JOURNAL: Complete Fragmentation

Iraqi security forces in Karbala, unable to control violence between the Badr brigades and the Madhi army, ordered one million pilgrims to leave the city. If you thought a Sunni/Shiite civil war was the end game or a grand coalition that enforces a soft partition is the answer, think again.

NOTE: As I point out in Brave New War: in a post-state global system, newly emergent loyalties (to groups other than the state) don't cling to simple formulas of religion or ethnicity. Instead, it's a race to the bottom to find the most successful unit that meets the needs of the participants. Richard Feynman's famous quip, "there is plenty of room at the bottom," is in reference to the potential of nanotechnology. The same could be said about is the size of a group that represents an autonomous unit -- in that it can defend its interests -- in the globalized environment. We haven't found the bottom yet.

Comments

[Cavolonero]

Rule of nine ? ( Who came up with that ? The navy ? )

[adam]

John,

No question about it, Karbala is a bloody mess today. Over 50 dead and 200 wounded in fighting between the rival factions. The identification of the factions was by Reuters, so its hard to say that its certain. The Mahdi army was stood down for the period of The Surge (TM) so if its actually involved in fighting this is a significant change. It means that the Sadrists think that The Surge is effectively over.

As you note there are 1 million pilgrims in Karbala, mostly Iraqis but with lots of Iranians, for the birthday of the 12th Imam. Its the pilgrims that are important in the whole story. Currently SCIRI control Karbala, and the donations and hotel fees are worth millions. If each traveller drops $100 then that makes Karbala worth more than Las Vegas in local terms. Forget the oil revenues, this is real money. It might be that the Sadrists attempted to take over the hotels and shrine to get into this business.

Now here the situation gets interesting. The US military, at the time of The Surge, cannot provide forces to cover one of the most important religious ceremonies in Iraq, when we all know that religious ceremonies and institutions have regularly been hit by the insurgency. For that matter neither can the Shi'ite Iraqi government. There is no mention of troops in the story, merely police. In Iraq SCIRI control a large chunk of the police. In other words SCIRI may have been attacked and successfully defended their "turf".

As you note the South of Iraq is becoming increasingly unstable as the Iraqi nationalist Sadrists prepare for the next stage of the fighting against the broadly pro-Iranian SCIRI. We're heading into the end-game period now, with the start of the post-revolutionary reign of terror, at the end of it will almost certainly be a new Shi'ite Islamic republic, whether it is pro-Iranian or not is another matter entirely.