JOURNAL: Tibet, Protests, and Insurgency

[The torch relay is] “really giving a focus to groups like ours around the world for the next three months.” Paul Bourke, an officer with the Australian Tibet Council to the NYTimes.

A global pro-Tibet protest movement has emerged. Its main focus is to protest the route of the Olympic torch as it makes its way to Beijing. An ancillary focus has been on the corporate sponsors of the torch relay (Coca-Cola and Samsung), although the pressure applied to date has been tepid.

The pro-Tibet movement/protest still isn't an open source insurgency since it is still too amorphous. For example, while the enemy (the Chinese government) is clear, the goal (to coerce China into easing its crackdown on Tibet) needs substantial refinement since it is too narrow. If it was more expansive, it could attract participants like the Falun Gong and other dissident groups. Worse, there still hasn't been a clear demonstration of the potential for success for any possible goal. If the movement continues on its current path, it will dissipate by the end of the spring.

This could change very quickly though. A single subgroup's actions could recast this movement/protest into a powerful global insurgency if it provides a clear high level goal and a globally recognized demonstration of effective action (think social systempunkts).

Comments

[tim302]

For people who want to see more coverage, the China Digital Times is an excellent website.
http://chinadigitaltimes.net/

As to Tibet, I agree that unless the Tibetans can draw a wider audience they are not going to make it. I disagree that Falun Gong would be sufficient, because they are in many ways a cult organization and viewed as such by many Han Chinese.

Stepping back for a moment, the Dalai Lama has reiterated that he does not want independence for Tibet, only autonomy. He is defining autonomy as the freedom of Tibetans to pick their own leaders and maintain their religious traditions. However, the Beijing government cannot honor this for several reasons-- destruction of their legitimacy and the rise of regionalism.

The current government in Beijing maintains that it is Marxist-Leninist-Maoist in philosophy. Marxism is a jealous faith that recognizes no legitimate competitors. Already the alleged Communist basis of the government is in question, since they have in many ways embraced a market economy. Were the Beijing government to allow the Tibetans to elect religious leadership as their rulers (or a secular leadership that nonetheless rested on Buddhism as their shared moral and ethical value) it would raise an enormous contradiction between Tibet and the stated ruling philosophy of China. It's a non-starter.

Also, if the Chinese government were to give Tibet the power to elect it's own leaders, certainly there would be a call from the other provinces for the same privileges. For example, Guangdong, which is very distant from Beijing. One could argue that China already has a section where the citizens are allowed to pick their leaders-- Hong Kong. However, HK is different from Tibet because it had the LegCo and the other democratic institutions introduced (at the last minute!) by the British. When HK returned to Chinese rule, it already had a nascent democracy. On the other hand, Tibet would be an example of an existing region of China that had successfully agitated for democracy. This would definitely set a precedent that could end up in many other provinces trying to gain their own regional autonomy. If enough provinces gained regional democratic autonomy, it would eventually raise the question of why the national government of China was still a dictatorship.

Going back to the issue of how the pro-Tibet movement can widen its audience, then the answer is clear. The pro-Tibetan movement must advocate for a wider Chinese democracy. A democratic China that respected religions other than Marx-Lenin-Mao thought, would be able to treat Tibet as a state of the union, so to speak, with no objections. Only in a that framework could Tibetans be free to choose their own leadership while still being part of the sovereign entity of China.

There is also a strong argument that the pattern of social unrest in China is driven by the fact that the government lacks accountability. Whether it's the anti-maglev protests in Shanghai, anti-chemical plant protests in Xiamen or a random rural protest against corrupt officials, it is the same problem-- a non accountable Chinese government.

Whether the pro-Tibet movement can successfully link its struggle to the wider struggle remains to be seen. There is apparently a wide streak of anti-Han racism at work in Tibet, and I wonder if people can overcome that.

[Will]

"The pro-Tibet movement/protest still isn't an open source insurgency since it is still too amorphous."

This is not likely to become an open-source insurgency. Most such protests will not follow such a path.

There are many alternatives to open-source insurgency. Most will use such alternatives. This path is not the solution to, or cause of, all the world's problems. It is, however, an interesting option.

The Chinese do have alternative forms of relating to regions such as Tibet. There is a distinct possibility that a looser for of relationship will be used in the future. Tibet, however, is not likely to go independent.

