JOURNAL: Tibet and beyond

Tibet is proving to be much more than a flash of unrest in a remote Chinese province. It may be the trigger for much greater dislocation and disruption (from "When China Derails"):

So, what happens when China's high performance, globally connected capitalist economy which is flying at dangerously high speeds hits the inevitable speed bump? The answer is: it will derail (hollow out and fragment). The chaos it will produce in SE Asia is the real threat we have to deal with. Predicting the black swan that kicks off the death spiral is impossible... In anticipation of this, the Chinese government is following the lead of many other nations by radically improving the capabilities of its paramilitary force for domestic security (to the tune of one million men). However, this many not be enough. Global guerrilla theory indicates that endemic corruption will combine with the same forces of anti-state guerrilla action we have seen in other places to disconnect portions of China from the central government.

Comments

[gmoke]

Tibet is only one of the many possible separatist movements that China has to deal with. If Tibet goes, there are a number of other people who will learn by example. Remember, there are definable differences between Northern and Southern Han Chinese and the Empire has previously been divided along those lines. Also remember that inter-Asian racism (or prejudice if you prefer) is at least as endemic as black/white racism is in the USA.

One further point is that rampant environmental degradation may be another trigger for public discontent and systems failure as it was in the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

[Duncan Kinder]

If and when China should derail ( I think it will in the intermediate future ), effects on the US financial and political system will be substantial. Without Chinese purchasers, the US Treasury would have far greater difficulty selling its bonds.

By way of historical parallel, the United States' 1929 stock market crash devastated the Wiemar Republic's economy and helped propel Hitler to power:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Plan

quote:

The Young Plan was a program for settlement of German reparations debts after World War I. It was presented by the committee headed (1929-30) by American Owen D. Young. After the Dawes Plan was put into operation (1924), it became apparent that Germany could not meet the huge annual payments, especially over an indefinite period of time.
....
Between agreement and adoption of the plan came the Wall Street Crash of 1929, of which the main consequences were twofold. The American Banking system had to recall money from Europe and cancel the credits that made possible the Young Plan. Moreover, the downfall of imports and exports affected the rest of the world. By 1933, almost two-thirds of world trade had vanished. A new trade policy was set with the Hawley-Smoot custom duty. The latter was influenced by nationalism and the adopted economic policy. Unemployment soared to 33.7% in 1931 in Germany, and 40% in 1932.
....
This agreement had been preceded by bitter diplomatic struggles, and its acceptance aroused nationalist passions and resentment. It also weakened, rather than helped the advocates of a policy of international understanding.
....
Although the Young plan had effectively reduced Germany's obligations, it was opposed by parts of the political spectrum in Germany. Conservative groups had been most outspoken in opposition to reparations and seized on opposition to the Young Plan as an issue. A coalition was formed of various conservative groups under the leadership of Alfred Hugenberg, the head of the German National People's Party. One of the groups that joined this coalition was Adolf Hitler and the National Socialist German Workers Party, a group which had previously been dismissed as an extremist fringe by the more mainstream conservative parties.
....
While the Liberty Law was not enacted in 1929, the campaign for it was a major factor in bringing Hitler and the Nazis into the political mainstream. Following the defeat, Hitler denounced Hugenberg and said the loss was a result of his poor leadership. Hugenberg and many other conservatives soon found themselves being eclipsed by the Nazis. Hitler would later enact by decree most of the proposals of the Liberty Law after achieving power.

:end_of_quote

[Will]

I think, hope, you're too pessimistic (or perhaps optimistic depending on your desired outcome). I suspect China is more resilient than your scenario suggests. Will be interesting to watch and see.

My optimism comes from a reading of The Second World and a couple other sources describing China's alternative path to development (alternative to the "Washington consensus" that is).

[TheDreamer]

Safe to say that we can expect the unrest to more north into the muslim western frontiers on china as al qaeda seeks to provoke the last of the major powers into the middle east?

This area is more likely far more problematic, as the coast seeks to keep the frontiers under control. Bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan China becomes the easiest target on the planet, massive uncontrolled border. In fact, if I were them I would have been shifting resources to china for the past few months now. On top of this, there is little in the way of the Dali Lama in those regions to express distaste for violence. That violence is even occurring in Tibet strikes me as some level of proof of lack of human development in concert with the industrial colonization of Tibet by China, as violent opposition has continually been disavowed by the Lama