Cut away the public relations fluff and you find that the Petraeus surge is based on the development of an open source counter-insurgency in Sunni Anbar that mirrors earlier efforts in Shiite areas. It is accomplished at the expense of the central government. Here's my thinking when I first wrote about this option back in 2005 for the NYTimes:
Today, 2 years on, stability remains as elusive as ever. As the Russian's demonstrated in Chechnya, will an appointed thug (like Kadyrov, pictured) be the next step?
If an open-source counterinsurgency is the only strategic option left, it is a depressing one. The militias will probably create a situation of controlled chaos that will allow the administration to claim victory and exit the country. They will, however, exact a horrible toll on Iraq and may persist for decades. This is a far cry from spreading democracy in the Middle East.
Today, 2 years on, stability remains as elusive as ever. As the Russian's demonstrated in Chechnya, will an appointed thug (like Kadyrov, pictured) be the next step?
In your book and throughout this blog I've interpreted in your analysis that an open source response is really the only option to an open source guerrilla effect - at least until globalization eliminates globabilization. So it seems Petreaus' approach is the logical one. I wonder if two years on we're as depressed about the end of the democratic reforms when now it seems like a bit of light at the end of a tunnel to bring the boil to a simmer and get the heck out of the kitchen.
Posted by: Paul LaFontaine | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 05:26 AM
You are exactly right. I updated the post.
Posted by: John Robb | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 06:06 AM
Agree on the potential next step. The conversation has already started in the media about 'reformed insurgents' working with American forces so we will probably start seeing a more efforts to create white-hat vs. black-hat guerrillas. White hat will involve some symbolic conversion in the storymaking to give them a media figleaf. On the ground the effects you describe in your work will be taking place.
Posted by: Paul LaFontaine | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 06:30 AM
Hello! I just bought the book and starting to read it. I love it so far.
Uhh...do I put comments like this on here or elsewhere?
Posted by: ccL1 | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 03:42 PM
ccL1, you can comment on any post you find interesting or you can send me an e-mail (see upper right of page).
JR
Posted by: John Robb | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 04:02 PM
The other option would have been to send in 500,000 troops. But that of course was not going to happen because we thought we could win it on the cheap.
The Powell doctrine of using overwhelming force is seeming a little more prescient.
Posted by: Russell120 | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 05:07 PM
Whatever this ' Let the Turkey Get You Down ' idea is interesting. { Let Turkey impose a puppet government on these guys. Turkey does this right you can get in line with the EU ... } We stay in our superbunker. Who loses ? The Kurds ( talk about eating a Kurd sandwhich ) But what else is new. God.
Posted by: Cavolonero | Monday, 16 July 2007 at 10:54 PM