THE GREAT REBOOT

"...we don’t just need a bailout. We need a reboot." Thomas Friedman got it right in that it's : "Time to Reboot America". Unfortunately, the prescriptive solutions in the article are garbage.

America does need a reboot but it can't be achieved through top-down stimulus or reconstruction. It has to start at the bottom and grow organically.

NOTE: A reboot begins when simple core process is started which in turn starts another process and so on in series until the entire complex edifice of fully functional system is reconstructed.

So, what does this new, better core process look like? It starts at the community level with a wholesale reinvention that makes networked communities:

• Resilient to rapidly propagating global shocks (an inevitable outcome of a global system that is too large, fast, and complex to control).
  
• Highly productive in their ability to produce everything from food to products to energy (they produce wealth). Networked innovation.
  
• Extremely efficient and low cost. This stems from: shorter distances, less energy, less space, less time, less mass, and less information (as in, less management overhead required).

Fortunately, all the technological trends are leading us towards radical improvements in efficiency and productivity for doing real things at the micro level -- everything from high intensity small plot farming to personal fabrication to DIY synthetic biology to global tinkering networks to high efficiency local energy production. Even better, the ability to connect these communities via networks means that these new local powerhouses can work together synergistically. In short, the density of the improvements offered by this new model are akin to the quantitative and qualitative improvements (and the decades of opportunity space to improve capability exponentially) that we saw with the move from vacuum tubes to transistors in computational hardware.

So, how do we escape from our failing vacuum tube economy with its incredible inefficiencies and inevitable heat death? You start at the small. Find the model for the first design of the transistor-like local economy that can be copied throughout the entire global network. Once that model is found, you begin a process similar to the equivalent of the exponential improvements of Moore's law for the local and ride that curve to success.

Comments

[Cycling in Hollywood]

thanks John you actually cheered me up for a minute with your talk of a decentralized technological Renaissance!

happy holidays to you from LA

part of society's problem is that we have very little quality control/measurement of the new humans we are creating, so we continue to get what we have had from time immemorial, and hope that our good folks will land where they can be maximized - but at root, we have a chaotic process for youth creation - dunnot HOW we address this, but there is huge salesmanship/marketing to be done to even get a significant percentage of people to know/understand/grok this basic fact

[Chris E]

Once that model is found, you begin a process similar to the equivalent of the exponential improvements of Moore's law for the local and ride that curve to success.

Not meaning to puncture optimism John, but have you seen the size of the fabs needed to drive moores law - with their attendent need for basic physical research.

[Duncan Kinder]

It starts at the community level

Perhaps more interesting would be how it might start at the individual level, so that you, or I, or John, or anyone else reading this blog might be better able to inspire those about them - family, friends, neighbors, etc., to become rebooters.

[Duncan Kinder]

"Not meaning to puncture optimism John, but have you seen the size of the fabs needed to drive moores law - with their attendent need for basic physical research."

I don't have an answer to this, but I do have a response.

Essentially the current economy focuses on how to turn lead into gold - manufacture, derivatives, whatever. By getting the best assortment, we get the best value. When these efforts fail, we get the economic problems we now face.

We need an economy that celebrates lead for itself - that accepts lead as lead and finds value in that. This calls for a different sort of cleverness, perhaps wisdom, instead.

[John Robb]

Chris, that may be taking the analogy too far. However, I'm game.

The fabrication facility for a high powered local economy isn't a factory floor in physical space. It innovation, transactions, insight etc. derived from networks in information space.

[John Robb]

Our global economy, from an efficiency/creativity/productivity stand-point is medieval.

We don't customize production, but instead produce vast quantities of identical items.

We ship orders for production half way around the world and waste vast quantities of energy/time transporting them back to us.

To manage the spaghetti logic of our global distribution/production system, we need vast phalanxes of managerial paper/button pushers -- of zero product use.

The list goes on....

The only good thing about crisis/breakdown of the global system is that it makes it possible (rather... imperative) to restructure on a sounder basis.

[fairhavenhorn]

Have you looked at building on the existing local cadre of resilience workers? The social churches have a large cadre of support for much of what you discuss. Their focus tends to be different. Social experiences and education also tend to result in significant hostility between them and the businesslike players. But there is a large shared interest that can be developed.

