JOURNAL: The Descent of the West

There are already significant signs that October's massive multi-government bail-out of the global financial system has failed (in less than a week). Worse, the fundamentals of the tangible economy are also showing signs of rapid onset failure. We are now headed towards a severe global recession (potentially depression) that will last years (or worse, a decade or more). Here's some potential headlines for articles we may read in the near to mid term (this crisis is moving quickly, so they may come sooner than later):

"The Zombie Nation-State" Financially fragile nation-states, depleted by numerous and massive bail-outs, now dominate the global landscape. What happened?

"The American Consumer RIP" Massive debt and diminishing incomes have killed the American consumer. We explain why the death of the American consumer will remake the global economy.

"The Incredible Shrinking DoD" How the US Department of Defense, which once controlled a budget as big as the rest of the world combined, will soon be less than half of its previous size.

"Why Did China Fail?" The collapse and subsequent split up of China caught the entire world by surprise. In this article, we explore the connection between the end of American consumerism and political failure in China.

Comments

[Duncan Kinder]

Another headline:

Pentecostalism spreads in Third World Slums:

http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/1529/68/

quote:

Pentecostalism and South America's Social Movements Print E-mail
Written by Raúl Zibechi
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
Source: Americas Program

In several Latin American social movements a new reading is emerging of the role being played by Pentecostal churches in poor urban neighborhoods and their political consequences.

"Pentecostalism is the largest self-organized movement of urban poor in the world," according to the U.S. urban specialist Mike Davis. His opinions on this religious movement tend to be rejected outright by many leftist intellectuals. However, Davis is convinced that "many people on the left have made the mistake of assuming that Pentecostalism is a reactionary force—and it's not."

Davis is not just being provocative. He is opening minds to conduct research without ideological prejudices and to view reality based on the people's needs. He explains that among the urban poor in Latin America, Pentecostalism is a religion of women that produces real material benefits. "Women who join the church, and who can get their husbands to join with them, often see significant increases in their standard of living: the men are less likely to drink, or whore, or gamble all their money away."

We should add that it also decreases domestic violence. Davis believes that one of the great attractions of Pentecostalism is that "it's a kind of para-medicine." The health of the poor is in permanent crisis and can destabilize their lives, wherever neoliberalism has devastated state health services, and the prices of medicines are sky high. He states that in peripheral areas Pentecostals have been successful in curing alcoholism, neuroses, and obsessions. With some irony, he defines it as a kind of "spiritual health delivery system."

:end_of_quote

[S]

John,

ironic that the conomy is turning out to be the black swan. The US went all in to the FIRE sector and that has turned out very badly. The financial sector turned into a parasite on the real economy. The US calculated that it could arbitrage its funding advanatrge (dollar hegemony) and turn itself into LT Capital therby earning essentially economic rents in perpetuity while the rest of the world produced consumables for the masses. Tragically, the bankers sold the ignorant folks in Congress on this new paradigm hook line and sinker. The real dislocations will come when the Us tries to reassert itself somewhere and finds itself crippled. The US has reached its Auez moment and the casualties henceofrth will be vastly larger than anyone is currently anticipating. While CNBC dwells on the banks, the larger geostrategic and geoeconomic system is in pre cardiac arrest stage. This is going to very interesting over the next few years. The US has been downgraded but denial reigns

[Mark]

John,

Do you think the United States in 1933 was a failed or 'zombie' state?

Duncan,

I too have been reading about Pentecostals playing an emerging role in Latin American slums. I had not read anyone attempting to make sense of their rise, though. Thanks.

[Glenn Condell]

'Do you think the United States in 1933 was a failed or 'zombie' state?'

Neither. It had a failed finance system, one based on piratical, predatory capitalism rather than the more stolid but sensible mutuality found in say London at the same time (the elites still full then of noblesse oblige aristocrats who had a constitutional distrust of the City and it's trade).

What America had then that it does not now is 3/4 of it's oil still in the ground, a network of family farms and people with the know-how to work them, a stable climate for the foreseeable future, a relatively obedient or at least conformist populace and the goodwill of much of the rest of the world. It also did not have the tools for domestic counter-insurgency close at hand.

What are you talking about? Stop your ignorant speculation of the demise of western ideas.

First modern history is already over flowing with the echos of idiots(prophets)who the end.

Second are you familiar with market corrections?

Third I fear that you use words that you do not understand. Most of the ideas you posit are half baked at best. That does not make them less interesting. It only means someone else will need to do the real thinking.

