THE SWITCH

Traditional guerrilla movements and insurgencies were founded on strict ideologies or political agendas. As a result, their organizations tended towards hierarchy and strong central control. However, the advent of a dominant global market (that no organization, despite claims to the contrary, controls) and the subsequent and inevitable weakening of the nation-state changed that. It substituted market values for ideological or political values and insurgencies are quickly changing to reflect that. For example:

• A group is only successful, long term, if it can consistently generate wealth (as in: enjoy economic success).
  
• Dynamism, resilience, and flexibility are prized over size, rigidness, and purity.
  
• Alliances, cooperation, and interconnectedness is better than "go it alone" or rabidly competitive approaches.

The Impact on Organizations
This "switch" also means that control of the nation-state became is nearly useless in an environment where success was only generated by competition within a global market system at a local level. As a result, modern or 21st Century guerrilla movements/insurgencies increasingly don't put ideology or politics first (although there are some high profile hold-outs, reversals such as al Qaeda suffered in Iraq demonstrate that an inability to invert goals is the path to failure). Increasingly, they put economics first, or more specifically: they focus on the ability of the group and its members to generate wealth. They do this through the integration of their military capability with production centers and supply routes that power the multi-trillion dollar flows of Black Globalization. This connection provides them with the ability to:

• Grow Support. Become competitive with the state in an ability to generate wealth (and everything that economic advantage implies: from services to security) for supporters. This is a competition for legitimacy and nation-state are increasingly losing that competition.
  
• Grow Operations. Grow operations through the development of business operations that enable ever greater wealth. Contrast this to the spiraling deficits and (soon) cuts in security budgets at the nation-state level.
  
• Gain Efficiency and Productivity. Financial success enables these groups to efficiently expand operations through dynamic market operations that enable the rapid purchase of everything from assassinations to IED attacks. This not only vastly expands the pool of participants, it enables specialization and rapid innovation.

It should be apparent that "the switch" to economic agendas in combination with decentralized organizational structures makes modern guerrillas much more dangerous than ever in history. While 9/11 demonstrated the growing leverage (in an ability to do harm) of small groups and Iraq/Afghanistan the power of doggedness of decentralized organizations, this depression will demonstrate the strength of economically driven operations. Barring a major and unforeseen redux in how nation-states operate, we might see the world look like Swiss cheese by early in the next decade: as in, most nation-states riddled with ungoverned spaces/holes in their territory, lost to insurgent groups.

Comments

[S]

John,

Look at most recent GDP nnumber, military keynesianism is what people are calling it. last gasps, perhaps.

Saw a tidbit on pakistani military growing its force of UAVs (homegrown). The technology in many ways is the next iteration of model planes, so no surprise. But as technology and or capability democratizes the picture grows scarier.

[Duncan Kinder]

John, your description of "Swiss Cheese" societies resembles the growth and spread of medieval monasteries, which played an important economic role in those times. ( E.g., consider Brandy and Benedictine ) Monastic lands formed swiss cheese islands in Europe.

These transnational networks of monasteries posed a significant challenge to European monarchies. As the nation states rose, they were suppressed, most famously by Henry VIII in England but other monarchs also abolished or came to dominate them. In Italy, where the Church was particularly strong, national development was delayed.

[zenpundit]

"Barring a major and unforeseen redux in how nation-states operate, we might see the world look like Swiss cheese by early in the next decade: as in, most nation-states riddled with ungoverned spaces/holes in their territory, lost to insurgent groups."

I think the riddling was already there, everywhere perhaps but in the USSR under Stalin and some densely populated European states.

Much of the world was very lightly governed until recently and local elites entered into de facto bargains with the sovereign states that could mobilize enough force to exterminate them if they ventured into open rebellion. So Mormons and Cossacks, Boers and Creoles, conformed to certain "imperial" demands of the state ( taxes, military service)and acknowledged its suzerainty in return for relative autonomy and local primacy.

