TRIBAL SECURITY "CONTRACTORS"

In Iraq, the long term trend towards the privatization of warfare has finally reached the dregs of this war's long tail: Sunni tribal militias are quickly being formed, blessed with US military "contractor" status, and awarded with a set of golden handcuffs. For those of you that were paying close attention, this shouldn't come as a surprise. It was the inevitable result of the Iraqi military's inability to reduce the influence of primary loyalties (a loyalty to anything but the state) in its ranks and of the US (or any other modern state) to do anything but play with warfare at the margins.

The advantages of these new participants over uniformed the Iraqi military include (see the brief "Loyalist Paramilitaries" for more):

• Legitimacy and loyalty. Unlike the uniformed Iraqi forces, militias draw on tribal, ethnic, and religious loyalties. Close knit units can be formed on the basis on long-standing relationships. This increases their ability to fight.
• Rapid ramp-up. These militias require little formal training. They can quickly leverage existing relationships and lines of loyalty to build units.
• Effectiveness. Decentralized militias have a record of effectiveness. They innovate rapidly and can draw on the same sources of strength available to global guerrillas. They also can take measures the uniformed militaries aren't allowed to.

If this is handled correctly, these new Sunni "contractors" will extend controlled chaos in the most difficult parts of Iraq -- perhaps for as long as 12 months. However, that benefit will inevitably fade as US strategies/personnel change, bought loyalties shift, and disputes erupt (likely over corruption and wholesale murder/torture). The primary effects generated by this decision include:

• Loss of legitimacy for the Iraqi state. The establishment of every new "contractor" will be at the expense of the Iraqi state's (or any state's) primary claim to legitimacy: a monopoly of force.
• A new "supercharged" criminal strata. Expect these contractors to quickly expand their operations into criminal enterprise to increase their profits. This will be made all the worse because these units will be able to use the US as enforcers.
• More Warlords. Think Somalia...

Comments

[Duncan Kinder]

Re: "Loss of legitimacy for the Iraqi state. The establishment of every new 'contractor' will be at the expense of the Iraqi state's (or any state's) primary claim to legitimacy: a monopoly of force."

Another basis for legitimacy is control of the currency, which gives rise to the question of what Iraqi's shall use for currency. Gold? Dollars?

[The Buffalo In Da' Midst]

The 'new "supercharged" criminal strata' pre-existed.

You are speaking of the same people who looted the national museum in Baghdad, leaving the fakes and taking the real antiquities according to the curator at the time of the invasion, and observed operating in plain sight by the world media.

[...]
Saddam Hussein's power had collapsed and the newly arrived US-led coalition forces were unable to prevent a crime against history.

Professional smugglers connected to the international antiquities mafia managed to break some of the sealed doors of the Baghdad Museum storage rooms.

They looted priceless artefacts such as the museum's entire collection of cylindrical seals and large numbers of Assyrian ivory carvings.
[...]
In Full @ BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4461755.stm

[The Buffalo In Da' Midst]

I forgot one:
In Iraq’s four-year looting frenzy, the allies have become the vandals - Guardian UK

"Hussaini confirmed a report two years ago by John Curtis, of the British Museum, on America’s conversion of Nebuchadnezzar’s great city of Babylon into the hanging gardens of Halliburton.

This meant a 150-hectare camp for 2,000 troops.

In the process the 2,500-year-old brick pavement to the Ishtar Gate was smashed by tanks and the gate itself damaged. The archaeology-rich subsoil was bulldozed to fill sandbags, and large areas covered in compacted gravel for helipads and car parks. Babylon is being rendered archaeologically barren.”

...And an interview with Iraqi ex museum director Donny George who fled to Syria shortly after the 2003 invasion by ‘Coalition’ forces."

http://leighm.net/wp/2007/06/09/collude2pillage_guk/

[John Robb]

Buffalo, the big difference is that this one will be backed up by US firepower.