For example, you have mentioned CSAs and urban gardening. Did you know that there are local church organizations helping coordinate CSAs, farmer's markets, providing guides to the public explaining what is currently best local, etc. The guide is interesting because unlike the locavore eco-Puritan rules, it is a simple listing of foods that would be available for the next few months that were cost effective to grow locally.

You do need to separate the theologically oriented churches (very common) from the socially oriented churches (also common). There is a continuum of church interests, and it will be easier to start with those that have mostly a community focus.

[Al]

Personally, I'd rather have nothing to do with churches as part of any social organization. I'm a non-Christian and don't really support more empowerment for churches at the expense of secular society. I don't trust them not to try to convert me or others and to make their services contingent on belief.

[fairhavenhorn]

Al, I wonder if you would extend that to Islam, where the social impact of churches in their part of the world is quite dramatic, or Buddhism with a similarly huge impact in their part of the world. For consistency sake you should. But this is also part of forming new alliances and forming a resilient community. That is why I suggest starting with the community oriented churches.

You are sharing this world with a very powerful cadre. They can be your ally or they can be your enemy. Consider the alternatives carefully. We often criticize those who ignore the realities of local cultural life in remote combat locations. Do not be blind to the local realities where you live. Choose your enemies carefully.

[dryki]

Reboot is the wrong metaphor.

We need a new kernel.

cfm

[James Bowery]

Good metaphor, dryki.

[radish]

As good as the post and commentary are, I have to respectfully disagree that this is an apt metaphor. Reboots necessarily involve either the literal "death" or the literal "birth" (or both) of the system being rebooted.

The notion of "rebooting" only makes sense for "iterative" or "poietic" systems. That is, systems in which additional structure emerges from an initial condition which approximates a stable thermodynamic equilibrium but is very low in entropy (e.g. autopoietic organisms reproducing via spores or new offspring, or exopoietic systems like computers).

It doesn't apply to an individual system persisting in continuous disequilibrium (like the weather, or an economy), or for which an approach toward thermal equilibrium would mean an irreversible rise in entropy (like n individual organism).

It's not really a "reboot" if somebody's heart is restarted or they get new prosthetics or the change their lifestyle (no matter how dramatically), because the person in question never approached thermodynamic equilibrium. If they had, they'd be dead. Since they didn't die, they're the "same" system, with the same path dependence; representing and encapsulating the same original sequence of irreversible transitions. They have not "shed" their history, though their aggregate entropy is likely to have changed somewhat.

I know this is a nitpicky distinction with ambiguous boundaries, but it's often the almost-correct metaphor that leads us furthest astray.

[ron]

The blacksmith did more then shoe horse stock, rather he made custom products for farms and business within the local area. Those towns that did not have a blacksmith normally someone a farmer or rancher provided the service.
As a young person growing up in the 50's the family ordered a new car and waited several months while it was assembled built and delivered.
Part of the change will be regional manufacturing area's that produce products that citizens need on a as needed basis vs overproduction and consumption. The internet provides a ready basis for this transition.
Make it happen.

[Aaron Black]

"Not meaning to puncture optimism John, but have you seen the size of the fabs needed to drive moores law - with their attendent need for basic physical research."

Big-Number FUD. The capital just looks big because it's all in one place.

The new model is to desktop pcs what the old model is to room-filling vacuum tubes. We're just waiting for the next Google to tie all the distributed components together.

[Kevin]

Horrible analogy. Vacume tubes are immune to EMP.

[John Robb]

LOL. Hey, understand the problems with the analogy, but the idea of a substrate shift is what is most important to get across.

[Chris Levitt]

John, interesting view. Decentralization is a powerful tool. In my view, that's why capitalism works. It harnesses the creativity and drive of the individual. It's built on entrepreneurship which requires speed, flexibility, and innovation. There's been a significant decay and corruption of that system, so it makes sense to reboot. Unfortunately, some of the applications currently installed may be corrupted. In that case, we need to reload.

Having said that, the nation-state still plays a dramatic role in making that work. Top-level leadership in some form is still a requirement. If nothing more than to clear the obstacles and get out of the way.