Note that when the fear of punishment withdrew, so did the loyalty of many local elites. The Cossacks went from being the pillar of Tsarism to joining in it's overthrow in a blink of an eye in 1917. The Boers imposed Apartheid on South Africa as soon as Britain showed her post-WWII exhaustion.

The national/transnational elite running modern Western nation-states lack both the nerve to engage in a life-or-death struggle with their enemies and the political acumen to recognize emergent rivals and co-opt them. Too self-interested/careerist, too obtuse and too comfortable - they are looking for personal safe landings, not a counter-strategy for survival.

[Duncan Kinder]

The Mafia Is Italy's Biggest Business:
Organized Crime Takes Away Equivalent of Nearly $13 Million an Hour From Legitimate Businesses

Organized crime is the biggest business in Italy, according to the latest study by the country's shopkeepers association, Confesercenti.

That Italy's mafias do a booming business, particularly the drug-related variety, is common knowledge. But the effect on the country's legitimate businesses such as tourism and food production had not been as clear until the Confesercenti released the figures, which are staggering.
....
They are, effectively, the biggest company in Italy. "Everyday, organized crime takes some 250 million euros (about $317.5 million) away from retailers and businessmen," the study said. "The equivalent of 10 million euros [about $12.7 million] an hour, or 160,000 euros [about $203,000] a minute."
....
The mobsters' business interests have also gone beyond the "traditional" extortion, contraband and drug dealing and infiltrated deeper into important sectors of the legitimate economy such as tourism, restaurants and food production.
....
The ongoing economic crisis fuels the beast. "The economic crisis makes the Mafia even more dangerous, " Marco Venturi, the chairman of Confesercenti, told reporters in presenting the study.

When banks tighten their lending, businesses turn to the mob, he noted, which uses the economy's weakness and uncertainty "to strengthen its position." Companies that are financially weak are easier to buy or influence.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=6238022&page=1

[XON]

I like that you've finally said what you're really thinking. The nation-state has some competition coming, and it doesn't seem like it's going to be nice. I'm actually curious to see how 'charismatic' these switch orgs are going to be.

Will we all want to join up?

[a]

I do like your perspective and insight on things. However, I believe your apocalyptic vision of the future, which you claim will occur within a decade, does seem a bit far fetched.

[complexfatwa]

a,

Frankly, if you think this post was apocalyptic, then you haven't been paying attention on what's happening in vast swaths of the third world. The rise in non-state military force and shadow economy activity is real and shows no sign of abating. I suggest you do some research.

[complexfatwa]

"as in, most nation-states riddled with ungoverned spaces/holes in their territory, lost to insurgent groups."

I would say insurgent groups is probably to limiting a term for the phenomenon; large shadow economy players and primary loyalty aggregations are not insurgent groups per se, but also contribute to the swiss-cheese effect. Examples - Mexican narco cartels, Brazilian and American urban gangs, Russian and Italian Mafias.

[complexfatwa]

Damn. last comment....
The above groups make no pretensions to political legitimacy or seizure of state apparatus, but rather through a combination of local influence and force carve out de-facto autonomous zones in what might be called a proliferation of effective warlordism.

[Duncan Kinder]

"Intelligence officials are warning that the deepening global financial crisis could weaken fragile governments in the world's most dangerous areas and undermine the ability of the United States and its allies to respond to a new wave of security threats.

U.S. government officials and private analysts say the economic turmoil has heightened the short-term risk of a terrorist attack, as radical groups probe for weakening border protections and new gaps in defenses. A protracted financial crisis could threaten the survival of friendly regimes from Pakistan to the Middle East while forcing Western nations to cut spending on defense, intelligence and foreign aid, the sources said.

