DIY (do-it-yourself) WEAPONS

This is a follow up to an earlier brief on DIY Rockets and aircraft.

In the 20th Century, guerrilla warfare was a derivative of state vs. state conflict largely due to the dependence of guerrilla groups on nation-states for weapons (or, more accurately, the manufacturing capability necessary to make them). That dependency is rapidly declining as:

• Vast quantities of mothballed Cold War hardware continues to find new uses.
  
• Grey market manufacturing becomes increasingly available (down to low-cost knock-offs) from a growing number of sources in a hyper-competitive global marketplace.
  
• DIY (do-it-yourself) weapons, built from scratch using off the shelf parts/knowledge/tools and produced in quantity through cottage industry at low cost, emerge (IEDs, Qassam Rockets, Storm worm, etc.).

DIY Weapons
My first exposure to a muscular DIY systems was in the early 80's while working on a 1.5 meter rocket with a solid fuel engine (a shaped version of the same fuel used in the Minuteman ICBM). For one of the launches I built a disc camera system with a wireless servo attachment. It took great pictures. There's been LOTs of progress since then, so much more is possible on a shoestring budget. As a result, these systems offer the most headroom for improvements in lethality or effectiveness (which is a constantly moving target), is in weapons built by individuals or small groups using globally accessible knowledge, resources, and tools. In short: DIY weapons. Unfortunately, DIY weapons and the organizational processes necessary to take advantage of it have been vastly accelerated by the catalyst of Iraq. While 9/11 was also a catalyst, however, it is better seen as an anomalous outlier (an early warning of what was possible) since it occurred years before the changes necessary to enable small groups to fight nation-states evolved. Regardless, DIY weapons are now a major factor on the global battlefield, made worse by an ability to improve at rates 20 times faster than what we saw with groups of similar size late in the last century.

WIM (what it means)
We can expect to see these weapons become dominant (in use) in the next decade as they branch out into new areas and begin to take advantage of newly emerging capabilities. For example: personal fabrication that can churn out rockets/UAVs with tight form factors and customized/integrated flight systems -- or -- bioengineered pathogens that use commonly available materials, university sequencing/design software, widely available skills, and labs on a chip. The only limiting factor are the imaginations of the world's guerrilla entrepreneurs. In combination with systems disruption and increases in lethality, the sky's the limit.

NOTE: In contrast, the big defense contractors will find themselves focused increasingly on developing anti-weapons to counter innovations in the DIY space. Not sure they will be flexible enough to pull it off.

Comments

[author_planetheidi]

DIY or die has been around a long time. Just off the top of my head - Molotov cocktails and Nununchaku. Or do you not count DIY weapons that existed pre-global guerrillas?

[John Robb]

Sure. The big difference is that the underlying tech is accelerating at an exponential rate. Eventually, we'll see DIY biotech that have extraordinary lethality.

[Doc Val]

Do it yourself bioweapons: Suicide bombers. They're also smart weapons (or incredibly stupid ones). The question for this one is: do briefcase nukes exist yet and what does that mean for our enemies considering Iran is wading into the nuclear scene? More importantly: what does it mean for us?

A simpler bioweapon of this type , is of course, a single human with a communicable disease such as smallpox or the plague can become a serious threat in a densely populated city such as New York or L.A. Remember the Millennium Virus concept?

Ever since Kamakaze was used as a mass-warfare tactic, suicide has become an increasingly acceptable form of defiance and retaliation as long as the one killing themselves take the enemy with them. While Al Qaeda isn't as honorable as the Japanese (at least they wore their nation's colors when doing this), the concept hasn't changed.

The Do it yourself weapon is easy for anyone, and anyone who remembers Columbine knows it. It takes only a few hours and some resources to put together an arsenal that can be used to retaliate in the event of foreign invasion (no I have not made one) or terrorist attack.

[moon]

Regarding your closing "NOTE:", wouldn't the DIYers be the ones developing the DIY anti-weapons? (I haven't heard that term before; would you link or define it? Is it synonymous with countermeasure?)

[threatsys]

Not many people have written about the uncontrollable wave of spime weapons that's coming soon. Spime is a Sterling-coined word referring to CAD/CAM produced objects.

We're going to be seeing CAD/CAM sten guns and AKs within five years, in large numbers. Gas-powered dart guns, the obvious but unmentionable weapons possible with cheap modification of toy drones. Sonic weapons and the new toybox of less-lethal weapons are all coming to a workshop near you.

And the plans will all be open-source. The monopoly that nationstates have had upon toys is soon coming to an end.

[mi]

"That dependency is rapidly declining..."

I'm not sure if it is more "DIY" limitations favorable to states than a dependency issue.
The Yasins are inherently flawed compared to the Iglas in terms of accuracy. Let's face it
some areas associated w/ mil. tech transfer and/or know-how are basically off limits to
secondary or even tertiary proponents ie. satellites, nuclear, air-borne early warnings systems etc.

P.