Global Guerrillas

JOURNAL: Child Soldiers and Brigandage

Insight into Iraq by Bill Lind:

As we have seen in Africa, when children become fighters at an early age, they provide a pool of men who for at least a generation cannot do anything but fight. It is difficult to "de-program" them into peaceful citizens. In turn, this leads to what we might call "supply-side war," war driven largely by the presence of men who want to fight. This kind of half-war, half-brigandage swarmed over Europe during the interval between the end of the Middle Ages and the rise of the state. After Westphalia, the state put an end to it by rounding up the brigands and hanging them. In Iraq, where the fictional state cannot even round up kilowatts, supply-side war suggests that disorder will be rampant, and a state non-existent, for quite some time.

JOURNAL: Complete Fragmentation

Iraqi security forces in Karbala, unable to control violence between the Badr brigades and the Madhi army, ordered one million pilgrims to leave the city. If you thought a Sunni/Shiite civil war was the end game or a grand coalition that enforces a soft partition is the answer, think again.

NOTE: As I point out in Brave New War: in a post-state global system, newly emergent loyalties (to groups other than the state) don't cling to simple formulas of religion or ethnicity. Instead, it's a race to the bottom to find the most successful unit that meets the needs of the participants. Richard Feynman's famous quip, "there is plenty of room at the bottom," is in reference to the potential of nanotechnology. The same could be said about is the size of a group that represents an autonomous unit -- in that it can defend its interests -- in the globalized environment. We haven't found the bottom yet.

JOURNAL: A Spectrum of Security

Here's an example (that ties into the fires in Greece below): a story in the NYTimes, August 28, by William Yardley called, "Wealthy Get Extra Shield for Wildfires."

Security has always been a function of money and location, but we could always assume a base level of security from the government. That appears to be evaporating (as with Katrina, where private military contractors were flown in to protect the homes of the wealthy). As a result, security is now being built into the global systems that support the wealthy that jet between lily pads -- with a new emphasis on protection from black swans (unexpected disasters). As this matures, the market for security services will soon match (and likely exceed) the rapidly widening spectrum of care we currently see in health services. Granted, it's the free market at work, but this system locks in critical but scarce services for those that can pay a premium in advance. The antidote for the rest of us? A resilient community -- collective self help.

GREEK FIRE

Greece may be under assault, with fires burning in over half of the country. The vast majority of blazes were likely set deliberately (the Prime Minister is already claiming this), given the geographical breadth and the number of new events. For example, over a 24 hour period 200 new fires were started across the country. The timing of these attacks could not have been worse (or selected with more care): a heatwave, a dry winter, strong winds, and lots of fuel have combined to make these fires deadly.

What is even more troubling, according to my Greek sources, is that most of the fires have been set around the country's biggest electricity plants. So the potential for a cascading cycle of damage, where the fires knock out electricity production which in turn hampers relief is in the offing. If this is true, on the cheap systems disruption on a strategic scale may have made it's debut in a modern country. The ROIs on this attack are going to be amazing and it looks like the loss in legitimacy the current government is suffering will decide the upcoming election.

JOURNAL: LTC John Nagl on Jon Stewart

Counterinsurgency goes mainstream. Here's the link to the interview. He does a great job. It was also effective in that it drove sales of the Counterinsurgency Field Manual to the top 100 on Amazon.

NOTE: Wow, the Petraeus information operations media machine is amazing (and this is a great example). Nod of respect to the masterful way in which the Petraeus team has been able to influence the public's perception of this war -- the essence of which was a shift towards marketing the military leadership in Iraq as both competent and brilliant.

JOURNAL: When Bots Attack

My short format infographic -- on how open source networks of criminals and hackers can be slaved to state-vs-state conflict -- is in the most recent edition of Wired magazine. Here's a low rez version of the graphic ("When Bots Attack") on their site. In this case China's 300,000 strong hacker networks are utilized.

JOURNAL: The Global Superinfrastructure

Simple definition: The globally interconnected network of physical systems that underlie and enable modern life. In addition to man made systems, Stewart Brand suggested that I add biological systems to this term. Not a bad idea. Extensions, revisions, alternatives? Please note them below in the comments.

JOURNAL: No focus on potential Black Swans?

The torrential spread of a new pig virus in China is made more dangerous due to a lack of information we currently have on the epidemic. This is yet another demonstration of the misalignment between our expensive national security system and our needs (as its customer$).

Of course, for those of us that understand that the likelihood that the government's cavalry will arrive to save the day is nearing zero (in response to the full spectrum of threats), this will come as no surprise.

NOTE: The Coming Urban Terror

City Journal posted my article entitled,"The Coming Urban Terror."

The start of the article:

For the first time in history, announced researchers this May, a majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments. Cities—efficient hubs connecting international flows of people, energy, communications, and capital—are thriving in our global economy as never before. However, the same factors that make cities hubs of globalization also make them vulnerable to small-group terror and violence.

The conclusion:

Our choice is simple: we can rely exclusively on our current security systems to stop the threats—and suffer the consequences when they don’t—or we can take measures to mitigate the impact of these threats by exerting local control over essential services.

JOURNAL: Catalogue the World?

Google maps has an interesting new open source job called the "Google Business Referral Representative."