JOURNAL: GG Progress

With a partial US withdrawal from Iraq likely for next spring, the factions in Iraq are relatively quiet, building strength for the battles to come. There are lots of bloody scores to settle (is there a Maliki dead pool online?). Meanwhile, global guerrillas (the open source, system disrupting, crime fueled sons of globalization) are making progress in both Nigeria and Mexico.

Mexico:

Simply, Mexico is in a guerrilla war and the majority (54%, in a recent Reforma poll) of the population thinks the narco-guerrillas are winning. Last month, the guerrillas decimated the senior staff of Mexico's law enforcement organizations and there are threats of more assassinations to come. In small towns, policemen are resigning en masse as the drug gangs continue their killing spree. Placards and banners are openly displayed in town streets promising death to the police that oppose the drug gangs and/or offers to recruit anybody with military experience.

Calderon's effort to crush the syndicates has backfired. As the top leadership of the syndicates were arrested or killed, a myriad of smaller and more violent groups have emerged to replace them (as predicted by global guerrilla theory). Currently, the groups are fighting each other more than the government, which has reduced their effectiveness. That will slowly change as territories are become fixed, connected to the primary loyalties of village or neighborhood. Eventually, a fully formed open source insurgency will emerge and the government might find itself only in command of the capital. At that point, Mexico will be a hollow state. A government in name only. This is going to be interesting to watch.

NOTE: The only existential threat the US faces in the near term, is from global guerrillas in Mexico and not the Middle East. A breakdown there could result in massive population movements, refugee centers, and the spread of guerrilla warfare into US border states.

Nigeria:

A world away, Nigerian guerrillas under the banner of MEND (an organizational shell that serves at the mouthpiece/catalyst for Nigeria's open source insurgency) has rapidly ramped up its attacks on the country's oil system (and particularly Shell Oil). As anticipated, Henry Okah has been quickly replaced. Oil workers are being killed and oil flow stations are being damage at the highest sustained rate to date. These attacks have helped keep oil prices at record levels. Ominously, the guerrillas have expanded their operations to include electricity disruption. As pressure continues to mount on Nigeria's government, we are likely to see broad-based unrest as other groups, spawned by widespread deprivation, begin to take up arms. At that point, oil production from Nigeria, except for bunkering, will completely cease (due to the lack of a viable counter-party to purchase the oil from and a total breakdown in oil worker security).

Comments

[rick]

Interesting. The power of both insurgencies is based on OUR dependencies. In Nigeria, obviously, our dependence on oil is the source, and there's no easy political/economic fix in sight, unless, as you've suggested, we adopt microgeneration. Optimistic support for your position from England:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/02/
renewableenergy.alternativeenergy

But, in the case of Mexico, I wonder how fast the insurgency would fail if we legalized drugs? This, I think, is their systempunkt.

[chris23]

Paul wrote:
"As the top leadership of the syndicates were arrested or killed, a myriad of smaller and more violent groups have emerged to replace them (as predicted by global guerrilla theory)."

Would you expand on this or point me to an expository post I may have missed?

Rick, as a neighbor, Mexico would likely be under too much pressure from US interests to allow legalization. But you're right: undermine their funding and that may undermine their power. There's a mighty paradox in the value and status of narcotics and there have been plenty of reasons to suggest that many diverse interests wish to keep them illegal (high ROI, financial transactions are off the books, loyal consumer base, etc...).

[chris23]

Oops, meant John, not Paul (not sure why I had "paul" on the brain... I mean, he was the walrus and all, but...)

[danielet]

EXCUSITE ISRAELI ARABIST ANALYSIS OF IRAQ TRIBES-INSURGENTS INTERACTION

It is ironic that we are finding Israeli Arabists
suffering a loss of credibility because of slanderous
propaganda by the Zionist extremist Bernard Lewis and
promotion of his "Clash of Civilizations" by the
neocons and the Bush Administration. However, there
are quite a number of Israeli students of Arab society
that are probably the world's best, exhibiting
scholarly critical jugement, no matter whehter one
agrees with them or not. A particular example that
struck me is Prof. Amatzia Baram. Prof. Baram wrote an
article "Neo-tribalism in Iraq: Saddam Hussein's
Tribal Policies 1991-96," which I consider a crime not
to have read by any policy maker in the Bush
Administration. Had more at the CIA and in the Bush
administration read it and thought through its
implications, there would have been a lot less blood
needlessly spilled trying to copy IDF tactics in Gaza.
For me, this article particularly ties my thesis about
Saddam's post-war ties to Iran to Saddam's relations
with the Shia tribes in the South after the Shia
Intifada of the 1990s.

Prof. Baram's article appears in INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES vol. 29 pp1-31, 1997.

Since posting sites do not allow posting of full texts and,
since I could find no copy of it available free at any
URL, I would be very glad to send it to anyone
interested because it very much deserves reading and
discussing. Just send me your e-mail address and I'll
send it to you as a PDF attachment. There is a lesser
version from the Saban Center by him:\

http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2003/0708iraq_baram.aspx?p=1

Michael Eisenstadt, whom I learned was a student at
Brooklyn College when I was there, is another author
from whose work I have never suffered disappointment,
provoking me to start the "Ain't Never Found an
Eisenstadt Article I Didn't Like" Fan Club, though he
works for a Zionist propaganda mill. Whether one
agrees or not is besides the point. It is scholarly
critical judgment that shines through, characteristic
of Jewish scholarly tradition, and I would hate to see
bias extended to these and many others in reaction to
Lewis. Eisenstadt article on Iraqi tribes is
excellent:

http://usacac.army.mil/CAC/milreview/English/SepOct07/eisenstadtengseptoct07.pdf

Daniel E. Teodoru

PS: Lest anyone think me an enamoured Ziophile, I
offer you a most useful article by a "goy," using
computer modelling to explain the role of the tribes
in the Iraq insurgency.

http://www.firstmonday.org/Issues/issue10_3/mac/

[John Robb]

Daniel. Thanks. If you would be so kind, please send me a copy of everything you find useful.

Sincerely,

JR (e-mail is on the upper right of the site)