RC JOURNAL: Towards Supempowered Homes

The value of a home today is based on location (commute distance, school quality, neighborhood, etc.), size, and quality/amenities. However, those metrics are likely to change markedly in the near future, mainly due to the recognition of the rising risks and uncertainties of living a globally connected world. This realization will generate new metrics by which we value a home -- the most important of which may be a home's (whether it be an apartment building or a single family home) ability to retain and produce energy. Homes that don't have high scores in this area (which unfortunately will be the majority) put their owners at risk of financial ruin, dislocation, and deprivation.

NOTE: Excess production will likely be electricity (a premium energy product), which is shared/sold with/to community members.

Comments

[Duncan Kinder]

"he most important of which may be a home's (whether it be an apartment building or a single family home) ability to retain and produce energy."

Let's generalize this. Value results from the ability to produce and retain negentropy - information.

Upon this basis we develop a new economics.

[jheier]

I think you'll also see a section in home listings citing the solar and wind resources that are avaialble on the property.

[BangkokBill]

Just a couple questions here:
1) What do you envision with the term, "near future"? 1 year, 5 years, 10 years?
2) Do you think this will be a global phenomenon or will it only apply in certain areas such as the U.S. and Europe?
3) Does anyone out there know of any markets where this has already happened/is happening? I believe that many homes in unstable areas (Iraq, Lebanon, etc.) already have generators but does anyone know if these things are actually used as selling points within the market?

[John Robb]

BB:

Near term <5 years.

Global rather than regional, although methods will vary.

Lots of initiatives already underway, most notably with the transition towns effort.

You are right about the use of generators in unstable areas.

Is it a selling point? Not yet. It will be.

[Duncan Kinder]

"China has held together pretty darn well over the last two and a half thousand years through some amazingly awful times."

Adam,

I certainly don't want to get in a debate over Chinese history, which - at best - would be a waste of time, but I do want to grab this sentence to make a point.

One of the most horrific episodes in Chinese history was the 756 AD An Lu-shan Rebellion, which nearly destroyed the T'ang Dynasty and which caused China's population to drop from about 50 million to about 17 million.

It was also the great period of Chinese poetry. ( One of the most famous poems, by perhaps the greatest poet, Tu Fu, was a lament over his son's death from starvation. )

Likewise, the great period of Chinese philosophy is known as the Warring States period.

China is not unique in its experience of great creativity coinciding with great distress. The great Greek dramas took place during the Peloponnesian Wars, while Socrates then prowled Athens' agora. I could cite numerous other examples.

Apparently we are heading toward similar stresses. One of the most rational responses, therefore, - matters of pure survival aside - might simply be to take music lessons.

[adam]

Duncan,

No debate here. You are completely correct. I should have said why so much Chinese art and entertainment to this day focusses on some pretty grim periods of Chinese history. Apologies.

I do like the idea of music lessons. Somewhere in my background I have grade 5 flute...

[TM Lutas]

We were already headed to grid parity solar within the next two years. This was without the new 'black silicon' process that has just surfaced this week which improves silicon's abilities for solar significantly. For small usage scenarios, like residential in reasonable houses, I think we're going to be ok. It's the big heavy industrial energy users that are going to spell trouble.

[Flagg]

Blacklight Power is claiming further validation of their micro-power plant concept. If this does make it to commercial production (and they have a lot of capital behind them), then we have a potential game-changer in this technology and what appears to be a huge tech shift in favor of smaller entities such as resilient communities and global guerrillas.

http://www.blacklightpower.com/

[Just An Australian]

Here in Australia, we also evaluate the water balance of the house and the land upon which the house sits. Already, outside the city, access to water is the most valuable portion. This is a recent thing, but becoming ever more important.

I expect that as well as energy and (clean) water, the ability to generate food will also suddenly become part of the value of the house again