THE BUBBLE

Nearly the entire world's population of 6.7 billion is now mediated in some form -- via phone to radio to TV to Internet -- and a majority have been mediated by two-way technologies.  For example, over 60% of these people or 4 billion now have wireless phones up from 15% in 2002, and another billion will have them in a year).  It's extremely hard now to find a sizable population from the Niger Delta to the Swat Valley in Pakistan to the favellas of Sao Paulo that haven't been fundamentally changed through connection to the global media sphere that:

• Shapes their perceptions
• Drives organizational design and interpersonal contact 
• Reorganizes their view of the world

There's no reason to think it will stop here.  Each iteration of connection is deployed faster than the previous and the value of being connected to the network (not only through Metcalfe's law but through radical improvements in the quality of the connection) is growing exponentially.  This likely means that every significant social movement, conflict, innovation, etc. will start/erupt in some corner of this media sphere and virally propagate within it.  

So, in short, if you want to accomplish anything in the future, you must be deeply connected to this media sphere, accomplished in its use, and immersed in its flows.  

The Bubble

This insight is why the Pentagon's approach to the global media sphere is so hilarious.  Bathed in a world view dominated by deprecated cold war logic/secrecy, it is in the process of trying to create an impervious bubble to shield itself from the very environment within which it is expected to fight.   This can be seen in everything from a growing plethora of buildings that bar any and all communication devices to the blocking of Web sites that contain dangerous ideas.  Bill Lind has a great post on this:

 The goal of the website blockers, it seems, is to cut American military men off from any views except those of DOD itself. In other words, the blockaders want to create a closed system. John Boyd had quite a bit to say about closed systems, and it wasn’t favorable.

In fact, John Boyd said that closed systems tend towards insanity (talking to itself without reference to the outside world).  He also made a great case that the ultimate goal of grand strategy is to "disconnect" or "isolate" the enemy on the moral, psychological, and physical levels while improving your own connectivity on the same level.  So, in essence -- by blocking access, hyping the threat posed by Chinese citizen hackers, and locking down facilities -- the US military is self-inflicting grand strategic failure on itself.   US servicemen are now being increasingly reduced to a level of isolation on par with an immunologically suppressed "bubble boy."  

Another approach is for the US military to learn to learn live in this media sphere.  To leverage it and operate within it on a level that befits the trust and treasure we routinely imbue it with. 

Avoiding it, by claiming it is too tough an environment for the US military to operate, is a path to complete obsolescence.