Nick Reding: Methland: The Death and Life of an American Small Town
A chronicle of the impact of globalization on small town America.
Misha Glenny: McMafia: A Journey Through the Global Criminal Underworld (Borzoi Books)
This is a detailed backgrounder on the rise of transnational criminal groups in every region of the world. Great read!
Dmitry Orlov: Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
Thought provoking analysis of the Soviet Union's collapse and its implications for the US.
Benerson Little: The Sea Rover's Practice: Pirate Tactics and Techniques, 16301730
Excellent review and analysis of the tactics and social structure of piracy. Separates fact from fiction.
John Arquilla: Our Own Worst Enemy: The Reluctant Transformation of the American Military
Just finished an early review copy (it's available for preorder). Excellent insight into how to revitalize the US military.
- Frans P. Osinga: Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd
The "go to" reference on Boyd's thinking.
The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual
The US military's approach to Maoist Insurgency.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
An excellent book on uncertainty. Nassim's premise is that the big events that shape the world aren't predictable. He provides ways to identify them early.
Frans Osinga: Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd (Strategy and History Series)
An essential resource on Boyd's theory of warfare.
Mike Davis: Buda's Wagon: A Brief History of the Car Bomb
A micro-history of smart lo-tech weapons that use humans for terminal guidance.
John Robb: Brave New War
The future of global security. Available today!
Robert Young Pelton: Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror
A history of the rise of the modern mercenary industry. The author provides an excellent "feel" for the current personalities and their ambitions.
Fred Charles Iklé: Annihilation from Within: The Ultimate Threat to Nations
The impact of rapidly advancing technological progress on security.
Steven Johnson: Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software
A great overview of emergent intelligence.
Thomas P.M. Barnett: Blueprint for Action : A Future Worth Creating
Can big states survive in rapidly evolving global threat environment?
Chet Richards: Neither Shall the Sword: Conflict in the Years Ahead
Chet makes the argument for privatizing large sections of the US military and turning it into a flexible force that can respond effectively to non-state threats.
ROBERT BUNKER: Networks, Terrorism and Global Insurgency
Excellent collection of writing by some leading thinkers in 21st Century military theory. Use a corporate account to buy it (it's expensive).
Samuel P. Huntington: The CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS AND THE REMAKING OF WORLD ORDER
Excellent overview of why global guerrilla movements are proliferating.
Francis Fukuyama: The End of History and the Last Man
Contains the assumption upon which the US is building nations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Moises Naim: Illicit : How Smugglers, Traffickers and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy
This book details the market mechanism underlying the emergence of global terrorism. It demonstrates, with excellent examples, how non-state threats are growing faster than the ability of states to respond to them. A must read.
Hakim J Hazim: American Realism Revisited : Lethal Minds & Latent Threats
A great way to gain insight into militant cults. Worth the time.
Thomas X. Hammes: The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century
Good discussion of 4th generation warfare (from the perspective of Mao and Ho). Great foundation for further study.
Robert Pape: Dying to Win : The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
Martin Van Creveld: The Rise and Decline of the State
A detailed description of the decline of the state.
Edward Luttwak: Coup D'Etat
A practical handbook on coup d'etat. The state as a machine that can be controlled.
Anonymous: Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror
Makes the case for a broad-based global guerrilla movement.
Thomas P. M. Barnett: The Pentagon's New Map
Excellent overview of the systemic approach to this war. A must read.
George W. Allen: None So Blind: A Personal Account of the Intelligence Failure in Vietnam
Excellent book on the uses and misuses of military intelligence.
PHILIP BOBBITT: The Shield of Achilles
A seminal book on the evolution of the nation-state. A must read. It provides a path for remaking the nation-state into an organization that can survive global system perturbations.
Sean J. A. Edwards: Swarming on the Battlefield: Past, Present, and Future
Excellent overview of swarming tactics across history.
"The early efforts of the group seem extremely crude by modern standards, but within a decade, it was clear that the process that they had initiated was remaking the world.
"A similar tinkering process is now underway in micro-manufacturing."
In _Reinventing Collapse_, Dmitry Orlov criticizes what he calls the "Goddess of Technology," which he characterizes as an American belief that technological fixes will cure what he perceives as systemic problems leading to a collapse of the American Empire analogous to the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
This tinkering process appears to be further worship of the "Goddess of Technology." As such, it appears to be inconsistent Orlov's thesis.
Accordingly, we would have to begin with the idea that either Orlov is correct, in which event we can discount this tinkering process; or the tinkerers are correct, in which case we can discount Orlov.
In any event, it would take quite an imagination to envision scenarios in which both Orlov is correct yet the tinkerers remain potent.