The crisis could also accelerate the shift to a more Asia-centric globe, as rising powers such as China gain more leverage over international financial institutions and greater influence in world capitals."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/14/AR2008111403864.html

[Duncan Kinder]

"The exploitation of a tin mine by a renegade militia is emblematic of the deadly role the Congo's immense natural wealth has played in its misery."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/16/world/africa/16congo.html?ref=world

[Duncan Kinder]

"The drug violence that has left nearly 4,000 people dead this year in Mexico is spreading deep into the United States, leaving a trail of slayings, kidnappings and other crimes in at least 195 cities as far afield as Atlanta, Boston, Seattle and Honolulu, according to federal authorities.

The involvement of the top four Mexican drug-trafficking organizations in distribution and money-laundering on U.S. soil has brought a war once dismissed as a foreign affair to the doorstep of local communities."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-cartels16-2008nov16,0,1692616.story

[Glenn Condell]

'"The drug violence that has left nearly 4,000 people dead this year in Mexico is spreading deep into the United States, leaving a trail of slayings, kidnappings and other crimes in at least 195 cities as far afield as Atlanta, Boston, Seattle and Honolulu, according to federal authorities.'

It's no country for old men.

[Anonymous]

Hey John. Think the Free Staters count as an insurgency? Walking around with pistols on your hip has to count for something.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN9d_et21zw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWnbsxBmyjM

(Ridley Report)

[Anonymous]

Or maybe this is how America falls?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPww2RXi1bM&NR=1

"The Muska Incident"

[Grant Henninger]

John,

Because of your diction, it sounds as if you are describing a bad thing. Wouldn't it be good for "guerrilla movements/insurgencies" to provide services and generate wealth? As I've said before, resilient communities are the other side of this coin you are describing. The same organizational principals are being used, the only difference are the goals of the group. In either case, we see a weakening of the nation-state. So the question should really become, is the nation-state the only legitimate sovereign organizational structure or can resilient communities or guerrilla groups also be legitimized?

[g48]

Grant, here's the problem:

Assume for a moment, resilient communities, and globalized criminal enterprises.

Who wins?

Obviously, the criminal gangs win. Unless...

Unless the resilient communities are prepared to use military and quasi-military means of defense against the criminal enterprises.

---

Human history in a nutshell:

Those with high tolerance for pain dominate those with low tolerance for pain, until or unless the latter can organize themselves in such a manner that the probability of pain for each member is reduced.

Press the Go button and watch the game unfold.

---

Look folks, the world is overpopulated by about 60%. The value of life is inversely proportional to the cost of life support. We are already headed for a three-gigadeath dieoff, or three-hundred-Hitler holocaust as it were, as a direct consequence of ecological and resource crises. The question is, who lives and who dies?

Pirates, terrorists, and criminal gangs are expendable. Surplus mouths that contribute nothing and take much. Therefore, exterminate them mercilessly.

---

Re. monasteries:

These performed an additional function. They served as repositories of knowledge during the dark ages.

We are heading for a new dark age, also as a result of ecological and resource crises.

Resilient communities must perform two functions in order to preserve civilization through the coming dark age.

One, prevent a generalized increase in violence within their borders. This is not inconsistent with exterminating criminal and terrorist organizations that would, if unchecked, cause a significant increase in the level of violence.

Two, protect existing accumulated knowledge in all of its forms, and contribute to the general increase in knowledge wherever possible. Libraries, schools, institutions of higher learning, etc. etc.

---

And if anyone thinks *this* post is apocalyptic, do the thought experiment:

Imagine taking a stack of newspapers from 2000 to present, and climbing into a mythical time machine, and setting the destination dials for some time between 1950 - 1970. Now you step out of the time machine and try telling people of the post-WW2 era what the 21st century looks like.

How would they respond?

Hint: Most of them would think you an apocalypse nut. And your stack of newspapers wouldn't change that.

The proverbial poo started to hit the fan years ago. Now we complain because the walls are speckled and the floor is splattered. We're living through the "interesting times" right now, but like allegorical frogs in the pot on the stove, most humans don't recognize the increasing warmth of the water for what it is. Those of us who do, have a better chance of hopping out before the water boils, and living to tell the tale.