JOURNAL: Jamaica and Global Guerrillas

If Coke is somehow able to hold out and formally establish his community as a state within a state, then Jamaica's future is bleak
Brian Meeks, a professor of government at Jamaica's Mona campus of the University of the West Indies (reuters).

Jamaica has issued a month long state of emergency and sent troops/police into several slums in search of a local gang (the "Shower" Posse) leader, Dudus Coke.  Gunmen loyal to Dudus have not only successfully defended these slums with barricades, they've expanded into an adjacent "parish."  Gunmen have also attacked police stations across the cities of Kingston and St. Andrew and criminal gangs from across the country are streaming in to help the fight.

The conflict is a classic example of a hollow state (Jamaica) in conflict with local sources of order (Dudus).  For many in Kingston's slums, Dudus is a much better provider of political goods (education, security, and food) than the state, which translates into the popular support he gets locally (see inset).  Although his gang has more legitimacy than the state, this doesn't necessarily translate into military power, since he maintains a monopoly of force locally.  

As long as the conflict is mainly fought via barricades, the government has a chance of winning.  If it expands to include disruption of energy, water, and food to the wider population of Jamaica (inflicting costs on those outside the slums) via blockades of intersections by protesters and the intentional breaking of Kingston's infrastructure networks, the government is likely to lose.