MEXICO'S BAZAAR OF VIOLENCE

The most likely existential security threat to the United States isn't likely to originate from southwest Asian terrorists or a conventional war with China. Instead, it will originate from Mexico's open source insurgency as:

• The Mexican state becomes hollow and unable to maintain any semblance of control over its territory. Fiscal bankruptcy, driven by declining oil revenues and a global economic depression, will eliminate any remaining legitimacy it has with the countryside (already tenuous due to extreme income stratification).
  
• The narco-insurgency in the northern provinces morphs into a national open source insurgency with thousands of small groups all willing to fight/corrupt/intimidate the government. Many, if not most, of these groups will be able to power themselves forward financially due to massive flows of money from black globalization. The result will be a diaspora north to the US to avoid the violence.
  
• Economic failure, a loss of legitimacy and economic deprivation in the US creates an environment for the rapid proliferation of domestic groups willing to fight the government in order to advance their economic interests. Catalyzed by connections to Mexico's functional and lucrative bazaar of violence (read "Iraq's Bazaar of Violence" for more on how this works), these groups carve out their own territory in the US. Experience shows that once these groups gain a foothold, they become nearly impossible to defeat (although they can be co-opted).
  

Sam Dillon, writing for the NYTs, provides us with a good waypoint check on this scenario. Here is a good example of how quickly the infection can spread:

Jerez, a town of 60,000 a few miles northwest of Felipe Angeles in Zacatecas, was until recently a calm place, largely untouched by organized crime, said Abel Márquez Haro, a grocery wholesaler. But recently, scores of men driving Chevrolet Suburbans and carrying automatic rifles established a menacing presence, threatening residents on the street and extorting businesspeople. The identities of the men remain a mystery, but many people in the town say they assume they are traffickers who have abandoned another Mexican state, perhaps to avoid an army crackdown.

The article goes on to explain how these groups are targeting family members of immigrant workers in the US via kidnapping/extortion. The result has been that workers that would have normally returned during an economic downturn, aren't returning due to safety concerns (and many are trying to bring the rest of their families north to safety).

NOTE: IF your are wondering how a global depression might impact national security, this is it (I suspect that the biggest hew and cry will be over how the fiscal crisis has led to the rapid defunding of hideously expensive conventional weapons systems, of no use to this threat). If you want spice, think about the implications of an economic collapse of Pakistan (needs to borrow), Russia (needs $70+ oil), and China (needs growth in US consumer spending).

Comments

[BrianSJ]

Great if scary post.
O/T, two very good posts on resources today
One on peak oil that does not seem to be from an alarmist - a comment on the FT Alphaville blog.
http://tinyurl.com/8rngdp
One on rare earth and other mineral resources - needed for resilient communities if we are not to go back to the stone age.
http://tinyurl.com/7fevxd

[Aaron Black]

I suspect Alfonso Cuarón's telling of P. D. James' The Children of Men will be considered prophetic in 20 years.

[Aaron Black]

I suspect Alfonso Cuarón's telling of P. D. James' The Children of Men will be considered prophetic in 20 years.

[Aaron Black]

Oops, double post.

BrianSJ, User4236961 is NOT an alarmist? He obviously is. The eager telling of Disaster Porn Scenarios visualizing the obvious consequences of supply disruption is the hallmark of alarmists.

[Duncan Kinder]

In _How the Irish Saved Civilization_ Thomas Cahill discusses a famous episode in the early 400's, when the freezing over of the Rhine allowed a massive German migration into Roman territory.

http://www.amazon.com/Irish-Saved-Civilization-Hinges-History/dp/0385418493/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1231344996&sr=8-1

While this migration was by no means the sole cause for Rome's fall, it punctuates the division between Rome's being the status quo and its being a forlorn hope.

Following Cahill, the time has come to seek obscure refuges in faraway outposts.

[S]

A fair bit of discussion of Joseph Tainter's classic book "The Collapse of Complex Civilizations," over at alculated Ruisk. Thought it fit nicely at least this comment as regards resiliant communities

HAt tip to comment on CalculatedRisk
"The source is Joseph Tainter's classic book, "The Collapse of Complex Civilizations," published in 1988. Never out of print.

Predictions of Mad Max anarchy are a little "out there" - what happens when complex societies collapse is that many different local solutions are found to replace the collapsed entity. In fact, quality of life often improves somewhat for the peasantry. The people who "disappear" are the society's elites (although new elites come to power)."

[John Robb]

S, thanks. Very much like Tainer's book. Recommend it. Will make a more formal recommendation soon.

[James Bowery]

"Fiscal bankruptcy, driven by declining oil revenues and a global economic depression, will eliminate any remaining legitimacy it has with the countryside (already tenuous due to extreme income stratification)."

