B7D1FD249-A6C9-412D-AD71-774690D08417%7D)&language=EN

and

quote:

Guatemala Violence Used for Votes

Guatemala, Jul 11 (Prensa Latina) Violence in Guatemala has hit a high point after the call to elections, reported the International Center of Human Rights Investigations (CIDH).

"We have seen with concern the rise of criminal events such as the assassination of drivers, lynchings and kidnap of children and this is not a simple coincidence," denounced CIDH official, Orlando Blanco.

Blanco told Prensa Latina that the rise of these three crimes aims to disturb the people and influence them to vote for the candidates who offer to control delinquency.

"It is obvious that, on the one hand, awareness of violence in the population grows and, on the other, there are candidates with slogans referring to security," denounced the official of the Collective of Social Organizations.

Examining the patterns of these actions, CIDH identified that they coincide with clandestine forces that were active during the armed conflict and that continue to operate.

According to the report of the CIDH, 17 thousand Guatemalans have been violently killed in the past three years. These figures include one thousand 500 women.

The civilian organization warned of the increase of drug trafficking, organized crime and infiltration into the legal system, Attorney General s office and security forces.

:end_of_quote

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B2ED9584C-7D7A-4A88-996D-168EF348EFE7%7D)&language=EN

[Valdis]

I found a map of the MX gas pipeline after a 2 minute Google search.

Point #1) What are these maps still doing online???

Point #2) Guadalajara is at the end of a long stretch in the pipeline -- it is a cul-de-sac. Much line Jane is in this network...

http://www.orgnet.com/sna.html

NOT a good place to put critical factories!

[enigma_foundry]

Valdis:

Point about the map being available:

There are a lot of reasons why maps like this need to be public. Think what would happen if a construction crew accidentally broke one? And given the number of people who would have a reason to know, because they might dig, or because they are first reponders, and the number of people who have access to the information grows exponentially, and I would conclude that the bad guyss are going to find it out anyway.

Oh, and by the way, you left some electronic tracks when you did your google search. If something gets blown up, and you were looking at it, someones going to put you on a watch list, assuming they are actually doing their jobs, that is.

[gmoke]

"According to the Proceso magazine, complementing information first reported by the Dallas Morning News, cartel leaders met last month on a ranch in Tamaulipas and discussed dividing Mexico into zones of control and limiting the violence. Apparently the large number of killings had become bad for business, prompting cartel leaders to take action."

from http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/mexico/entries/2007/07/13/did_mexican_cartels_agree_to_a.html#jump

Jeremy Schwartz is a reporter based in Mexico City.

[a517dogg]

Stratfor just announced a weekly "Mexico Security Memo" to track the kidnappings, corruption, cartel behavior, etc.

[pm2075]

Illegitimacy of the Mexican government!? Wow! It wouldn't be surprising since Orbrador had question certain things about the not ago, recent Presidential elections.

Pop quiz!

What's on the menu today for capitalism in the 21st century?

Your own private war?
A coup? A revolution?
and throw in a guarantee for a win of the Presidential seat...

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexcash17jul17,1,557940.story?coll=la-headlines-world

The answer to 9 out of 10 questions...

[Duncan Kinder]

The Los Angeles Times reports on "Guatemala's shadowy presidential race:
Dirty tricks, a vulgar innuendo and the dark influence of drug money combine to cast a pall over the campaigning."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-guatemala31jul31,1,4155541.story?coll=la-headlines-world
quote:

And many of the parties are secretly receiving money from drug traffickers, according to statements by Guatemalan and U.S. officials. Colom recently expelled dozens of UNE candidates for local office from his party because he suspected they were receiving drug money.

Traffickers are concentrating on funding local candidates, said a U.S. official who asked not to be named. But their money is likely "working its way up" party political structures. "In a certain sense," the official said, "it's impossible to stop."

:end_of quote

[Duncan Kinder]

New York Times:

"Drug Gangs Use Violence to Sway Guatemala Vote"

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/04/world/americas/04guatemala.html?ref=world

[Duncan Kinder]

In this blog, we have often - and appropriately - discussed how the nation-state is in the process of being undermined by various global guerrillas - how it now appears to be disintegrating.

There is another perspective, however, as international and transnational organizations emerge that overshadow the nation state from above.

This is now happening in Guatemala, where government institutions have become so discredited that a United Nations-appointed body of foreign experts, the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala, has been established to buttress its police and justice system:

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=389&sid=1207266

quote:

Guatemala's Congress on Wednesday voted to create a commission of foreign experts to investigate organized crime and police corruption.

The commission, first proposed by the United States, is an attempt by the Central American nation to counteract rampant drug smuggling often aided by officials.

The so-called International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala will be made up of a team of international crime experts who will investigate organized crime and its links with Guatemala's police and government. It will then issue recommendations to authorities.

:end_of_quote