The latest I've read indicates that two out of three inhabitants of the capital are Chinese, not Tibetan. That ratio, across the region, increases daily.

[John Robb]

Thanks Tim. I wouldn't think in terms of gaining acceptance from the Chinese government, but rather radically increasing the costs of continuing on the current path.

Will, not quite sure what you are getting at here. Standard forms of protest have become much less effective of the past decades. Open source insurgency offers a methodology that can achieve results.

[Duncan Kinder]

One aspect of the Tibetan struggle is that the Dali Lama is now based outside Tibet. This gives new meaning to the idea of separation of church and state. The moral focus of Tibet; its geographical focus; and its political focus are becoming distinct.

Similar moral foci would be the Vatican and Mount Athos, the spiritual center of Eastern Orthodoxy. ( The Brothers Karamazov illustrates how Athos has influenced Russia, for example. )

Such foci would become important in delivering social services in a post-national world - assuming that something other than Hobbesian scenarios are viable.

[gmoke]

Well, already Angela Merkel has said no to a visit to the opening ceremonies and today there were a number of pro-Tibet demonstrators in front of the MA State House.

I'm hoping that the Dalai Lama is smart enough to start a non-violent open source insurgency. I wonder if they are reading Robert Helvey or in contact with the Albert Einstein Institution in Dharamsala and Lhasa.

[Z]

I'm curious. Does anyone believe a similar protest could happen here in the U.S.? For example, 20-30 years from now does anyone envision Mexican Americans of the south western U.S. initiating a mass protest with the goal of secession in mind?

Do Europeans see any possibility of violent protest as in France 2 years ago in Arab quarters? Or Spain in the Basque areas? French vs Flemish Belgium? England vs Scottland? Have they ever considered the "glass house" analogy?

Does anyone anticipate Western governments moving from tsk tsking China to a realization they are in the same boat? I suspect such a realization will only come when they suspect their own power structures are vulnerable.

None of this is to degrade the Tibetan protesters.

[tim302]

John,

You're welcome. When I was talking about a democratic China, I meant a change in government. That is, the plausible premise of any open source insurgency in China would be "to change the government to democracy." I doubt the current Chinese government would go quietly-- there are too many people with too much blood on their hands. The method would, as you say, be to increase the costs to the Chinese government. People still remember what happened in 1989, and they'll want justice. It wasn't just intellectuals and students killed on that terrible day in June. The students had the support of many factory workers as well-- they marched too. The entire city turned out to support the protesters-- burning bus barricades to try and stop the tanks. You can't tell me that 20 years ago people fought pitched battles in the street, and today no one remembers. Bullshit. People remember. They just don't want to talk about it to foreign reporters and end up getting a visit from the police.

As far as dramatically increasing the costs to the current government, I think that's well under way. There have already been flash mob style protests. In one case, a young woman was raped by local officials in a hotel. The woman's classmates used text messages to get people to converge on the hotel, which was eventually burned. I saw the footage on youtube-- looked like it was taken with a camera phone. That's just one example. There have also been group flash mob bulk purchases. People get together on a web forum to buy , for example, furniture. Then they show up (think dozens) at a furniture store and demand to be given special deals on the furniture, or they'll go to the furniture store down the road. It's not a far leap from this kind of behavior to something quite a bit more disruptive.

I think there's a strong possibility of stigmergic learning here, since apparently protests are afoot in Xinjiang among the Muslim minority as well.

Despite what I think, I doubt that there will be any plausible premise floated along the lines I mentioned above. Seems like the entrenched resentment is too much. There has been quite a big of anti-Han sentiment in Lhasa for years. Even several years ago, Han Chinese tourists didn't feel safe venturing out alone after dark to some areas of the city.

As far as points of leverage, I'd guess anything to do with China's ability to bring in foreign currency. Causing the government to lose face might actually be effective at goading them into an overreaction. Face is a very big deal to the leadership. Things are very sensitive right now with regards to the Olympics.

Z,
Doubtful in the Southwest, unless DHS starts raiding Mexican American homes to search for pictures of the pope, and beating the local padres.

[tim302]

Sorry John, that "You can't tell me" referred to clueless reporters, and not to you.

[WarLord]

Greetings

No sure if its "open" but news today of Tibet protests in London during the Torch Relay