Posted by: Duncan Kinder | Tuesday, 10 June 2008 at 01:32 PM
Until someone can figure out how to purify, polish and etch a chip in a printer then all of this is just PR. The smallest chip plants I've seen are about the size of a large server. But they still require the input of polished silicon wafers, whose manufacture requires a huge magnetic silicon purification plant and then another facility for acid polishing the blanks; a rather nasty process that produces lots of nasty environmental contaminants ( one of the reasons photovoltaic solar power is not truly a green technology ). Now of course this all assumes that transistor chips will continue to be made out of silicon, maybe there'll be a tech migration to another material that will more readily lend itself to "china on a desk". But if I were the Chinese, i wouldn't hold my breath waiting for obsolescences.
Posted by: Azr@el | Thursday, 12 June 2008 at 07:45 PM
"But they still require the input of polished silicon wafers, whose manufacture requires a huge magnetic silicon purification plant and then another facility for acid polishing the blanks; a rather nasty process that produces lots of nasty environmental contaminants ( one of the reasons photovoltaic solar power is not truly a green technology ). "
A good reason why we need to look silicon-based solutions in the mouth.
More generally, this relates to replacing our current strategy of sending ever stronger and stronger signals ( via silicon ) with detecting ever weaker and weaker signals.
One model for how resilient communities might thereby evolve was demonstrated by 14th Century Russian society.
A thumbnail sketch of medieval Russian history is as follows:
About 1250 the Mongols crushed Kiev and seized control of the wealthy southern plains, where their cavalry were more effective. However, they left semi-autonomous but subservient the poor, forested north, where their cavalry were less effective.
In the following two centuries, the Russian principalities in the north grew in strength until, about 1450, they rallied under Muscovy and threw off the Mongol yoke.
At issue is how, between 1250 and 1450, they managed so to grow in strength.
According to Timothy Ware in _The Orthodox Church_, monasticism played a crucial role in this 14th century revival:
http://www.amazon.com/Orthodox-Church-New-Timothy-Ware/dp/0140146563/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1213364379&sr=8-1
"Sergius of Radonexh (?1314-92), the greatest national saint of Russia, is closely connected with the recovery of the land in the fourteenth century. The outward pattern of his life recalls that of St Anthony of Egypt. In early manhood Sergius withdrew into the forests (the northern equivalent of the Egyptian desert) and here he funded a hermitage dedicated to the Holy Trinity. After several years of solitude, his place of retreat became known, disciples gathered round him, and he grew into into a spiritual guide, an 'elder' or starets. Finally ( and here the parallel with Anthony ends ) he turned his group of disciples into a regular monastery, which became within his own lifetime the greatest religious house in the land.....
....Sergius played an active role in politics. A close friend of the Grand Dukes of Moscow, he encouraged the city in its expansion, and it is significant that before the Battle of Kulikovo the leader of the Russian forces...went specially to Sergius to secure his blessing.
....[Sergius' monastery was founded in the wilderness at a distance from the civilized world. Sergius was in his way an explorer and a colonist, pushing forward the boundaries of civilization and subjecting the forest to cultivation. Nor is he the only example of a colonist monk at the time. Others went like him into the forests to become hermits but, in their case as in his, what started soon grew into a regular monastery, with a civilian town outside the walls. Then the whole process would start all over again: a fresh generation of monks in search of the solitary life would make their way into the yet more distant forest, disciples would follow, new communities would form, fresh land would be cleared for agriculture. This steady advance of colonist monks is one of the most striking features of fourteenth- and fifteenth-century Russia. From Radonezh and other centres a vast network of religious houses spread swiftly across the whole of north Russia as far as the White Sea and the Arctic Circle....These explorer monks were not only colonists but missionaries...
Sergius has been called the 'Builder of Russia', and such he was in three senses: politically, for he encouraged the rise of Moscow and the resistance against the Tarters; geographically, fir it was he more than any other who inspired the great advance of monks into the forests; and spiritually, for through his experience of mystical prayer he deepened the inner lif of the Russian Church.
....These two centuries were also a golden age of Russian religious art."
Posted by: Duncan Kinder | Friday, 13 June 2008 at 09:58 AM
The Russians eventually defeated their Neo-Mongol overlords by emulating them. The cossacks were little more than Mongol mingaans/hazaras where Eastern orthodoxy mixed with Mongol Shamanism. Will one day Hezbollah open up a few saraya franchises stateside where bible thumping evangelicalism will mix with Shia warrior mysticism. Please stop the train: I'm getting off here thank you.
Posted by: Azr@el | Sunday, 15 June 2008 at 04:00 PM