I'd like to see analysis of the de facto net asset holdings of the countryside under the remnants of ejido.

I've seen very little regarding ejido reform in 1991 and the influx of mexican agricultural workers to the US. It is pretty clear from this article:

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/1992/el92-34.pdf

that ejido reform cleared large numbers of Mexicans from their lands in Mexico in the name of greater GDP.

Putting some numbers to this, and relating it to Reagan's prior actions would be very informative.

[gmoke]

And the Cox newspapers are closing their Mexico City bureau. Read Jeremy Schwartz's reports while you can at
http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/mexico/

[AlanM]

LA Times has been doing good work on this topic, and has linked a lot of material to this URL:

http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war

"extreme income stratification." Major source of societal instability.

Income ratio, USA, 1950s: 40:1.
Germany and Japan today: 33:1 to 40:1
USA today: 400:1
Mexico? Anyone have a statistic?

The problem is not the existence of extreme wealth as such, but the degree to which extreme wealth creates market distortions and hollows out the middle class. This creates a kind of "moat" between those who are economically insecure (at risk for necessities such as housing, food, utilities, and health care), and any reasonably reliable path to economic security.

Deprived of access to economic security, the economically insecure can become bitter and cynical about values that were previously commonly held, including adherence to the law. Thus they become susceptible to criminal influences; as well as their neighborhoods becoming increasingly victimized by endemic crime.

The obvious solution is to restore the middle class, and restore reliable paths, within the law, for the poor to work their way up. However, what's "obvious" is not always "easily achievable," particularly when it runs contrary to embedded vested interests. This is a problem we will face to an increasing degree as the economic crisis winds its way out.

---

What to do about criminal gangs moving into town:

Go to war against them with quasi-military force and methods. That means shooting them dead on sight: extortionists, drug bosses, gang organizers, and so on. Ruthlessness in defense of one's community from these parasites and predators, to prevent them getting the foothold beyond which they can't be removed.

For example, an extortionist attempts to shake down a shopkeeper, but the shopkeeper shoots the extortionist on the spot. Then the extortionist's buddies attempt to burn down the shop, but the neighbors are watching 24/7 and shoot the arsonists. Meanwhile other gang members are attempting to stalk and terrorize the shopkeeper and family; but other members of the neighborhood are waiting, and shoot them on the spot as well. After a while, the gang decides to stop taking casualties and looks for a softer target to invade.

This requires organization, preparation, and willingness to use deadly force. It is not intended for use in places where government is still functioning and not corrupted, where conventional neighborhood watch tactics and rapid police response should suffice.

John, check out my post, dated today, under your item "Middle class consumers."

Summary: use the term "citizen" for a number of reasons including those stated by Cindy in her comment upthread there. That's the word and the meme-set that will work.

[Aaron Black]

"That means shooting them dead on sight: extortionists, drug bosses, gang organizers, and so on."

Blank, agree 100%. A cheap wireless webcam Big Brother network could come in handy here.

[Goyo & Juanita]

While the "shoot on sight" may sound like a viable solution - one has to remember that there is no "gun culture" (in the law abiding, NRA sense) here in Mexico like in the U.S. What I mean is that the average Mexican knows nothing about firearms and probably hasn't even ever held one. Not to mention that the average Mexican in a town like Jerez would not have the stomach to impart violence - even in self-defense such as to shoot an extortionist dead on the spot. I live in northern Mexico in the middle of all this and let me tell you people are scared sh*tless of these guys. The assumption is that if one doesn't cooperate - or if one resists - the extortionists won't go away but rather they'll respond with much worse violence. ANd the local police? They're more scared than everybody and are forced to do the bidding of the cartels.

I've seen roadblocks set up by the narcos to extort money from motorists - with a police car and two motorcycle cops parked less than 50 meters away watching the whole thing.

Mexico has exploded in violence in 2008 and unfortunately I don't think we've seen ANYTHING yet. Mark my words: Mexico is the greatest security threat to the United States and if the new Obama administration doesn't face this fact head on then the violence will continue to spill over our borders in ways we can't even imagine.

[Cash]

G&J and my own contacts in Mexico confirm that the situation there is far worse than many people in the US realize. While the border territory gets particular attention from the media and US LE authorities, the rule of law is observed more in the breach than reality in many places along both coasts. Large refugee flows are a definite possibility as Mexican nationals — and people on the US side of the border — flee the violence.

As an aside: Serious sailing friends tell me that they and many others no longer cruise the Mexican coasts because of violence and attacks on private yachts, which don't attract the attention that attacks on commercial vessels would. This is anecdotal only, so caveat emptor.