Forth globalism has been proceeding fro a long, long time. Its march will continue given that it is impossible to conceive of the world without the benefits it has, it is and it will provide humanity.

Fifth you must look at constructs that are not just conflict (war) centric.

Finally, take a deep breadth and realize your spewing is based upon your compulsion to understand what is happening. Life has never afforded this to no anyone and never will.

[complexfatwa]

So much hubris and so little to say....

When will you trolls figure out that disrespect only makes you look ridiculous? If you have something to say, articulate it in a dignified manner or save us the childish drivel. You've added nothing with your bombast.

Glenn,

Hi there. All good points. I'd just extend it slightly by saying that in the 1930s the US was closer to falling to Fascism than many might think.

Is it fair to call a fascist military dictatorship taking over a democracy a Zombie state? I suppose that there is an argument to be made that the basis of the US nation state, the Constitution, would be null and void at that point.

In 1933 America's richest businessmen panicked. By then it was clear that Roosevelt intended a redistribution of wealth from the rich to the poor. This had to be stopped at all costs. That, in the middle of the Great Depression, the poor still had to eat was neither here nor there for the ultra-wealthy.

Brilliantly the answer was a military coup, financed and organized by the Morgan and Du Pont businesses. The political front organisation for this would be the American Liberty League. The expressed intention was a fascist state, based on Mussolini's Italy. This love of Italian and German fascism wasn't unusual at this time - in both the UK and the US any number of rich, powerful people liked a system that kept them at the top. Outside of the plotters, among fascisms American supporters were Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller and both John and Allen Dulles.

The chosen front man was a noted war hero, General Smedley Butler, leading a force of WW1 veterans who were, at that time, camped in Washington demanding their veteran's payments. The problem for the coup was that Butler was also a genuine patriot. Butler went public in front of what would later become the House Un-American Activities Committee, but in its 1933 incarnation had a marginally more innocent role.

The plotters were so powerful that none of them were questioned, and the Committee whitewashed the public version of its final report, deleting the names of powerful businessmen whose reputations they sought to protect. Even today the story is little known outside of historians and people that specialise in coups and revolutions.

The story finally came out 34 years later - in 1967 when the real report was uncovered by a journalist.

So how close did the US come to becoming a Zombie state in 1933? Had the plotters been smarter and not chosen a genuine patriot for their front man, they'd probably had succeeded in at least removing Roosevelt - in 1933 he was hardly well guarded. As 2003 Iraq shows it only takes a couple of idiots in the right place and the entire thing goes into the kitty-litter.

http://www.amazon.com/Cant-Happen-Here-Sinclair-Lewis/dp/045121658X/ref=sr_1_8?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1224397142&sr=8-8

[Former Republican]

John-

What are the "significant signs" that the bailout of the financial system has failed? Two signs that it hasn't (yet) failed are that stock markets generally rose last week and that short-term interest rates fell. Three-month dollar LIBOR fell about 50 basis points, for example.

I am very pessimistic, because no one is doing anything about the lack of trust. I think you may very well turn out to be right, but I do think it's too early to tell.

I tend to agree with you that we are looking at a severe recession and quite possibly worse. But, again, it's too early to tell. The future has a way of confounding predictions.

Wishy-washily yours,

Former Republican

[Duncan Kinder]

One point not explored has been how the current credit crunch is affecting your friendly local loan shark. Has the difficulty in obtaining financing elsewhere lead to an uptick for his business?

I'm not sure how we would determine this - other than anecdotal surveys of law enforcement.

But I would predict his business is booming.

[johnrobb]

The reason for these headlines is MUCH less prediction than a foil to get people to think. Use it as an immunization against future events.

[cheritycall]

How are you?, Give something to help the hungry people in Africa or India,
I made this blog about this subject:
on http://tinyurl.com/5t2jg6

[talbott]

As a career soldier the idea of DoD being cut in half is quite concerning. I recently made the switch from operations into strategic intelligence for many reasons, one of which relates to your possible headline. After spending a year as a combat advisor in iraq it became clear that the tactical problem was locating the bad guys - tactics quite literally became an after thought. Even a poorly trained iraqi unit can trade blows with an equally poorly trained insurgent. But finding that insurgent is next to impossible without deep intelligence networks. Therefore, I concluded that future relavence in DoD had to be in intelligence. With promised cuts on the horizon, this conclusion might just be coming to be...