I think that global shocks are more a result of nation-state low intensity conflict than micro-scale upstarts trying to start a war. Russian hackers could not have attacked Georgian networks without state allowance. Iraqi insurgency could not have reached the pinnacle it did without Chinese, Iranian, Sudanese, Lebanese, and Syrian allowance. George Soros couldn't have crashed the British pound without nation-states choosing to wait it out.

While I agree with you that resilient communities are important and advisable, I'm not sure how that's accomplished or how different that is from modern entrepreneurial models, especially those developed for rural areas. The unipolar world is rebalancing, for better or worse. The world is at war on a scale its never seen before. But this war, whether waged with trenches, Mausers, botnets or indiviual cell terrorism, is still a state-sponsored war that would cease to exist if the state ceases to exist.

[Aaron]

I wonder about the social ramifications of such a reboot--or, rather, the societal sea change that would be necessary for any significant portion of the population to adopt such a radical difference in the way we live our lives. At some level, it represents abandonment of faith in the nation-state model--which, even if a majority of the population survives with its standard of living (or an equivalent standard) intact, basically means the death of nations.

Not saying that's a good or bad thing, or even that it's on the horizon. But I do think it's a possible eventual result of the resilient community concept.

[Passerby]

Quoting: Decentralization is a powerful tool. In my view, that's why capitalism works. It harnesses the creativity and drive of the individual. It's built on entrepreneurship which requires speed, flexibility, and innovation. There's been a significant decay and corruption of that system, so it makes sense to reboot. Unfortunately, some of the applications currently installed may be corrupted. In that case, we need to reload.
----

There's a blogger over at the Harvard blogger site who writes on the emergent "new business DNA". His name is Umair something. We're already starting to see new business models launching such as industry aggregation which are the business version of rhizome social networks.

Change brings stress and these are very stressful times.

[Duncan Kinder]

What is the Harvard blogger site?

[Passerby]

http://discussionleader.hbsp.com/haque/

[Lance Miller]

I've been long onboard for your Resilient Communities thesis. So my counter here is not just mean-spirited trolling.

What about building Interstate Highways, big ships, and other big-ness?

I've been doing research on the new local industrialism paradigm, (example: http://lumenlab.com/estore/product.php?productid=16271&cat=271&page=1)
and love the stuff, and believe in the ascending paradigm. Would like someone to offer more details on how to do big-ness AND the local.

(disclosure: not connected to lumenlab at all, just a good example.)

[John Robb]

Fairhavenhorn, excellent point re: the role of social churches. Please send me pointers to more resources on this if you get a moment.

[John Robb]

Lance, bigness is already here. It won't go away. There's a big caveat to that statement. For it to grow again, it will need to become much more efficient/flexible and find firmer footings (a basis for existence).

[Tony]

Like Lance, I'm curious about the role of bigness. I'm also curious about the role of standards. The internet works because everyone's basically speaking the same languages (HTML and derivatives) and using the same protocols.

What happens if we have local production, but they aren't interchangeable? What if Columbus, Ohio builds a power plant, but it won't plug into the Akron power grid? If Columbus builds a railroad, but it's on a different gauge than Cleveland's?

If a car is built in Columbus, will I still be able to get repair parts if I drive it to Colorado?

[Tony]

And here's my other question: In my town (Columbus), lots of neighborhood business associations are setting up Special Improvement Districts. There's one downtown, on the north side, etc.

In these, the businesses agree to an extra tax assessment. That extra money gets spent on neighborhood beautification, neighborhood events -- and extra safety patrols.

Is that a part of your thesis? That the state (in this case, the city) isn't able to provide adequate protection, so the neighborhood is banding together on its own?

[Openworld]

A new report/web site calling for huge, market-sensitive reforms in schools is just out from the Institute for the Future, at http://www.futureofed.org/driver/Platforms-for-Resilience.aspx.

It points to looming disruptors and an urgent need for resilient learning alternatives. Openworld's comment: resilient communities can reward students for success in peer learning, and offer students and their families co-ownership in the next generation of for-profit charter and virtual schools.

More at www.entrepreneurialschools.com.

Mark Frazier
Openworld
"Awakening assets for good"