JOURNAL: Danger Signs in Shiite Country
Photos of the funeral processions in Sadr City after a recent US air-strike presage analysis from 4GW's Bill Lind:
If we replace a war against Iraqis Sunnis with a war against the Shiites, we will not only have suffered a serious, self-inflicted operational defeat, we will endanger our whole position in Iraq, since our supply lines mostly run through Shiite country. I say such a defeat would be self-inflicted because Shiite attacks on Americans in Baghdad seem to be responses to American actions.
In dealing with the Shiites, we appear to be doing what spurred the growth of the Sunni insurgency, i.e., raids, air strikes and a "kill or capture" policy directed against local Shiite leaders. Not only does this lead to retaliation, it also fractures Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army as he tries to avoid fighting us. Such fracturing works against, not for, the potential re-creation of an Iraqi state.
"General Odierno blamed not his own actions but Iran for the rise in Shiite attacks on Americans".
Was it not Odierno's 4th Infantry Division who prosecuted the knock-down the door mass roundups that filled up Abu Gribal beyond the bursting point? Sounds like more stellar counter-insurgency work on his part.
Posted by: Russell120 | Friday, 10 August 2007 at 03:38 PM
Sort of along the same lines:
From NYT:
British Criticize Air Attacks in Afghan Region
http://preview.tinyurl.com/245xha
William Lind recently was asking why we were bombing Iraqi Railroad Stations.
Posted by: Russell120 | Saturday, 11 August 2007 at 12:30 AM
Pretty prescient, considering the news today about al-Sadr's moratorium. But read Juan cole about Rubin's warning.
Looks like the marketing of the air war against Iran jumps up a notch beginning next week.
Better go gas up the car.
Posted by: Kevin Hayden | Thursday, 30 August 2007 at 11:56 PM